Presidential Election of 2008

One Year To Presidential Election Of 2024, And Joe Biden Looks In Bad Shape!

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With one year to the Presidential Election Of 2024, President Joe Biden looks in bad shape, based on a New York Times-Siena College poll.

According to the poll, Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in five of six swing state—4 points in Pennsylvania; 5 points in Michigan and Arizona; 6 points in Georgia; 10 points in Nevada; and with Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin by 2 points.

These statistics are stunning and worrisome, but one must realize that the history of polling shows one year out is no judgment of what will occur on Election Day.

One year ahead, there were no predictions that Harry Truman would win a full term in 1948; or that John F. Kennedy would win in 1960; or Richard Nixon would win in 1968; or Jimmy Carter (an unknown) would win in 1976; or Ronald Reagan would win in 1980; or Bill Clinton would win in 1992; or George W. Bush would win in 2000; or that Barack Obama would win in 2008; or that Donald Trump would win in 2016.

Also, one must realize that never has a President lost reelection to an opponent he had first defeated since Benjamin Harrison lost reelection to Grover Cleveland in 1892.

And with Donald Trump likely to be convicted on some of the 91 charges over four indictments in the next year, to believe that he will be able to defeat the man who defeated him, for the first time in 132 years, is to be living in an era of delusion.

Assuming that the economy will continue to do better, and with international crises a major factor, the President in office is, historically, highly likely to win reelection, particularly against someone who represents chaos, corruption, and incompetence, and as a threat to the American democratic system and to international stability!

But it is also clear that the message and the efforts to reelect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and insure a Democratic controlled House of Representatives and Senate must move full scale ahead, as there is no time for any sense of relaxation about the future of the nation and the world at large!

Polls One Year Ahead Of National Elections Prove Nothing!

Ronald 4 Comments

National polling a year or more ahead of a national election is pointless, as much too often, it proves to be totally out of line with reality.

Also, elections are not decided nationally, but state by state, so therefore, the hysteria over the close polls on the Presidency showing a tight race should not cause people to panic.

At this point in many past election cycles, we were told Barack Obama was in bad shape in 2011; that Hillary Clinton was the guaranteed nominee in 2007; that Rudy Giuliani was the favored Republican candidate in 2007; that Howard Dean was favored in 2003; and on and on and on!

A year and more is an eternity, and the Democrats and Joe Biden still would be the favorite moving forward!

Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia (WANG)–The States Likely To Decide The Presidential Election Of 2024!

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Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center For Politics has come out with an estimate of what is likely to occur in the Presidential Election of 2024.

Sabato projects that the Democrats are ahead in states that add up to 260 electoral votes, ten short of the number needed to win the Presidency.

The Republicans are said to be ahead in states that add up to 235 electoral votes.

Democratic leaning states that are not solid include Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico.

Republican leaning states that are not solid include Texas, Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska.

So according to the Sabato estimate, there are only FOUR states that are truly “Toss-Ups”—Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia or the “WANG’ states, with a total of 43 electoral votes combined.

If everything as estimated occurred, Georgia with 16 electoral votes would be enough for the Democrats to win, while Arizona with 11 electoral votes, or Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes separately would also be enough for the Democrats to win, and with Nevada only having 6 electoral votes, so not enough to win.

Of course, this does not include the possibility of the two states which allow splitting of electoral votes–Maine and Nebraska–having a district vote for the opposition in that state’s popular vote count.

In 2008, Nebraska went for John McCain but gave one electoral vote to Barack Obama in the Second Congressional District; and in 2016, Maine went for Hillary Clinton, but gave one electoral vote to Donald Trump in the Second Congressional District.

Desperate Need For Immigration Reform For Past Generation

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In 1986, Republican President Ronald Reagan signed an immigration reform plan into law, legitimizing millions of migrants who might have come in without the normal channels.

Reagan understood that the lifeblood of the nation is immigration, as America has always been a land welcoming people from other lands who have suffered from violence, poverty, discrimination, and simple desire for a better life.

Everyone of us in America is here because earlier generations of immigrants took the arduous and often dangerous trip from foreign lands.

And yet, now, and for the entire 21st century, the Republican Party, with some exceptions, have blocked immigration reform under Republican President George W. Bush, and Democratic Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Many forget, conveniently, that Republican Presidentic candidate Senator John McCain of Arizona promoted such reform in his 2008 Presidential campaign, and before and after that time frame until his passing in 2018.

But now, the ugly nativism of most Republicans is distressing, and failing to realize that promoting more immigration is a long range strategy to deal with the aging of the American population, and the dire need for more young people to promote economic growth into the future.

Defeat Of Sarah Palin For Alaska House Seat A Major Win For Democrats As Midterms Loom!

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The victory of Mary Peltola, an Alaska Native, for the open House seat, over former Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin, is a major win for Democrats as the Midterm Elections of 2022 loom on the horizon over the next two months.

This is the first Democratic win in Alaska for the House seat in a half century, with Don Young holding the seat for the Republicans since his election in 1973 and until his death earlier this year, after a record setting 49 years, the longest of any House or Senate Republican in American history. His wife had been, ironically, an Alaska native!

While Peltola will have to compete for the seat again in November, it would seem likely that she would triumph over Sarah Palin once again, and retire the outspoken, Trump like supporter, from public life, or at least, from making moronic statements as Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert do regularly in the House of Representatives, embarrassing themselves and the Republican Party!

A Contrast In Two Republican Women: Day Of Reckoning Tuesday For Liz Cheney, Sarah Palin!

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Two Republican women politicians face the voters this coming Tuesday.

Congresswoman Liz Cheney, whose father is former Vice President Dick Cheney, faces what seems like a certain defeat for her statewide Congressional seat in Wyoming, as Harriet Hageman, endorsed by Donald Trump, is up to 30 points ahead in various polls.

This author and blogger does not agree with Liz Cheney on just about anything, except her courageous, principled stand against Donald Trump and his incitment of the January 6, 2021 US Capitol Insurrection, the most dangerous threat to American government institutions since the War of 1812.

She has worked as co-chair, with another Republican, Congressman Adam Kinzinger, on the January 6 House Committee, and has endured vicious attacks and repudiation by her Republican House colleagues.

She is a “Profile in Courage”, as is Kinzinger, and they are on the right side of history, against the great evil of MAGA, the right wing Fascist movement led by the most corrupt and dangerous President America has ever experienced!

It seems likely, assuming she loses her Congressional seat, that Liz Cheney will mount a Presidential campaign, if for nothing else, than to split Republican and conservative votes and insure that Donald Trump, or anyone who runs in his place for President as a Trump supporter, is defeated for the Presidency.

The survival of American democracy is at stake with Liz Cheney’s battle against evil!

On the other hand, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Senator John McCain’s Vice Presidential running mate in the Presidential Election of 2008, is coming out of the “woodwork”, and plaguing us again with her inane, dumb, clueless candidacy for the open House seat in her state, caused by the death of long term Congressman Don Young.

Sarah Palin is part of the extremist right wing, divisive deterioration of the Republican Party in the past quarter century, and as a supporter of Donald Trump, it is hoped she will be repudiated by the voters, as she has nothing positive to offer her state.

If she is elected to the House, she will be an annoying figure such as Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene, so hopefully she can be rejected, and returned to private life!

A Moment To Commemorate: 7,400 Entries Since August 2008, And Joe Biden And Sarah Palin Then And Now

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Today is a day of commemoration, as this is the 7,400th entry on “The Progressive Professor”, since its inception on August 11, 2008!

The first entry on August 11 was on the Vice Presidency, and Joe Biden was the center of attention as being the best choice, before his selection by Barack Obama.

And an entry on the disaster of Sarah Palin being chosen by John McCain for his Vice Presidential nominee, on August 29, was also the center of attention in that first month.

And now Joe Biden is in his second year as the 46th President, and Sarah Palin has come out of the woodwork to announce her candidacy for the vacant Alaska House seat!

So after 13 years and 8 months of posting articles on this blog, it is fascinating to look back at the beginning!

Sarah Palin Comes Back Into Politics In Alaska, With Death Of Long Term Congressman Don Young

Ronald 1 Comment

Former Alaska Governor and 2008 Republican Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin has come out of the woodwork, so to speak, to announce her candidacy for the statewide US House seat vacated by the passing of long time Congressman Don Young last month, after serving longer than any Republican member of either house of Congress in American history, a total of 49 years since 1973.

There are a slew of candidates running for that seat, but since Palin is a known factor, she probably will have an edge on the nomination and election to that seat, but we shall see.

If she wins, she will join the group of lunatics that are now disgracing themselves in the House of Representatives, such individuals as Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, and Madison Cawthorn, along with others who have served longer than the present term in the lower chamber.

Palin will wish to compete for craziness with such people, as she craves attention, but she remains the most disastrous Vice Presidential selection ever in American history.

Thank goodness John McCain, who came to realize the mistake he had made, putting her, theoretically a heartbeat away from the Presidency, never came to pass, with Barack Obama defeating McCain in the Presidential Election of 2008!

The Republican Accountability Project Priceless In Its Attack On Trump And His Supporters

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The Republican Accountability Project is dedicated to defending the principles of the Republican Party and is against Donald Trump and everything he stands for, including the January 6, 2021 US Capitol Insurrection.

In league with the earlier Lincoln Project, designed to undermine Trump in the 2020 Presidential Election cycle, those Republicans and conservatives in the earlier and present organizations are working to insure that the conservative values they share are able to prevent the future nomination of Donald Trump for President in 2024, and any other political leader who has been willing to sell their soul to support and court Donald Trump.

Those in the group include: George Conway, whose wife KellyAnne Conway, worked for Trump during his Presidency and still supports him; Steve Schmidt, who worked for John McCain in his 2008 Presidential campaign; John Weaver; Rick Wilson; Michael Steele, former head of the Republican National Committee in 2009-2010; Kurt Bardella; Susan Del Percio; Stuart Stevens; Max Boot; Jennifer Rubin; Bill Kristol; Mike Murphy; Miles Taylor; and Olivia Troye.

The ads the Republican Accountability Project has produced, and will continue to do so, hopefully will lead to the failure of Trumpism to keep a hold on the party as we near the Midterm Elections of 2022 and the Presidential Election of 2024!

Possibility That Neither Donald Trump Nor Joe Biden Will Be On Presidential Ballot In 2024

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The possibility now exists that neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden will be on the Presidential ballot in 2024.

There are good reasons for this scenario.

Joe Biden would be 82 a few weeks after the Presidential Election of 2024, and Donald Trump would be past 78 and a half at the time of the inauguration, making both of them the oldest Presidential contenders in American history.

Donald Trump faces multiple lawsuits, and the strong potential for prosecution, both criminal and civil, which could harm any chance of him being the Republican nominee.

And there are many conservatives and Republicans who would want to be rid of the menace of Donald Trump.

Joe Biden’s age, and the hints of possible cognitive tests being bandied about by critics, makes it harder for him to consider a second term, along with all of the problems he is dealing with, which might undermine his future, particularly if the Democrats lose the House of Representatives, and even, potentially, the US Senate.

The feeling of a fresh start, and younger candidates is very appealing to many Americans.

If it turns out that neither Trump nor Biden, and even Vice Presidents Mike Pence and Kamala Harris, are passed by as alternatives, which could be a possibility, then we would have a scenario rarely seen in US history, of Presidential tickets that have neither the President nor Vice President having been nominated for either office.

The only elections since 1824 where no one nominated was ever on a Presidential ballot before being chosen are the following 12 elections out of a total of 50 elections:

1844 election of James K. Polk
1852 election of Franklin Pierce
1868 election of Ulysses S. Grant
1876 election of Rutherford B. Hayes
1880 election of James A. Garfield
1884 election of Grover Cleveland
1896 election of William McKinley
1920 election of Warren G. Harding
1928 election of Herbert Hoover
1952 election of Dwight D. Eisenhower
2008 election of Barack Obama
2016 election of Donald Trump