Presidential Election of 2012

Disarray At Trump Tower: So Many Candidates, Some Totally Dangerous Or Ridiculous! And Major Problems For Midtown Manhattan!

Ronald 14 Comments

There is disarray in Trump Tower in Manhattan, and massive traffic issues below in midtown Manhattan.

Donald Trump seems to want to live in Trump Tower a lot of the time, rather than the White House, which creates major traffic, economic, and security issues.

Fifth Avenue and 56th Street is now barricaded, and traffic will become impossible, and trying to protect the President-Elect is a security nightmare, as it requires tremendous manpower of New York City Police and the Secret Service, and is creating problems for businesses, auto traffic, and pedestrians, which will only get worse.

But also, Trump seems totally disorganized, and rumors are spreading of some candidates for different positions in the government who are totally dangerous or ridiculous!

For Secretary of State, the candidates seem to include former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani; former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton; South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley; and former Massachusetts Governor and 2012 Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney. The first two named are dangerous for the State Department, as they have no sense of personal diplomacy, and are both loud mouths, with Bolton being the more scary. Haley adds good looks and a woman to the list, but no real qualifications to be Secretary of State. Mitt Romney is the most credible, but really has no diplomatic experience to speak of. And Haley and Romney were bitter opponents of Trump, and did not endorse him.

Then we have the crazy idea of Sarah Palin being Secretary of Interior or Secretary of Energy!

Already, we have Stephen Bannon as Chief Counselor and Senior Adviser in the White House, despite his racist, nativist, antisemitic, Islamophobic, homophobic, and misogynist behavior and utterances. And we have General Michael Flynn, fired by Barack Obama from the Defense Intelligence Agency leadership in 2014, who has also shown elements of antisemitism, and suggested that Hillary Clinton be jailed, to be National Security Adviser. These two appointments do not require Senate confirmation, but it is clear with the chaos in Trump Tower, that Donald Trump will have problems with confirmation of some of his cabinet and other appointments.

Donald Trump Delusional: North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia All Gone

Ronald 4 Comments

Donald Trump is totally delusional, running all over the nation, claiming he is winning, when it is assured he will lose big time in tomorrow’s election!

Trump seems to think he will win North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia, but they are all gone!

Trump will have trouble keeping “Red” states, including Arizona, Utah, and even Texas, and is assured to lose North Carolina, which went for Barack Obama in 2008 but for Mitt Romney in 2012.

Trump will have to keep all “Red” states, and win all “Swing” states too, or take a “Blue” state, and anyone who is betting on all that is a fool!

The surging Latino vote and women’s vote insures that Trump will lose Florida, and that will be, effectively, the end of the election before November 8 ends!

Final Projections On Electoral College And Presidential Election Of 2016

Ronald 5 Comments

Ok, the time has arrived for my final projection on the Presidential election of 2016.

I project that all Barack Obama states will go to Hillary Clinton, except for Iowa–25 of 26 states in 2012–18 “Blue” states plus DC, and 7 “swing” or “purple” states. Iowa would be the only “swing” or “purple” state that would go “Red”.

At the same time, two “Red” or Romney states–North Carolina and Arizona–would swing to the Democrats.

The math means 6 votes are subtracted from Iowa for Clinton, while 26 electoral votes are added to Clinton’s side, with 15 electoral votes from North Carolina and 11 electoral votes from Arizona.

So instead of 332 electoral votes for Obama, the final total for Clinton will be 352, against 186 for Donald Trump as compared to 206 for Romney.

Hillary Clinton would have 27 states to 23 for Trump, as compared to 24 for Romney, so gain of one state for the Democrats.

We shall see how accurate I am in this third round of Presidential Projections after 2008 and 2012.

A more detailed article has been published on History News Network yesterday, and is now posted on this blog as well, on the right hand side!

Looking Back At My Projections on the Presidential Races Of 2008 And 2012

Ronald 2 Comments

As I am about to project the Presidential race of 2016, it is a good idea to look back at my projections on this blog in 2008 and 2012.

In 2008, I projected a final electoral vote of 364-174 and 28 states, and I was only off by ONE electoral vote, as I projected the state of Missouri with 10 electoral votes would go for Barack Obama over John McCain, rather than Indiana with 11 electoral votes! So by winning Indiana, and not Missouri, Barack Obama won the Electoral College with 365-173.

In 2012, I projected a final electoral vote of 332-206 and 26 states, and was totally correct that Obama would defeat Mitt Romney!

So I hope I will be totally accurate this time, when I announce my projection tomorrow!

So for two elections, I was off by only ONE electoral vote, assuming wrongly that Missouri, not Indiana, would go for Obama in 2008!

A Hillary Clinton Alliance With Bernie Sanders And Elizabeth Warren For Progressive Change After The Election

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There are many progressives who are skeptical about Hillary Clinton’s commitment to progressive reform. They seem willing to allow Donald Trump to be elected, which is suicidal behavior.

That is unacceptable behavior, although it is understandable that Hillary Clinton’s husband, Bill Clinton, was far from a great progressive in his time, and this blogger has well expressed that reality over the years.

Readers of this blog know that the author was and is a Joe Biden fan, which also may not please the most left wing progressives.

But this blogger believes that insisting on purity is the road to disaster, as when progressives found Hubert Humphrey unacceptable in 1968, giving us Richard Nixon; and when progressives found Al Gore unacceptable in 2000, giving us George W. Bush.

For this nation to elect a far left progressive is never going to happen, and the way forward is incremental reform, as the right wing forces are not going away, and have great power and influence.

So there are those who would say Barack Obama was not progressive enough, but imagine if we had ended up with John McCain or Mitt Romney.

This blogger believes that Hillary Clinton will be committed to progressive reform when she is President, and that she will have an alliance with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, but a lot depends on electing a Democratic Senate and narrowing the Republican control of the House of Representatives.

Time To Confront Newt Gingrich And Rudy Giuliani On Media For Their Invoking Bill Clinton, When Their Own Behavior Is Equally Horrible!

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One of the most obnoxious developments of the Presidential campaign is Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, and Rudy Giuliani, former NYC Mayor, both with scandalous private lives, clear womanizers, extreme misogynists, speaking up to defend Donald Trump’s obscene statements and behavior regarding women.

All three have been married three times and have cheated on their wives while married, and most likely, are still cheating on their present third wives.

All three are the lowest of the low, breaking up families, harming their children no matter how much the children might deny it, while Bill Clinton, despite his totally reprehensible behavior, kept his family together, and remains, despite his terrible behavior, in love with his wife.

In many ways, the Bill and Hillary Clinton marriage reminds us of the Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt marriage, with its ups and downs, but real basic love for each other very obvious.

For Gingrich and Giuliani in 2012 and 2008, respectively, to have run for President with their disgraceful private life, as Trump has now, and yet to criticize Hillary Clinton, is the height of hypocrisy.

Kudos to Fox News Channel’s Megyn Kelly for NOT allowing Gingrich to bully her, but of course, Trump went ahead and applauded Gingrich for attacking her, and the effect is to make a mass movement of women abandoning the Republican Party this November, and possibly, for the long term, until and when the GOP no longer endorses misogyny and bad personal behavior in its candidates and its members in the Congress and in the states.

More media people need to openly confront Gingrich, Giuliani,and Trump directly about their behavior, and put them on the defensive. Kudos to Anderson Cooper of CNN for already doing so!

We cannot allow bullies to get away with their actions and behavior, and the American people would salute media personalities, like Cooper, who challenge openly the hypocrisy of these characters!

“Coattails” Vs. “Split Ticket”: Which Will Occur In November?

Ronald 1 Comment

Now with two weeks to the election, speculation is rising that Hillary Clinton may win a landslide victory over Donald Trump, and that she might have “coattails”, help to carry in a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and Senate.

The Senate part of this equation seems very likely, but to gain the House of Representatives majority will be very difficult, with the Republicans having a 30 seat majority right now, greater than at any point since 1928.

The last time a President coming into office had the effect of switching both houses of Congress was 1952, when Dwight D. Eisenhower brought in Republican majorities, which, however, were lost by 1954.

After that, the House of Representatives did not fall into Republican hands again for 40 years, until 1994!

The Senate, however, did fall into Republican hands with the victory of Ronald Reagan in 1980, only to be reversed in 1986.

So best bet is that the House majority will be knocked down a great amount, maybe 20 seats gain, but short of a majority for the Democrats.

On the other hand, the Senate seems likely to turn over, and Hillary Clinton could help to switch the states of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Illinois, Wisconsin, Arizona, as well as Indiana, and keeping Nevada, the only contested Democratic seat, meaning a eight state gain for the Democrats, from 46 seats to 54, and including the likely defeat of Marco Rubio and John McCain.

Missouri, a less likely state for Hillary Clinton, but within reach, could also see Jason Kander, the Democratic nominee, defeat Senator Roy Blunt, but not seen as such, unless Missouri reverts to being a bellwether state which it was for a century, but not so in 2012.

Iowa and Ohio seem more likely to keep Chuck Grassley and Rob Portman, even if Hillary Clinton wins their states.

So the idea of a “split ticket”, only 11 percent in recent election years, seems only likely in those two Midwestern states, and maybe in Missouri and Indiana, but Hillary likely to carry other states listed above and help to make the Senate Democratic majority.

Could The Lone Star State Really Go “Blue”? If So, The Republican Party Future Is Over!

Ronald 11 Comments

Latest polls indicate that the Lone Star State, Texas, with the second highest number of electoral votes, 38, could go for Hillary Clinton this year, tipping that state “Blue” four to eight years before it was expected to tilt, based on growth of Hispanic and Latino voting population.

Donald Trump is ahead only by three points, while Mitt Romney won Texas in 2012 by 16 points, so this is certainly a possibility that Hillary Clinton will win Texas this year.

IF she does, she will have a total electoral landslide, with over 400 electoral votes.

North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Utah, all “Red” states, are seen as likely to go to the Democrats, but Texas? Unbelievable!

If this happens, then it is possible that the House of Representatives majority will be in play, and the Senate looks much more likely to go to the Democrats, as we near Election Day in 20 days, but with many voters already having participated by mail or in early in person voting.

When and if Texas goes Democratic, the Republican Party is doomed for the long term, and will never win the White House again, until and unless they reorganize and change their attitudes and policies, including on immigration matters!

Trump Support Hemorraghing Rapidly In “Red” States!

Ronald 4 Comments

Three weeks to go until the Presidential Election of 2016, and it seems clear, by public opinion polls,that Donald Trump’s support in “Red” states is hemorrhaging rapidly.

His mishandling of the sexual assault allegations has turned many Republicans against him, and his condemnation of Republican leadership, including Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, is damaging his ability even to hold on to the loyal Republican states.

So we have evidence that the following states are possible pick ups by Hillary Clinton:

North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Utah
Indiana
Missouri
South Carolina
Texas
Alaska
Mississippi
Kansas
Nebraska (or at least the Omaha area)

One can be quite certain that many of these states will, in the end, still back Donald Trump, but by a much smaller margin than for Mitt Romney in 2012 or John McCain in 2008.

But the first four on the above list look ripe for being picked up by Hillary Clinton and the Democrats.

I will post an entry close to the election on my final projections, and I remind my readers that, independent of Nate Silver in 2012, I projected, as he did, the precise electoral vote distribution-332-206.

I also will publish my projection on History News Network, and will be on radio with Jon Grayson of CBS St Louis, KMOX 1120 AM, Overnight with Jon Grayson, one of the radio shows I have been on, and posted on the right side of the blog, on Election Night at 1 AM ET on November 9, a few hours after the polls have closed, to comment on the results.

Utah, The Mormon State, Could Vote Democratic For First Time Since 1964, When They Voted Against Barry Goldwater

Ronald 4 Comments

Utah, the Mormon state, has had an interesting history in their voting patterns on the Presidential elections.

Coming into the Union in 1896, Utah voted for Democrat William Jennings Bryan that year; for Woodrow Wilson in his second term bid in 1916; for Franklin D. Roosevelt four times in 1932, 1936, 1940, and 1944; for Harry Truman in 1948; and for Lyndon Johnson in 1964 (over Barry Goldwater).

So if Utah goes for Hillary Clinton, which now seems likely, it will be the first time in 52 years.

With Utah politicians, including Senator Mike Lee, Congressman Jason Chaffetz, and former Governor Jon Huntsman condemning Donald Trump, and with Mitt Romney, the most famous Mormon and 2012 Republican Presidential nominee, being vehemently anti Trump from the beginning of the 2016 Presidential race, it is seen as a blow to Trump having any chance to keep that state loyal to the Republican Party, which is natural in the past half century. Realize that Romney won 3-1 over Barack Obama four years ago!