Panic Of 1893

High Tariffs On Major Trading Partners Will Devastate The American Economy!

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If Donald Trump follows through on his threats to add a 25 percent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10 percent on Chinese imports, it will devastate the American economy in short order.

Besides worsening relations with our three major trading partners, it will cause massive rises in prices on all kinds of goods, such as:

Clothing
Furniture
Household Appliances
Toys
Food
Automobiles
Travel Goods
Smart Phones

It will worse our relations with our neighbors, and destroy the USMCA trade agreements, promoting distrust with both Canada and Mexico, who share thousands of miles of boundaries, and undermine our relationship with China, our leading rival in world affairs.

It will be destructive of international relations, and of American economic progress, which had advanced under Joe Biden, despite the inflation problem.

If Americans voted against the Democrats on the inflation issue, they will get a rude awakening under Donald Trump, as we will have similar situation as we had in the Great Depression due to Herbert Hoover and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930, and the Panic of 1893 due to Benjamin Harrison and the McKinley Tariff of 1890.

Day One Of Trump: Executive Orders On Mass Deportation And Tariffs, Insuring Economic Disaster!

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Every indication is that Donald Trump will make a dramatic, negative Inaugural Address on Monday January 20, 2025.

It is also, ironically, the celebration of Martin Luther King Day, with announcement of executive orders that will promote economic deterioration, and insure that the opposition Democrats will gain the edge for the 2026 Midterm Congressional elections and the Presidential Election of 2028.

Executive orders promoting mass deportation, and announcement of high protective tariffs on all foreign goods, will create a massive economic crisis in 2025.

There will be a great shortage of workers in many industries, including agriculture, education and health services, construction, wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing and mining, and leisure and hospitality,

There are over 28 million immigrants who work hard, pay taxes, and most obey the law, even if they came undocumented, for a chance at a better life, and to have the American dream.

It will be heartbreaking if many of these people, who add a great deal to the national economy, and have children who have lived and grown up in America, suddenly have their lives uprooted in an unjust and immoral manner.

And the prospective loss of their employment, as well as their consumption of goods and paying of taxes, will undermine the American economy in a massive way.

Tariffs, as in the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Panic of 1893 in the Gilded Age, under earlier Republican Presidents Herbert Hoover and Benjamin Harrison, respectively, will again prove to be destructive and undermine the lives of Americans.

They were fooled by Donald Trump to believe he would provide a prosperous economy, when his only intention is to benefit the rich with further tax cuts, as under Republicans Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump in his first term, adding massively to the national debt.

Economic Downturns And American Presidential Elections In History

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With the sudden, rapid decline in the economy, caused by the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the odds of Donald Trump winning reelection in November 2020 has dramatically declined!

Economic Downturns ALWAYS lead to defeat of Presidents running for reelection, as witness the following examples:

Martin Van Buren–Panic of 1837, loses in 1840.

James Buchanan–Panic of 1857–chose not to run for reelection, but Republican party opposition won in 1860 with Abraham Lincoln.

Ulysses S. Grant–Panic of 1873, Republican successor to Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, lost by massive margin of 250,000 votes in 1876 election, but won a disputed Electoral College vote over Democrat Samuel Tilden.

Benjamin Harrison–Panic of 1893 (evident in late 1892), loses in 1892.

Herbert Hoover–Great Depression (1929 and after), loses in 1932.

Jimmy Carter–Recession of 1980, loses in 1980.

George H W Bush–Recession of 1992, loses in 1992.

John McCain–Great Recession 2008-2009, successor Republican candidate for George W. Bush, loses in 2008.

A Massive Economic Recession, Possibly Depression, Is On The Horizon, And Timing Is Crucial

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America has had its longest economic expansion in its history, more than 10 years, brought about under Barack Obama, and continuing under Donald Trump, but would have continued if Hillary Clinton had been inaugurated.

But what goes up must come down, the “gravity rule”, and Donald Trump has insured a future massive recession, maybe even a depression, by his insane policy on tariffs.

China is punishing us in the tariff wars, and Trump has lied to the American people about who suffers when such wars occur. It is NOT China, but American consumers, and American farmers, and this will lead to a massive revolt against Donald Trump 15 months from now.

If Trump studied history, he would know that two past Republican Presidents, Benjamin Harrison in 1892, and Herbert Hoover in 1932, suffered massive defeat as a result of the McKinley Tariff of 1890 and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930. It led to the Panic of 1893 and the Great Depression of 1929.

But Trump has no knowledge of history, or economics, or of any topic imaginable, as he is easily the most ignorant, clueless, and purely stupid President we have had, and makes Warren G. Harding and George W. Bush look like scholars by comparison.

The issue is WHEN the economic collapse will come, and hopefully, before the election, as if it happens after, and Donald Trump is reelected, he will do nothing to alleviate the worst aspects of the coming recession or depression, and will have four years to impoverish America further, and incite white working class people against women and minorities, who he will blame for his own shortcomings.

Open Civil War could come as a result, and lead to the total destruction of the Constitution and Bill of Rights, and the great American image as the beacon of freedom and democracy could be permanently destroyed.

So we must hope that the collapse, as painful as it is, will occur in time to lead to a massive defeat of Donald Trump, with a Democratic President coming in to save us, as with Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933 and Barack Obama in 2009.

Tariffs And Republican Depressions: Benjamin Harrison, Herbert Hoover, Now Donald Trump?

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Protective tariffs made sense in the time of Alexander Hamilton and the time of Henry Clay.

But in the late 19th century, big business corporations were able to create higher tariffs that were detrimental to the American worker, consumer, and economy, with the assistance of the corrupt Republican Party of the period.

In 1890, under Republican President Benjamin Harrison, we saw the passage of the McKinley Tariff, named after the future President, and it undermined the economy and contributed to the disastrous Panic of 1893, which affected the nation until 1898.

In 1930, months after the Stock Market Crash, Republican President Herbert Hoover, ignoring the pleas of hundreds of economists, signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, which caused a great worsening of the developing Great Depression.

As the decades went by, most Republicans and intelligent Democrats realized that high tariffs were not good, and free trade agreements developed in the 1990s.

Some far left liberals and some far right conservatives joined forces to fight this, and now Donald Trump has declared the inception of “Tariff Wars”, which will bring down the American economy, harm consumers and farmers, and cause unemployment to rise.

Trump is alienating the whole world–including China, Canada, Mexico, the European Union, and more–and instead will destroy the economic lives of millions of his own supporters, if he is not stopped from his crazy, lunatic actions!

Assuming we cannot stop what he is doing, the Republicans will suffer a blood bath, that will put the Republican Party in the dustbin of history.

It is time for Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell and the Republicans in Congress to show some “cajones”, and turn against Trump before he totally destroys the nation economically, and takes unto World War III against North Korea, who would be helped by China, and Iran, who would be helped by Russia.

The War Cabinet Emerges: Larry Kudlow, Mike Pompeo, And John Bolton: Great Depression And Aggressive War Against North Korea And Iran On The Horizon!

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Donald Trump has now forced out Gary Cohn, Rex Tillerson, and H. R. Mc Master, and replaced them with Larry Kudlow, Mike Pompeo, and John Bolton, and this turnover after only 14 months in the White House is a danger sign of trouble ahead.

Trump’s “Tariff Wars”, discouraged by Cohn, now will move forward, and Tillerson and Mc Master, both strong in their criticism of Trump oriented foreign policy of “America First”, upending traditional foreign policy for 70 years, now will move into a phase of aggressiveness in foreign policy that is likely to lead to warfare.

One can now expect that we might end up in a Great Depression, or at least a Great Recession, as we are going down the road of protectionism, which was pursued by Benjamin Harrison in 1890 with the McKinley Tariff, which led to the Panic of 1893; and also pursued by Herbert Hoover in 1930 with the Smoot Hawley Tariff, which made the already begun Great Depression much more deeper.

And we can expect that with Mike Pompeo and particularly, John Bolton, two hawks in foreign policy, the first being a Tea Party activist elected to the House of Representatives, and the second, unable to be confirmed by a Republican Senate to be United Nations Ambassador, and only there for less than a year as a recess appointment under George W. Bush, and very much advocating “regime change” regarding North Korea and Iran, we can expect two wars before the year 2018 is over.

Trump may be thinking that getting engaged in two wars will cause “patriots” to rally around the flag, and help the Republicans to retain their control of both houses of Congress, and one must recall that in Presidential years, anytime there there has been a war, the President running for reelection has always won.

So Trump might be planning to use war as a way to a second term in office, which history must make every sane person be alarmed over such prospect!

Republicans Gave Us The “Panic” Of 1873, “Panic” Of 1893, The Great Depression, And The Great Recession, And Are Now Further Harming America With Tax Cuts For Wealthy And Corporations

Ronald 30 Comments

The Republican Party gave us the Great Depression of 1929 under Herbert Hoover, caused by Republican policies under Calvin Coolidge.

President Franklin D. Roosevelt, the Democrats, and the New Deal programs saved millions of Americans in the years from 1933 to 1939, when the military buildup for a potential entrance into World War II finally led to a total recovery of the economy.

Earlier, in the 1870s, Republican President Ulysses S. Grant presided over the Panic of 1873, which lasted until 1879, also under a Republican Congress.

In the early 1890s, Republicans, under President Benjamin Harrison, undermined the economy, and as Democrat Grover Cleveland succeeded Harrison in the White House, America entered the Panic of 1893, which did not end until 1898, and entrance into the Spanish American War.

And in late 2007 until early 2009, we had the Great Recession under Republican President George W. Bush, the worst situation since Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression, and it took the entire Barack Obama Presidency to bring unemployment down from 10 percent to under 5 percent, and the stock market grew by close to 250 percent.

Obama accomplished a revival that was greater than FDR, and without going to war.

Now, the Republicans are trying to ram through a massive tax cut for corporations and the wealthy top one to two percent, which will further harm America. It is likely to lead to another Great Recession, made worse by the likelihood that the Republicans will attempt to undermine Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid in 2018, because of lessened funding with the cut in taxes collected. This will force massive cuts in the social safety net of the New Deal of FDR and the Great Society of President Lyndon B. Johnson.

Troubled Second Terms Of Presidents Common Theme

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Sadly, it is much more likely that a second term in the Presidency will downgrade the historical image of that President, no matter how successful he might have been in the first term.

Below is a list of second term Presidents— including those who succeeded to the Presidency during the term, and then were elected on their own—who faced adversity big time in that last term in the Presidency, indicating the negative developments.

Thomas Jefferson—-The Chesapeake Affair, and the Embargo Act.

James Madison—The War of 1812, and burning of the White House and the US Capitol by the British.

Abraham Lincoln—Assassinated within six weeks of starting second term of office.

Ulysses S. Grant—-Exposure of Credit Mobilier Scandal, and the Panic of 1873.

Grover Cleveland (non consecutive terms)—Panic of 1893, Pullman Strike, Cancer surgery on the President’s jaw in secret.

William McKinley—Assassinated after six months of his second term in office.

Woodrow Wilson—-Controversy over Versailles Treaty and League of Nations, the Red Scare, and the stroke which paralyzed him in his last 18 months in the Presidency.

Franklin D. Roosevelt—-Split in the Democratic Party over the Supreme Court “Packing” plan, attempted “Purge” of Southern Democrats, Recession of 1937-1938, and controversy over isolationism and World War II.

Harry Truman—After finishing the term of FDR, facing the Second Red Scare and the Korean War controversy.

Dwight D. Eisenhower—The Soviet move into space with Sputnik, and the U-2 Spy Plane Incident with the Soviet Union.

Lyndon B. Johnson—The escalation of the Vietnam War, and the invasion of the Dominican Republic, both highly controversial.

Richard Nixon—The Watergate scandal and the move to impeach, and the resignation.

Ronald Reagan—The Iran Contra Scandal

Bill Clinton—The Monica Lewinsky Scandal, and the Impeachment Trial.

George W. Bush—The Hurricane Katrina disaster, and the Great Recession.

Let us hope for better fortunes for Barack Obama in his second and last term!

Second Term Presidencies Are Difficult: The Odds Against Success Of Barack Obama!

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When one examines two term Presidencies, it is clear that there is a great likelihood of disappointment and failure as the President becomes a “lame duck”, and particularly, so after the midterm elections, as everyone looks forward to the race for his successor in office.

The following Presidents had difficult second terms:

Thomas Jefferson–with the Chesapeake Affair
James Madison–with the British attack on Washington DC during the War of 1812
Ulysses S. Grant–with the Panic of 1873 and exposure of the Credit Mobilier scandals
Grover Cleveland–with the Panic of 1893 and the Pullman Strike
Woodrow Wilson–with the First World War and the Treaty Of Versailles and his stroke
Franklin D. Roosevelt–with the failure of the Supreme Court “Packing” Plan and Recession Of 1937-1938
Harry Truman–with the Korean War and the Red Scare (McCarthyism)
Richard Nixon–with the Watergate Scandal
Ronald Reagan–with the Iran-Contra Scandal
Bill Clinton–with the Monica Lewinsky Scandal and the Impeachment Trial
George W. Bush–with the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars and Hurricane Katrina and failed attempt to privatize Social Security

The only Presidents to have successful second terms were:

George Washington
James Monroe
Andrew Jackson
Theodore Roosevelt
Dwight D. Eisenhower

Barack Obama hopes to bring about:

Immigration Reform Legislation
Gun Control Legislation
Climate Change Legislation
Stability in International Affairs

The likelihood of success is very doubtful, however, with so much division, conflict, turmoil, and polarization, caused by the Tea Party Movement and the Republican control of the House of Representatives.

At most, Obama might be able to promote changes in the judiciary, particularly on the Supreme Court, if vacancies occur, as is expected, but even there, it is assured there will be major battles over every appointment, and the possibility of filibustering nominees.

This reality is already showing itself with the interference and opposition to Susan Rice to be Secretary of State, before she was ever considered for nomination, and now Chuck Hagel, a possible choice for Secretary of Defense, who despite being a Republican, has already built up major opposition in the party that he represented in the Senate for 12 years from the state of Nebraska!

There seems the likelihood that no matter what Obama does or says, he will have vehement opposition, not only during the first two years, but even in his last two years as a “lame duck”, having less influence each month as the Presidential Election Of 2016 approaches!