Puerto Ricans

“The October Surprise” Is With Us! Final Projection On Electoral Vote Result On November 5!

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“The October Surprise”, the argument that an event in October has influenced Presidential elections, has occurred again, and this time, it seems clear that it will destroy the Donald Trump campaign!

Not only the horrendous, despicable “joke” by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe about Puerto Ricans at the Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday, but many of the other speakers who ranted and raved against African Americans and Jews, and promoted a white supremacy America with their hatred, all created what will bring down Donald Trump a week from today!

Clearly, the Republican Party is advocating a white Christian supremacist party and future, and Americans who do not fit into that mold can clearly see the threats and the danger ahead.

So watch as this disaster, that did not have to be, but demonstrates what Donald Trump is all about, will lead to his defeat, and likely by a bigger margin than one might think!

This blogger is now going out on a limb that Kamala Harris will carry the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada, and the second district of Nebraska, and will have 309 electoral votes to Trump’s 229 electoral votes. The only “swing state” Trump will win is Arizona!

And Harris will have a bigger popular vote margin than Joe Biden’s 7 million vote lead in 2020!

Commentary by readers is welcome on this projection, and we shall see how accurate I am!

Trump Madison Square Garden Rally Reminiscent Of Nazi Party Rally In NYC In 1939

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The Donald Trump Republican rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City last night was reminiscent in many ways of the infamous Nazi Party rally at the same venue in February 1939.

There were racist, antisemitic, misogynistic, white supremacist, and nativist utterances utlized by a host of speakers, and a specific and vicious attack on Puerto Ricans, who are Americans, but whose island was treated horribly by Donald Trump after the disasatrous Hurricane Maria in 2017.

One can hope that the large number of Puerto Ricans in New York, Florida, Illinois, and elsewhere will vote against Donald Trump, and that could affect election results in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and other “swing” states.

It was disgusting also to see some American Jews contributing to the disgraceful rhetoric at the rally, with them having no memory or concern about how Jews were treated at the 1939 rally, which took place before World War II, which led to the Nazi Holocaust!

The cast of characters assisting Trump at this despicable display of hatred included, among others:

JD Vance
Mike Johnson
Tulsi Gabbard
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr
Byron Donalds
Elise Stefanik
Elon Musk
Tucker Carlson
Howard Lutnick
Dr. Phil McGraw

And Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe who used vile racist language jokes, should be never hired to be a comedian anywhere, as he is a disgrace, and sees nothing wrong with his outrageous behavior, which, interestingly, led to a rebuke by the Trump campaign, which realized how it would harm support among Latinos!

Cuban Americans Are Distinctly Republican, But Competition For The Vote Of Other Latinos Is Strongly Democratic

Ronald 1 Comment

It is well known that the majority of Cuban Americans have been conservative and supporters of the Republican Party, since the first migration of Cubans to South Florida in 1959, and particularly after the failed Bay of Pigs fiasco under President John F. Kennedy in 1961.

And yet, younger Cubans are much more Democratic, as this scholar and professor discovered in his classes over the years.

Still, the effect of Fidel Castro and his brother Raul Castro permeate the strong anti Communism of Cuban Americans in Florida, New Jersey, New York and California, major centers of Cuban Americans. But Cubans are only about 4 percent of all Latino Americans.

Other Latino Americans still tend to be strongly Democratic, so it is expected Joe Biden will win the vast majority of Mexican Americans, Puerto Ricans, and other Latino groups from Latin America, with the one exception of Venezuelans.

Florida will be more complex because of the strength of the Cuban vote in South Florida, but the growing Puerto Rican presence, especially in central Florida in the last few years, makes it a real competition for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Elsewhere, the Mexican American vote, and population (which is two thirds of all Latinos in America), makes it likely that Arizona may turn “Blue” and that Texas will be much more competitive than ever in the past thirty years. And Georgia and North Carolina also will be tight races due to Latinos.

Already, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado are strongly Democratic.

So the battle for the Latino vote is very much to be noticed in this upcoming Presidential election, and in Senate and House races.

Reality: If Biden Wins Florida, He Only Needs To Win One More Trump State Of 2016!

Ronald 10 Comments

The odds of Donald Trump being able to pull out a win in November is very poor, particularly if Florida, third in electoral votes with 29, goes to Joe Biden.

The Democratic states of 2016 all seem solid for Joe Biden, although the Republicans are trying to win New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada and New Mexico, but the odds are very long against that occurring.

With Florida being won by Biden, all that the Democratic Presidential nominee needs to hit the 270 mark is win one of the following:

Pennsylvania 20 electoral votes

Michigan 16 electoral votes

Wisconsin 10 electoral votes

North Carolina 15 electoral votes

Arizona 11 electoral votes

Ohio 18 electoral votes

Georgia 16 electoral votes

Right now, in public opinion polls, Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all but the last two states, and one must remember that in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump only won by a combination of 78,000 votes combined in 2016!

Florida is prime territory for Democrats, with the growing Puerto Rican population, enhanced by the hurricane which hit that island in 2017, and by senior citizens notably turning against Donald Trump in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic. Since Trump did not win by very much in Florida in 2016, and with the enhanced Democratic campaign that will be mounted in Florida, the likelihood of Florida going Democratic, along with at least one of the above seven states is, seemingly, not all that difficult.

Also, Florida could end up trending “Blue” on Election Night, throwing the plot of Trump to declare victory that evening out of possibility.

It would be fitting and ironic that the state that Donald Trump has now made his official residence could put the nail in the coffin of Donald Trump staying on as President!

Florida The Key State In American Politics, With Extremely Close Elections, And Former Felons Able To Vote In Future

Ronald 1 Comment

The “Sunshine” State, Florida, where this author and blogger has resided for the past three decades, is notable for extremely close elections, but with Republicans in control of the state legislature, the Governorship, and the majority of Congressional seats and both Senate seats in 2019.

But with former felons now able to vote in the future, and the number of Puerto Rican migrants who have settled in the central part of the state, it is clear that Florida might in the next decade move toward a greater opportunity for the Democratic Party to start winning the state in the Presidential elections in the 2020s, and slowly start to have an opportunity to win state legislative control, and possible future state executive control in the long run.

Right now, the three most prominent statewide officials, all Republicans, are Governor Ron DeSantis, and Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott. It is conceivable that all three could be potential GOP Presidential contenders in 2024, with DeSantis and Rubio now only in their 40s.

But if the Democrats can somehow develop a “bench”, not easy to do, the opportunities for Democratic advancement are possible.

The biggest issue is that there is no one Florida, but multiple Floridas, as North Florida is Southern, Central Florida tends to be Midwest. and South Florida is Northeast. The key battleground is Central Florida, and Puerto Rican growth, along with former felons all over the state voting, could transform the state over time.

The Miracle Of Andrew Gillum, The Democratic Nominee For Governor In Florida

Ronald 7 Comments

Today has been a glorious day, one of the best this author has experienced in a long time.

What seemed impossible happened, as Andrew Gillum, the African American Mayor of Tallahassee, Florida (the state capitol), overcame the disadvantages of no money, no winning of any polls, no advertising to speak of. He triumphed over four other candidates, all with tons of money, and polls and advertising on a large scale.

So now we have three African American candidates for Governor, with Stacey Abrams in Georgia, and Ben Jealous in Maryland, along with Andrew Gillum.

Gillum was an unknown, and this author did not vote for him, assuming he had no chance to win, but now that he has won, this author is thrilled beyond belief, and ready to help Andrew Gillum win and bring a Democratic government on the executive level to the Sunshine State, the third largest behind California and Texas.

Andrew Gillum is educated, intelligent, a great orator, with great charisma and presence, a sense of humor, exudes confidence and has had executive experience, and displays a humility that is very appealing.

Gillum is someone to take seriously, as since independents could not vote in Florida for either party’s nomination, the potential for a “blue wave” is there, with not only independents, but also moderates in the Republican Party who are unhappy with the Donald Trump led Republican Party and its candidate, a nasty, mean spirited, arrogant three term Congressman, Ron DeSantis, who already the day after the primary, is using the word “monkey”, appealing to white supremacy and white racists.

Additionally, the fact that Gillum is only 39 will appeal to African Americans, young people, educated suburbanites, and the growing Puerto Rican population after Hurricane Irma, and with them being citizens of the US, and able to vote against Trump, who was shameful in his treatment of the hurricane disaster on that island. Now we are learning that 2,975 died in Puerto Rico, 60 percent higher than died in Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005.

To make the situation even more impressive, the Attorney General nominee for the Democrats is also an African American, Sean Shaw, and the candidate for State Agricultural Commissioner is Nikki Fried, who is Jewish. So we have a truly diverse ticket, and all this should help Senator Bill Nelson hold off Governor Rick Scott, who is spending three times what Nelson is able to raise, for his campaign.

But the belief is that Gillum, Shaw, and Fried could carry Nelson on their backs, and lead to an all Democratic victory in Florida in November.

Migration Of Puerto Ricans To US Mainland Will Transform Florida Politics Over Next Few Years In Favor Of Democratic Party

Ronald 2 Comments

It is predictable, that as a result of Hurricane Maria devastating Puerto Rico, we will see a massive migration of people from Puerto Rico to the mainland Unites States.

As citizens of the United States, all that it takes is a plane or ship trip to the mainland, and they are not immigrants.

The vast majority of migrating Puerto Ricans are likely to end up in Central Florida, around Orlando and Tampa, where recent settlement of Puerto Ricans has gone in the past few years.

Some will also also settle in South Florida as well, and additionally, many will go to New York City, where the original major population from decades ago from the island settled.

Some will end up in New Jersey, and in Philadelphia and Chicago, as major metropolitan areas.

The effect of this Puerto Rican population wave will have a dramatic effect on Florida politics, as long as these migrants choose to vote, after they have seen the lack of consideration or concern by President Donald Trump toward their island.

In general, Puerto Ricans, as other Hispanic groups, except Cubans, tend to vote Democratic historically.

So already, there are signs that Florida Governor Rick Scott, planning to challenge Senator Bill Nelson for his Senate seat next year, is showing signs of interest and concern about welcoming these migrants.

One can be sure that Scott is playing politics, as he still remains one of the absolutely worst Governors in America, and has shown little interest in any kind of assistance to the poor, minorities and making life better for Floridians, other than the wealthy.

But it is clear cut that we might see a major transformation in Florida politics, which could help swing the national election for President in future years in favor of the Democrats, as Florida had the third most electoral votes and will have more by the 2024 and 2028 elections.

Marco Rubio And John McCain In Trouble As Hillary Clinton Gains in Florida And Arizona

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Marco Rubio and John McCain are in trouble as Hillary Clinton gains in Florida and Arizona.

Rubio, who was humiliated by Donald Trump in the Florida GOP Presidential primary, only winning his home county of Miami-Dade, and had the worst attendance record in the Senate, and said he did not like being a Senator, now wants to come back.

But Patrick Murphy, the Democratic Congressman challenging him, is edging closer in polls, as Hillary Clinton seems very likely to win the state, with more Democratic registration, particularly with Puerto Ricans from the island migrating in large numbers in last couple of years to Orlando and other areas of Central Florida.

McCain, always seen as insufficiently conservative by many in Arizona, is witnessing a growing likelihood that Clinton could win Arizona, with increased numbers of Hispanic and Latino voters, and his race against Ann Kirkpatrick, Congresswoman from the First District, being very close in the polls. So after 30 years in the US Senate, and being the nominee of the party for President in 2008, McCain, at age 80, may face mandatory retirement in November!

Prediction That Four States Will Decide Presidential Election—Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida–Is That Legitimate?

Ronald 4 Comments

Many political observers are saying that four states are the true battleground that will decide who is inaugurated President on January 20, 2017.

Those states are Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida.

The question is whether that belief is legitimate.

This blogger thinks it is much more complicated than those four states, and that two of them–Pennsylvania and Florida—are assured for the Democrats as it is.

Yes, it is true that Pennsylvania west of Philadelphia and east of Pittsburgh is often called “Alabama”, but Pennsylvania has been reliably “Blue” or Democratic for six straight elections from 1992 onward, and that is not likely to change. If “Alabama” really mattered as much as some think, then how did our African American President win the state both in 2008 and 2012? If anything, with the economy far better now than it was in 2008 and 2012, and with Barack Obama’s public opinion rating now at 58 percent, the highest since his first year in office (2009), Pennsylvania is assured to go “Blue” again. Remember, all that is needed is to win the most popular votes to win the electoral votes, not necessary to win a majority, but just a plurality.

Florida, despite being Republican in state elections, went for Barack Obama twice, and now there are many more Puerto Rican citizens who have moved from the island to central Florida in particular, due to the tough economic times in Puerto Rico. Puerto Ricans are citizens who just need to re-register at their new address, and the vast majority of them are Democrats, and therefore now lessen the Cuban influence on the state vote. And many younger Cubans are not automatically conservative or Republican as their elders are. With the I-4 corridor (Central Florida) becoming more likely Democratic, add much of South Florida to the equation (Broward and Palm Beach Counties), and the influence of North Florida and Miami-Dade County (where many immigrants turned citizens from Brazil, the Dominican Republic, and other nations in Latin America have migrated and not generally Republicans) are therefore outweighed, and with the better public opinion ratings of Obama added to the mix, the odds are that Florida will go “Blue” again.

Ohio is more difficult, and history tells us that every elected Republican President has won Ohio, so this is truly the crucial state but with Hillary Clinton having the edge in most polls. And one must remember Hillary has a built in edge in “Blue” States, and does not have to win Ohio, while Donald Trump must win it or have no chance to win the White House.

North Carolina went for Obama in 2008 but went “Red” for Mitt Romney in 2012, but polls now indicate that Hillary is favored, but again is not essential for Hillary to win the Presidency.

I would say beyond these four states, there are the states of Georgia and Arizona and Utah, all “Red” states, that indicate close races, with the possibility that they could go “Blue” for this election, and possibly beyond, particularly true for Georgia and Arizona, due to the increase in Hispanic and Latino population and voters.

So Hillary Clinton still has an overwhelming advantage, with eight weeks out from Election Day, to win the Presidency.

Reality Of American Politics: Win Majority Of Hispanic And Latino Vote Or Lose Presidency In The Future!

Ronald Leave a comment

Statistics now show that any Presidential nominee from now on MUST win the majority of the Hispanic-Latino vote or lose the Presidency, which insures that Democrats will continue to win the Presidency until and when the Republican Party and its candidates stop attacking the issue of immigration, and accept that the white vote is simply not enough to win the White House. In 2016, it is estimated that to win the Presidency, Donald Trump would have to win 47 percent of the Hispanic-Latino vote, which means by 2020, it will be necessary to win the majority forever after.

George W. Bush won the Presidency with 35 and 40 percent of the vote, while John McCain won 31 percent and Mitt Romney won 27 percent and lost the Presidency.

The latest estimate is that Donald Trump is winning 19 percent of the vote, and that is before his vicious, nasty, hard line speech in Phoenix, which certainly lost him many more Hispanic and Latino votes.

The Hispanic and Latino vote, particularly the Mexicans and Puerto Ricans, are growing rapidly, and already in population, all Hispanics and Latinos are about one out of every six people in America.

And when you add in the Asian American vote and the African American vote, it is clear the Republican Party is doomed long term, as 73 percent of the former and 90 percent of the latter group voted Democratic for President in 2012, and that both numbers will probably go up for Hillary Clinton.

So allowing white nationalists and hate mongers like KKK former leader Davide Duke to be connected to Donald Trump only insures disastrous defeat for Donald Trump and any future GOP nominee who continued to promote nativism and racism.