Population Growth

Likely Changes In Electoral Votes And Congressional Seats As Result Of 2020 Census Figures

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We are two years away from the 2020 Census, which will determine:

Electoral Vote Changes for 15 or 16 states
Congressional Seat Changes for 15 or 16 states
Federal Funding of Domestic Programs for all states

With Donald Trump’s attempt to cut population growth in the Census by putting fear into undocumented immigrants filling out the Census forms, it could affect all of the above.

As things now stand, 6 states are certain to gain electoral votes and Congressional seats, while 9 other states lose electoral votes by 2024, and Congressional seats by the 2022 midterm elections.

Interestingly, California, which has regularly gained multiple seats for decades, has not grown enough in comparison to the total population of the entire nation, so will for the first time ever gain no seats at all. Of course, with many undocumented immigrants, more than any other state, there is a theoretical possibility that California could, conceivably, lose a seat if enough of this group do not fill out Census forms.

The state of Virginia also has not grown enough, just like California, so is unlikely to gain a new electoral vote or Congressional seat.

Texas will likely gain 3 electoral votes and seats, while Florida will gain 2, and with Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, and Oregon all gaining one each. All these states are in the Sun Belt, except Oregon in the Pacific Northwest.

So a total of 9 seats and electoral votes will be gained by a total of 6 states, which means those 9 seats will come from 9 different states, with 7 coming from the Northeast (Rhode Island, New York, Pennsylvania) and Midwest (Ohio, Michigan Minnesota, Illinois), and two from the South (West Virginia, Alabama).

It is also possible with changes in population in the next three years, that an additional seat could be lost by Illinois, and gained by Montana in the Pacific Northwest, which has lost a seat before, and might gain it back.

So at a maximum, 16 states will see their electoral votes and Congressional seats change, 7 gaining as a maximum and 9 losing as a maximum. The other 34 states will have no change at all.

Also, with Rhode Island about to lose a seat, it will be left with only one Representative At Large, joining Alaska, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Delaware, assuming Montana gains a seat. Otherwise, the total number of states with only one House seat would grow from 7 to 8.

Lowest Birth Rate Ever Recorded Since Statistics Were Kept: What It Means For America

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In 2010, we saw the lowest reported birth rate in America in its history, since statistics were kept, going back to 1920.

This includes all ethnic and racial groups, and even immigrants, notorious for having large families, are having smaller families.

This is due to many factors, including birth control methods, greater education of women, need of wives and husbands to work to survive and prosper, and recognition that quality of life is enhanced by having fewer children.

This means over time that the population of the United States will continue to age, and that creates a problem of how to take care of older people as there are fewer young people who work and pay taxes, so Social Security, Medicare, and other programs will be affected long term.

This puts America into the category of European countries which are over time on a trend to lose population as they age, and the reality that the mass of younger population will continue to grow in the “third world” nations, particularly in Asia, which already has 60 percent of the world’s population as it is right now.

So western civilization, as we define it, may be in a long range decline as the fulcrum of world affairs, being replaced by China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia and other rising Asian powers that are constantly rising in population.