Presidential Election Of 1992

Growing Likelihood Of Challengers To Donald Trump For GOP Presidential Nomination In 2020

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With Donald Trump being “individual No. 1”, clearly the center of probes by Robert Mueller, the Special Counsel, and also by the Southern District of New York, the likelihood grows of Republicans, who have just come off a 40 seat loss in the House and control of the lower chamber, being alarmed enough that serious challengers to Donald Trump’s nomination for a second term seem likely.

One can expect the following Republicans to consider challenges to Trump.

Outgoing Ohio Governor John Kasich.

Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse.

Utah Senator Mitt Romney, the 2012 Presidential nominee.

Outgoing Arizona Senator Jeff Flake.

Former South Carolina Governor and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

There could be others as well, but this list seems quite realistic, although the more that challenge Trump, the less likely there would be success.

It would be much easier if only one challenger took the bait, and went after Trump.

One can think back to 1979-1980, when President Jimmy Carter was challenged by both Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy and California Governor Jerry Brown.  

The one thing about even one challenger to a sitting President is that the result has been that while the President won the nomination, he ended up losing the election, with three of the four times losing massively.

William Howard Taft won only 23 percent in 1912 after being challenged by former President Theodore Roosevelt, and having to deal with TR as the Progressive Party nominee, as well as Democratic nominee Woodrow Wilson.

Jimmy Carter won only 41 percent in 1980 after being challenged by Ted Kennedy and Jerry Brown, and having to deal with an independent nominee, John Anderson, as well as Republican nominee Ronald Reagan.

George H. W.  Bush won only 37 percent in 1992 after being challenged by Pat Buchanan, and having to deal with independent nominee Ross Perot and Democratic nominee Bill Clinton.

At this point, before we begin the new year, it would seem as if John Kasich would have the upper hand on a challenge over others, and that Ben Sasse, representing a new generation of conservative leadership, would be an additional major challenge to Trump, were Sasse willing to mount a campaign.

Of course, any challenge to Trump would also be indirectly a challenge to Vice President Mike Pence as the “heir apparent”.

The Death Of The 41st President, George H. W. Bush, At Age 94

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This blogger woke up this morning to the news that the 41st President of the United States, George H. W. Bush, had died last night (November 30) at age 94, and five and a half months.

He had the longest life span of any President, although former President Jimmy Carter will surpass him in age on March 22, 2019.

Bush was one of the most experienced Presidents, with a tremendous resume particularly on national security and foreign policy issues. This included being a Houston, Texas, Congressman; United Nations Ambassador; Republican National Committee Chairman; Second Chief of the Liaison Office to the People’s Republic of China; Central Intelligence Agency Director; Vice President of the United States for two terms under President Ronald Reagan; and President of the United States for one term from 1989-1993.

Bush was an honorable, decent man, who knew his own shortcomings and admitted to it, but although he was the first Vice President to succeed his President by election since Martin Van Buren in 1836 after Andrew Jackson, he was unable to win a second term, losing to future President Bill Clinton, in an election which included businessman Ross Perot, who managed as an independent candidate to win 19 percent of the vote. This led to Bush having the second worst defeat for a sitting President, with 37 percent, only ahead of President William Howard Taft in 1912, gaining only 23 percent of the vote in a three way race with Woodrow Wilson and Theodore Roosevelt.

Bush will be best remembered for his leadership in the Persian Gulf War of 1991 against Iraq’s Saddam Hussein; his helping to end the Cold War with Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev and usher in the unification of Germany; the promotion of the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada; the concept of a “Thousand Points of Light” to encourage local activism to solve problems; the signing into law of the Americans With Disabilities Act of 1990 to provide equal opportunity for those Americans with disabilities; and the appointment of two Supreme Court Justices, David Souter and Clarence Thomas.

His decision to support tax increases caused a challenge by conservatives, led by Pat Buchanan, in the primaries of 1992, which he overcame, but that plus the recession America was suffering at the time of the election, along with the challenge of not just Bill Clinton, but Ross Perot, making the campaign a three way race, led to his defeat.

Bush lived to see his son George W. Bush become President, only the second such situation, after John Adams and John Quincy Adams, and he had nearly 26 years of retirement, and the longest Presidential marriage, until his beloved wife Barbara died in April, after 73 plus years of a devoted couple, who brought up five children.

Bush is ranked near the middle of all Presidents, generally between 17 and 20, depending on the poll of 44 Presidents, with his failure to win a second term a factor in why he has not risen higher.

His impact on America, however, has been massive, and it is likely his ranking among Presidents will rise in the coming years.

Five Or Even Six Potential California Presidential Candidates In 2020: Kamala Harris, Eric Garcetti, Eric Swalwell, Tom Steyer, Gavin Newsom, Jerry Brown

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California may have up to five or six Democratic Presidential candidates competing in the primaries and caucuses in 2020.

Senator Kamala Harris, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, and Congressman Eric Swalwell all are expected to announce in the coming months.

Additionally, entrepreneur and political activist Tom Steyer has been promoting the impeachment of Donald Trump in the past year, and the Los Angeles resident is believed to be planning to run as well.

And some think even newly minted Governor Gavin Newsom might also decide to announce for President.

And get this, even outgoing Governor Jerry Brown, age 80 now, might even, it is rumored, decide to try for the Presidency for a fourth time, as he did in 1976, 1980, and 1992.

California is one out of every eight people, and with the California primary slated for March 3, 2020, it could be a Californian who wins the primary, and gets the largest portion of delegates out of a total larger than any other state.

So to ignore California is to do so at one’s own risk.

Rumors That Jerry Brown Will Announce For A Fourth Run At Being President, After 1976, 1980, 1992 Despite Being 82 In 2020

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MSNBC will be having an hour presentation on Sunday evening about soon retiring Governor Jerry Brown of California, who has been on the political scene for a half century, and now at age 80 this past April, seems to be at the end of his public career.

Or is he?

Rumors are flying, and supposedly will be addressed on Sunday evening, that Brown is considering a fourth run at the White House, which he ran for in Democratic primaries against Jimmy Carter in 1976 and 1980, and against Bill Clinton in 1992.

Brown has had an amazing career as four time Governor of the Golden State from 1975-1983 and 2011-2019, along with being Oakland Mayor from 1999-2007 and California Attorney General from 2007-2011. Brown had the only defeat of his career when he tried for the US Senate in 1982, and if he had been elected, one can imagine he would still be in the Senate, running for his seventh term after what would have been 36 years in that upper chamber.

As Governor the past eight years, Brown has led the fight for the environment, for immigration, and against the Trump agenda during the past two years, and he seems unlikely to be quiet in the future, whether he runs for President in 2020 or not.

Brown has had his naysayers, but also his supporters over the years, and were he to announce for President for a fourth time, he would be the oldest of a number of potential candidates who would reach their 80s in the next Presidential term, including Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Michael Bloomberg, and John Kerry.

One thing seems clear, that at least two future octogenarians, Biden and Sanders, will definitely announce for President, with Bloomberg, Kerry, and Brown also potentially joining the fray.

One Term Presidents Who Lose Reelection Reassessed

Ronald 3 Comments

The historical image of One Term Presidents is that it is the worst thing imaginable to lose reelection, and that their historical image is damaged.

Actually, though, it could be argued that a one term Presidency often is a blessing in disguise in the long run.

Let’s examine what happened to the lives of Presidents defeated for a second term.

John Adams lost reelection to Thomas Jefferson in 1800, but went on to live another 25 years, see his son John Quincy Adams be elected and inaugurated President, and die at the age of 90 years and seven months, the all time record until the 21st century, when four other Presidents surpassed him in age.

John Quincy Adams lost reelection to Andrew Jackson in 1828, but went on to live another 19 years, and be elected to nine terms as a Congressman from Massachusetts, engaged in the fight against slavery as the only President elected by popular vote to an elected office after being President.

Martin Van Buren lost reelection to William Henry Harrison in 1840, but went on to live another 21 years, and be the Presidential nominee of the Free Soil Party in 1848, winning about 10 percent of the national popular vote, the first such third party to have an impact on a national election.

Grover Cleveland lost reelection to Benjamin Harrison in 1888, but came back to the White House by election in 1892, and later served on the Princeton University Board of Trustees after his retirement.

William Howard Taft lost reelection to Woodrow Wilson in 1912, but went on to become the only President also to serve as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court from 1921-1930.

Herbert Hoover lost reelection to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932, but went on to the longest retirement of more than 31 years, only surpassed by Jimmy Carter in 2012, and Hoover having growing respect for his post Presidential activities, and dying at the age of 90 in 1964, only five months less lifespan than John Adams, and the second President to reach that age.

Gerald Ford lost election to Jimmy Carter in 1976, after succeeding Richard Nixon under the 25th Amendment, but went on to growing recognition and respect in his nearly 30 years after his Presidency, setting the record for longevity until 2018, dying at the age of 93 and five months.

Jimmy Carter lost reelection to Ronald Reagan in 1980, but went on to become the most outstanding former President in his activities and commitments to public service, and has had the longest retirement of any President, nearly 38 years, and has just reached the age of 94, being 111 days younger than George H. W. Bush.

George H. W. Bush lost reelection to Bill Clinton in 1992, but went on to see his son, George W. Bush be inaugurated and serve two terms in the Presidency, and growing respect as he set the all time record of age 94 in June 2018.

Theoretical Possibility Of Nine Business People Or Celebrities With No Government Experience Who Might Run For The Presidency In 2020

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Donald Trump is the first totally non government experience candidate ever to win the Presidency.

Before him, Wendell Willkie for the Republicans in 1940, and Ross Perot, as an Independent in 1992 and 1996, also had no government experience.

With the horrific Trump experience, the question arises whether another business person or celebrity with no government experience might run for the White House in 2020, and might have a chance to win.

At least nine potential candidates have been mentioned, but most are not considered serious possibilities.

Oprah Winfrey , Kanye West, and Dwayne (The Rock) Johnson come from the entertainment world, but none of these has seemed serious about running, and somehow, with all three being African American, and Oprah being a woman, it is hard to imagine, without government experience, and just basically being a celebrity, that anyone of them would get very far.

Then, we have Mark Zuckerberg, the Facebook billionaire, who is Jewish and would be only 36 years old in 2020, and has controversy surrounding Facebook’s role in affecting the 2016 Presidential election. Also, he has made controversial statements, and comes across to many, including this blogger, as extremely arrogant, and needing much more maturity and judgment to even consider running at any time in the future.

Then we have Andrew Yang, who is an entrepreneur, promoting startups in business in many different cities across America. Yang, born of Chinese parents from Taiwan, would be 45 years old, and wants to promote a Universal Basic Income of $1,000 a month to all Americans 18-64, as part of his platform, and he has already announced for President, but the question is whether he can gain any traction.

Bob Iger, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Walt Disney Company, is Jewish, and is rumored to be interested, but there has been criticism of his leadership of Disney, and he would be close to 70 on Inauguration Day 2021.

Howard Schultz, the former Chief Executive Officer of Starbucks, is Jewish, and would be 67 years old if he won in 2020, and has a very liberal image, and seems to be seriously considering announcing his candidacy.

We also have Mark Cuban, who owns the Dallas Mavericks basketball team, is very outspoken, and has hinted at running for President. He has been all over the map politically, having expressed admiration for libertarian author Ayn Rand, but backing Hillary Clinton for President in 2016. Also Jewish in his religion, Cuban has been more of a public relations oriented person, much more noticed in the news media than most other businessmen, including Zuckerberg, Yang, Iger and Schultz. He would be likely a Republican candidate if he ran, as he calls himself fiscally conservative, although a social moderate by his own definition.

Finally, much more in the public eye since Donald Trump became President, is Tom Steyer, a billionaire hedge fund manager, philanthropist, environmentalist, liberal activist, and fundraiser, who has been on an active campaign to impeach Donald Trump, gaining a lot of attention. He has long been a Democratic activist, going back to Walter Mondale in 1984 through Hillary Clinton in 2016, and was considered to be a cabinet member twice under Barack Obama, for Secretary of the Treasury in 2009 and Secretary of Energy in 2013, but others were chosen. Steyer is often seen as the adversary of Charles and David Koch.

The only ones on this list of nine who this author and blogger see as “legitimate” are Andrew Yang and Tom Steyer, who seem to have the best credentials, but still, no desire here to have another businessman or celebrity without any government experience as our President in 2021.

In the “real world”, somehow, three African Americans (Winfrey, West, Johnson); one woman (Winfrey); four Jews (Zuckerberg, Iger, Schultz, Cuban); and one Asian American (Yang) potential candidates seems highly unlikely, in the political climate we are in, to have a real shot at being the nominee. So this means probably Tom Steyer, who is most “out there” in the present political climate and is a white Episcopalian, might be the one of the nine with the best potential. Had he actually served in Barack Obama’s cabinet, he might seem to many as a more legitimate candidate, as we have had Presidents who were never elected before the Presidency but were cabinet members, specifically William Howard Taft and Herbert Hoover.

The Trump experience makes it difficult to look at others in the non political world as better than having a Governor, Senator, Congressman, Mayor, or Cabinet Officer in the White House.

We shall see how far these nine possible candidates go in seeking the Presidency, as after the next 100 days, the announcement of Presidential candidacies, will rapidly emerge!

The Octogenarians And The Presidential Nomination Battle In 2020—Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Jerry Brown, Michael Bloomberg

Ronald 3 Comments

Soon, once the midterm elections of 2018 are over, no matter what happens, we will start to see the beginnings of the Presidential Election of 2020 campaign.

And in the Democratic Party, we have, in theory at least, FOUR soon to be Octogenarians who MIGHT decide to run for the nomination of their party.

All four would be in their 80s during the next term.

First, we have former Vice President Joe Biden, who would be 78 days after the 2020 election.

Then, we have Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who would be 79 at the time of the 2020 election.

We also have soon to be former Governor Jerry Brown of California, who would be seven months past 80 at the time of the 2020 election.

Finally, we have former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who would be three months short of 79 when the 2020 election occurs.

So all four would be in their 80s during their first term of office.

All but Bloomberg have actually been Presidential candidates, with Bloomberg flirting with it, but never taking the step.

Biden ran in 1988 and 2008, while Sanders ran in 2016, and Brown in 1976, 1980, and 1992.

The least likely to announce is Brown, but knowing his past history, who can say he would not announce?

Bloomberg seems second least likely to run, but is spending $80 million to help Democrats win the midterm elections in Congress and the states.

Both Biden and Sanders seem certainly to announce, in a field that could include more than 10 potential candidates.

If one had to project whether any of these four men might actually be the Democratic nominee, it would be Joe Biden, who is the most centrist of the four.

With both Sanders and Bloomberg being “independent”, outside the party membership, and both very unwilling to compromise or negotiate with party leaders, and with the Democrats insisting that only party members run for the White House, there would be massive conflict with either trying to take the Democratic nomination for the Presidency.

Truthfully, the best scenario would be a “NEW GENERATION”, someone in their 40s, 50s, or low to mid 60s, becoming the future of the party, rather than an “old timer”, who we would need to worry about more than normally, as to who their Vice President was, since the odds of an octogenarian serving a full term in the Presidency, would be quite a gamble!

The Long, Controversial Career Of California Governor Jerry Brown, Arguably Now The Best Governor In America As He Leaves Office At Age 80!

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California Governor Jerry Brown became 80 years old last week, and he has proved that an older political leader can be very effective, as he finishes his second consecutive term as the leader of the largest state, and the fourth term altogether going back nearly a half century.

Brown was elected Governor in 1974, when only 36 and served two terms of office until 1982. He was the youngest Governor in modern California history.

Twenty eight years later, at age 72, he was again elected in 2010 and is now finishing his second round of two consecutive terms in the California Governorship.

So over a period of 36 years, he served more years in office than all but a few state Governors in American history.

By the time he retires in January 2019, only Terry Branstad of Iowa, now Ambassador to China, with 22 years four months; George Clinton of New York serving 20 years and 11 months (in the late 18th and early 19th centuries); and South Dakota Governor William Janklow with 16 years and 7 days, will have served longer than Brown at 16 years and 5 days, with Alabama Governor George Wallace having one less day, at 16 years and 4 days–the only five Governors to have served 16 full years and more.

Brown, of course, also sought the Presidency in 1976 and 1980 against Jimmy Carter, and in 1992 against Bill Clinton. Additionally, he was California Secretary of State from 1971-1975, when he became Governor, and also Mayor of Oakland, California from 1999-2007 and California Attorney General from 2007-2011, when he was again elected Governor. Brown also ran for and lost a US Senate bid in 1982 to Peter Wilson, who later went on to be elected Governor of California in 1990 and 1994.

So altogether, he served in public office for 32 of the past 48 years, and was not in public office for 16 years after being in office for 12 years, but then had a “renaissance ” leading to a second period of 20 years. And even in that period of being out of office, he ran for the Presidency a third time.

Brown has always been controversial, but he is now acknowledged by many observers as being the best state governor in America, having revived the fortunes of California in his third and fourth round in Sacramento.

And he has been a leader in fighting Donald Trump and his agenda, particularly in regard to the environment, and on immigration.

So despite the fact that he would be 82 in 2020, some have wondered if he would seek the Presidency yet again 44, 40, and 28 years after earlier seeking the White House.

The odds of his announcing for President or being able to win the nomination and election are extremely long, but Jerry Brown has proved he cannot be judged by normal circumstances, and that if anyone can defy the odds, it is Jerry Brown!

Amazing Record Of Longevity Of Presidential Nominees And Of Presidential Running Mates For Vice President

Ronald 4 Comments

With Walter Mondale having reached the age of 90 yesterday, January 5, we have an amazing continuation of a record of age longevity of Presidential nominees, as well as Vice Presidential nominees.

The first such case was Strom Thurmond, the States Rights (Dixiecrat) Presidential nominee in the Presidential Election of 1948, who reached the age of 100 and a half, when he died in 2003. That is a record unlikely to be matched.

But beginning in 1972 and continuing through 1996, either one or both Presidential nominees and in most cases Vice Presidential nominees have reached the age of 90.

In 1972, Democratic Presidential nominee Senator George McGovern, died at the age of 90 in 2012, and Vice Presidential nominee Sargent Shriver died at age 95 in 2011.

In 1976, both Presidential nominees—Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter—reached the age of 90, with Ford dying at age 93 in 2006, and Carter on the way to surpassing Ford on March 15 of this year, but still behind George H. W. Bush, 111 days older than Carter. But also Vice Presidential nominees Walter Mondale and Bob Dole both reached the age of 90, with Dole now 94.

In 1980, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan both reached the age of 90, and Reagan died at age 93 in 2004, and again, Carter on the way to a final age competition with the senior Bush. And Mondale and Vice Presidential running mate George H. W. Bush both have reached the age of 90 plus.

In 1984, Reagan and Walter Mondale both would reach the age of 90 and counting for Mondale, as of yesterday’s 90th birthday, and George H. W. Bush has the all time record of age of Presidents as of now.

In 1988 and in 1992, George H. W. Bush would survive many health issues and is still adding to the all time record of longevity, but again in competition with Jimmy Carter.

Finally, in 1996, Republican Presidential nominee Bob Dole, who was Gerald Ford’s Vice Presidential running mate in 1976, has passed the age of 94 last July, and is still adding to his own longevity.

Joe Trippi, Campaign Manager For Many Democrats, Able To Promote Great Victory For Doug Jones In Alabama, A Turning Point For 2018

Ronald 2 Comments

One of the key figures who brought about the election of Doug Jones in Alabama was his masterful campaign manager, Joe Trippi.

Trippi managed to run a campaign that was brilliant in execution.

Trippi is well versed in Democratic campaigns for office, not successful on a regular basis as with Jones, but he is well regarded for his campaign strategies.

Among those he assisted in various campaigns for public office are:

Minnesota Senator and Vice President Walter Mondale and his Presidential campaign in 1984.

Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy and his Presidential campaign in 1980.

Colorado Senator Gary Hart and his Presidential campaign in 1988.

California Governor Jerry Brown and his Presidential campaign in 1992 and gubernatorial campaign in 2010.

North Carolina Senator John Edwards and his 2008 Presidential campaign.

Missouri House Minority Leader and Congressman Dick Gephardt and his Presidential campaign in 1988 after Gary Hart dropped out.

Trippi also was campaign manager for Vermont Governor and 2004 Democratic Presidential candidate Howard Dean.

Additionally, he assisted Senate elections of California Senator Alan Cranston, Maryland Senator Barbara Mikulski, and Oregon Senator Ron Wyden.

Hopefully, the Doug Jones election in a “Red” state will be a turning point nationwide in the midterm Congressional Elections of 2018.