Patrick Murphy

Final Projections On Congressional Elections: The House Of Representatives And US Senate 2016

With five days to go to the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2016, I wish to state what I believe will be the likely results in the House of Representatives and the US Senate.

It is very difficult to project the results in 435 Congressional elections, but it is clear that under present circumstances, and with the existent gerrymandering, the Republican Party has a tremendous edge in House races, and they have a 30 seat edge over the majority of 218 seats required.

Presently the balance in the House is 247-188, and I forecast that the Democrats will gain 18-20 seats, to a total of 229-206 or 227-208, a major gain, but not enough to gain control.

So we will have divided government, as we had in 2011-2014, but with the Senate assuredly going Democratic from a present total of 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats, to at least 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans–a six seat gain.

Illinois–Tammy Duckworth
Indiana–Evan Bayh
Wisconsin–Russ Feingold
New Hampshire–Maggie Hassan
Pennsylvania–Kathleen McGinty
North Carolina–Deborah Ross

Also, three other seats are possible:

Florida–Patrick Murphy
Missouri–Jason Kander
Arizona–Ann Kirkpatrick

Finally, Nevada will elect Catherine Cortez Masto to replace Harry Reid, keeping that seat Democratic.

So if everything went well, the maximum Democrats in the Senate would be 55-45, which would be significant, since in 2018, the Democrats have to protect two thirds of the open seats, and the party in the White House tends to lose seats in midterms, so if only 52, the Democrats might lose the Senate two years hence!

Two Very Young Democrats Who Could Shape Future Of US Senate: Patrick Murphy (Florida), Jason Kander (Missouri)!

The minimum age to be a United States Senator is 30, and right now, we have two young Democrats seeking to become part of the upper house of Congress.

Congressman Patrick Murphy is running against Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and is only 33 years old; and Jason Kander, Missouri Secretary of State, is running against Senator Roy Blunt, and is only 35 years of age.

They would be the youngest members of the US Senate next year, and among the small number historically who have been Senators at such young ages.

They both offer “fresh blood” to the Democratic Party and the nation, and both could be considered, if successful and later re-elected in six years, as long range possibilities for higher office over the next generation of American politics.

We need younger Democrats to succeed and lead us into the future, as the “baby boomer” generation is having its “last hurrah” this year.

New ideas and inspired leadership will guarantee long range success, and both Florida and Missouri are significant states that could play a major role in the future in Presidential politics.

Marco Rubio And John McCain In Trouble As Hillary Clinton Gains in Florida And Arizona

Marco Rubio and John McCain are in trouble as Hillary Clinton gains in Florida and Arizona.

Rubio, who was humiliated by Donald Trump in the Florida GOP Presidential primary, only winning his home county of Miami-Dade, and had the worst attendance record in the Senate, and said he did not like being a Senator, now wants to come back.

But Patrick Murphy, the Democratic Congressman challenging him, is edging closer in polls, as Hillary Clinton seems very likely to win the state, with more Democratic registration, particularly with Puerto Ricans from the island migrating in large numbers in last couple of years to Orlando and other areas of Central Florida.

McCain, always seen as insufficiently conservative by many in Arizona, is witnessing a growing likelihood that Clinton could win Arizona, with increased numbers of Hispanic and Latino voters, and his race against Ann Kirkpatrick, Congresswoman from the First District, being very close in the polls. So after 30 years in the US Senate, and being the nominee of the party for President in 2008, McCain, at age 80, may face mandatory retirement in November!

The Future Of The Democratic Party: Younger Liberals In The US Senate

When one sees that Maryland Senator Barbara Mikulski, California Senator Barbara Boxer, and Nevada Senator Harry Reid are retiring in 2016, and know that other older Senate Democrats have limited time left in the Senate, it makes it clear that it is time to examine who among the “younger” generation of liberal Senate Democrats may be perceived as the future of the Democrats beyond Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and even Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.

Even if Hillary Clinton becomes President, where is the hope for liberal Democrats in the future, as there are very few Democratic governors. The “youth” movement in the Democratic Party is therefore in the hands of the following younger liberal Senate Democrats:

Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy (41)
Hawaii Senator Brian Schatz (42)
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker (45)
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (48)
Colorado Senator Michael Bennet (50)
Delaware Senator Christopher Coons (51)
Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin (53)
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar (54)
Michigan Senator Gary Peters (56)
Virginia Senator Tim Kaine (57)
Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley (58)
Rhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (59)

These are the present Democratic hopes for the future, to make an impact on the level of Mikulski, Boxer, Reid, along with Vermont Senator Patrick Leahy, California Senator Diane Feinstein, Florida Senator Bill Nelson, Maryland Senator Ben Cardin, Illinois Senator Dick Durbin, Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal, Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey, New Mexico Senator Tom Udall, Oregon Senator Ron Wyden, Rhode Island Senator Jack Reed, Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow, Washington Senator Patty Murray, New York Senator Chuck Schumer, Minnesota Senator Al Franken, and Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, as well as Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.

Of course, more liberal Senate Democrats yet unknown could be elected in 2016, including Kamala Harris in California and Patrick Murphy in Florida, and hopefully, the Democrats will take back control of the United States Senate, and some new Democratic governors might be elected, assuming a coattail effect of the candidacy of the Democratic nominee in the Electoral College, still highly likely!

Marco Rubio Faces Problems In Presidential Bid And Florida Senate Reelection Contest

Florida Senator Marco Rubio is not having good tidings lately, as he considers whether to run for President in 2016, or seek a second Senate term.

Florida does not allow a candidate to be on the ballot for two political races, so Rubio must decide his future.

At this point, polls indicate he is way behind fellow Floridian Jeb Bush for support, even within the Sunshine State, among Republicans for the Presidential nomination.

Rubio has alienated many Tea Party types and others in the Republican Party for having worked for immigration reform, and then backing away from it under harsh criticism by the Republican right wing base.

Rubio has also indicated frustration being a United States Senator, and he faces a potential threat from a number of Democrats for his seat, whether he runs again for it or chooses to leave the Senate to run for President.

Democratic National Chairwoman and Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Congressman Patrick Murphy, and believe it or not, former Governor Charlie Crist, and even Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, are all seen as interested in the race, and Rubio cannot count on South Florida for support, with three South Floridians, including comparatively moderate Murphy, potentially running.

Of course, there would be major fireworks in a Democratic primary, with both Wasserman Schultz and Crist having antagonized many while serving in government and running for office, which might give Murphy an advantage, and possibly even Levine, a comparative newcomer to politics like Murphy is, as well.

The 113th Congress Most Diverse Congress In History

One of the greatest results of the Congressional Elections of 2012 is the tremendous diversity that will be present in the upcoming 113th Congress, which begins on January 3.

Just in the new membership, there will be:

4 African Americans
10 Latino Americans
5 Asian Americans
24 Women
2 Hindus
1 Buddhist
1 Non theist
4 openly gay
1 openly bisexual
1 gay of color
4 born in the 1980s

It will include such likely stars of the future as:

Joaquin Castro of San Antonio, whose brother, Julian Castro, is Mayor of that city
Joe Garcia, who is the first Cuban Democrat to represent Miami
Ted Cruz, second Cuban Republican Senator, from Texas
Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, first Hindu Congresswoman
Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, first Buddhist Senator
Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, Iraq War hero and diabled from her service in the war
Lois Frankel of Florida, former Mayor of West Palm Beach
Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, professor and promoter of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, first openly gay Senator
Patrick Murphy of Florida, youngest member of the new House
Joseph Kennedy III, son of former Congressman Joseph Kennedy II, and grandson of Robert Kennedy

It will be a most interesting Congress coming up in 2013-2014!

Fantastic Victory For Florida And America: The Defeat Of Congressman Allen West, And The Election Of Patrick Murphy To Congress!

Finally, two weeks after the election, the victory of Patrick Murphy over Congressman Allen West in the new 18th Congressional District of Florida has been accomplished!

West has refused to concede, despite Murphy’s 2,000 plus vote lead, but he finally gave up the fight today!

West’s loss, along with defeated Congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, by Tammy Duckworth, are the two biggest Democratic victories in the House of Representatives against the Tea Party Republican mentality which elected both of them two years ago.

West was a literal nightmare, totally rude, obnoxious, inappropriate in his attacks on other members of Congress, including Debbie Wasserman Schultz, his colleague in South Florida, and head of the Democratic National Committee, and also disturbing to the extreme for his statements that most members of the Democratic Caucus were Socialists and Communists, leading this author to call him the “black Joseph McCarthy”!

West is very unstable, and seriously needs a psychiatric examination, particularly because of his abuse of an Iraqi prisoner of war in 2003, for which he was drummed out of the military, and forced into retirement. West has an anger problem, and he is a divisive figure, who has no asset worthy of being in public office ever again!

Meanwhile, young Patrick Murphy offers the opportunity for a talented accountant with an open mind, who really cares about all of the people in his district, and is certain to do a positive job in the House of Representatives. Florida and his 18th Congressional district have made a great judgment in giving Murphy the responsibility to speak for them in Washington, DC. He is certain NOT to disappoint!

Good Chance That Most Despicable Republican House Members Will Lose Reelection On Tuesday

With the election just three days away, it seems as if some House Republicans, of the Tea Party variety, might be kicked out of their seats in the House of Representatives.

These would include members that this author has written about in negative terms over time, including:

Michele Bachmann of Minnesota
Steve King of Iowa
Joe Walsh of Illinois
Allen West of Florida

The chance to defeat Paul Ryan in Wisconsin and Eric Cantor in Virginia, sadly, seems less likely, but at least Ryan is NOT going to be Vice President of the United States after Tuesday.

But the chance to have Jim Graves, Christie Vilsack, Tammy Duckworth, and Patrick Murphy in the House of Representatives as new Democratic members is something very satisfying!

And in the Florida Congressional district that Allen West represented during these past two years, the election of Lois Frankel over Republican nominee Adam Hasner also seems very likely, another great addition to the House of Representatives!

Republicans Condemn Downturn In Unemployment, Claim Conspiracy, Condemn Bureau Of Labor Statistics As Corrupt: Showing True Contempt For Unemployed!

The Bureau of Labor Statistics contains statisticians and economists who pride themselves on their work, and have a firewall to prevent any doubts about their work.

But it is easy to condemn government ‘bureaucrats”, and Republicans have now promoted a conspiracy theory, that Barack Obama is manipulating that revered agency, setting up lower unemployment numbers just in time for the Presidential Election of 2012. This is the theory promoted by Congressman Allen West of Florida, Senator John McCain of Arizona, and other irresponsible Republicans, angry over the dramatic drop in unemployment from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent, the first time unemployment has been under 8 percent since the Obama Presidency began, and occurring just a month before the election.

So when more people gain employment, that is bad news, as it works against the Republican attempt to prevent Barack Obama from having a second term in the White House. It also shows the contempt of the Republican Party toward those who are unemployed! Instead of celebrating the wonderful event, instead besmirch hard working, loyal federal government employees as Obama lackeys, tainting the whole Bureau of Labor Statistics!

But think about it: Why, if the Bureau of Labor Statistics is being controlled by Obama, did it take until now to bring unemployment numbers down? It could have been done a year ago, so as to make the Republican campaign more difficult, instead of giving them the economy issue that they could hold over the head of Barack Obama constantly! The whole concept of collusion is so preposterous that it reflects badly on West, McCain and others!

One could excuse the West statements, as he is a well known whacko in trouble in his Florida district, as his Democratic opponent, Patrick Murphy, is leading in many polls. But for McCain, Barack Obama’s opponent in the Presidential Election of 2008, it again indicates the dual personality of the Arizona Senator—sometimes responsible in his utterances, and other times, totally loony and nutty—a good sign that maybe McCain should resign, as his behavior is truly embarrassing, and maybe he should just retire and enjoy his family, and stop his reckless, conspiratorial accusations, with no backing, which embarrass him and remind us that his prime is past!

As has been commented by others, the true answer is that EDUCATION is the best way to bring down unemployment, and that there are seasonal variations up and down in unemployment. The idea, that employment numbers are finally starting to improve greatly, should be celebrated by any patriotic American, who should be happy that unemployment is down and employment is up!

But the Republicans only see it as politics, since they refuse to take responsibility for the fact that it was under their watch that the Great Recession occurred, just as was so with the Great Depression eighty years ago! George W. Bush was the updated Herbert Hoover, without the integrity and intelligence of Hoover!

And again, a reminder, EDUCATION is the best guarantee of employment. So Asians have an unemployment rate of 4.8 percent last month; whites have 7 percent; Latinos have 9.8 percent; and African Americans have 13.4 percent. Also, college educated have an unemployment rate under 5 percent, while high school graduates are almost double that rate, and dropouts even higher!

So instead of complaining, what Republicans, Democrats and everyone who is independent should be doing is promoting EDUCATIONAL opportunities as the way to insure the future of the American economy!

Patrick Murphy, Tammy Duckworth, Jim Graves, Wayne Powell, Rob Zerban, Christie Vilsack—Congressional Candidates Challenging Six Targeted Republicans In House Of Representatives!

The Democratic Party not only hopes to keep Barack Obama in the Presidency, but also to elect a House of Representatives majority in November, and keep control of the US Senate.

Six Republicans are particularly being targeted for defeat in the House of Representatives, and were they all to be “retired”, the nation would be far better off!

So we have Patrick Murphy of Florida, challenging Allen West, who has called the Democrats Communists and Socialists and attacked Debbie Wasserman Schultz as not worthy of being treated as a lady!

So we have Joe Walsh of Illinois, challenged by Tammy Duckworth, an Iraq War veteran who lost both legs and one arm, and yet, Walsh thinks she does not deserve respect for her heroism; and he is also a bad parent, as he owes back child support payments over $125,000 to his former wife; and also constantly insults constituents at his public gatherings.

So we have Jim Graves challenging Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, who ran for President in 2012, and has been a total terror as a Tea Party activist, calling Democrats “UnAmerican” in their loyalty, and is constantly coming across as nutty and loony in all her public utterances in the past six years in Congress. She is now seen as in serious trouble, and Graves seems to have a good chance to defeat her and remove her from public life!

So we have Wayne Powell challenging House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in his Virginia district, and the opportunity to retire Cantor, who has worked to undermine Speaker John Boehner and has cooperated with the Tea Party Movement, and shown he has no principles other than his own ambitions, makes him an excellent target! His arrogance is a good reason to remove him from Congress,and end his chances of moving higher in House leadership!

So we have Rob Zerban, challenging Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate, and head of the House Budget Committee, in his Wisconsin district. The chance to defeat Ryan twice is just too good to pass up!

And we have Christie Vilsack, wife of the former Iowa Governor Tom VIlsack, who is now Secretary of Agriculture under President Obama, who is challenging long time Congressman Steve King, who has been one of the wackiest, craziest members of the Republican Congressional majority, serving for ten years in the House, and being one of the leaders of the Tea Party Movement over the past few years.

It would be a great day for sanity and reason if all, or some of these leading Republicans in the House of Representatives were kicked out of Congress! Giving campaign contributions to Murphy, Duckworth, Graves, Powell, Zerban, and Vilsack would be an excellent investment!