Puerto Ricans

Massive Puerto Rican Migration To Florida Promotes Likelihood Democrats Will Win “The Sunshine State” In 2016 Presidential Election!

Ronald 2 Comments

Events in Puerto Rico are transforming the Presidential Election of 2016 before our eyes!

Puerto Rico, which is in the special status as a Commonwealth, and has flirted with the concept of possibly becoming the 51st state, is going through crisis times, with a massive debt, unable to pay it, and effectively going bankrupt.

As a result, we are witnessing a major migration of Puerto Ricans to the mainland of the United States, particularly to Florida, for economic opportunity.

Remember that Puerto Ricans are citizens of the United States, and are not to be seen as “immigrants”, legal or illegal. They can register as voters immediately, and it is clear that they will play a major role in the Florida vote for President, as well as state and national offices, including the United States Senate and the US House of Representatives.

The vast majority of Puerto Ricans in the United States have been Democrats, and nothing that the Republican Party has said and done about Hispanics is about to convince them to vote Republican! This means that the crucial “swing state” of Florida could be expected to fall into the hands of the Democratic Presidential nominee, whoever it is, just about guaranteeing an Electoral College majority!

It is now believed that very soon there will be more Puerto Ricans in Florida than Cubans, and already there are more than one million living in the state.

This is particularly true in Central Florida, the Orlando-Tampa area, an area that tends to decide state and national elections, and could, therefore, increase the number of Democratic members of the state legislature, the House of Representatives, and help elect a Democratic Senator to succeed Marco Rubio.

The Battle For America: The Past Vs. The Future, Old Vs. Young

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It is becoming very clear that the crisis in America regarding its future is centered around age, the past vs. the future, the Old Vs. Young.

The past is an America of the 1950s, when most women, except for the poor, stayed at home; when African Americans were segregated and treated in a very discriminatory manner; when Jews and Catholics and Puerto Ricans were considered the only minorities other than African Americans in a nation dominated by white Anglo Saxon Protestants; when very few Americans had attended and graduated a college or university; when the military draft existed; when Americans believed that nuclear war was an imminent possibility; when young people had not yet rebelled against a society in which suburbia was developing, as whites escaped cities for the “better life”; when the total number of sports teams in the four major sports numbered only 42; when Americans knew little about the dangers of tobacco, liquor, and illegal drugs on their health; and where very few families took vacations, because the concept of vacation for most Americans was going to the beach or a local park.

The future was one of almost all women working, and many making greater incomes than their husbands or male family members if they remain single; an African American populations no longer willing to face police abuse and mistreatment or other denials of equal treatment under the law; where Asian Americans, Hispanic Americans, and Middle East immigrants have created a very mixed population, both racial and religious; where a majority of Americans have attended college and a third have graduated college; where there is no military draft but constantly growing threats to national security from international and domestic terrorism; where young people accept diversity of all kinds willingly and openly, including that of gays and lesbians being part of society and having the opportunity to marry; where more people are abandoning the suburbs and moving back to the cities; where the number of sports teams in the four major sports numbers more than 120 in number; where health knowledge is greater than every before, but marijuana is becoming legal in different areas across the country; and where many Americans do extensive travel and tourism as routine parts of their lives; but where poverty, homelessness and deprivation still exist, and the aim seems to be to punish those who are poor!

When one examines the changes, one realizes that, to a great extent, this is a battle of the past vs. the future, the Old Vs. the Young, and the way society is advancing is the elimination of the old ideas by the reality of the aging process, and the demise of the elderly generations over time and their 1950s image, which is so out of date, and counterproductive in the second, and soon to be third, decade of the 21st century! So the opposition to change is rapidly being eliminated by the passage of time.

It is therefore ironic that it is two old billionaires in their 70s (Charles and David Koch), and an old billionaire in his 80s (Sheldon Adelson)–all three of whom will be dead likely in the next decade to 15 years—who are distorting and corrupting our government and politics and being pursued by Republican Presidential wannabes, when they are so old fashioned and out of tune with changing times, which will erase their influence by 2030!

And it seems clear that it is the Democratic Party which is looking into the future with a progressive vision, which insures their ultimate triumph long term over the Republican Party, which so represents the ideals of the 1950s, which are rapidly in decline, taking with them the “Old” America and being replaced by the “New” America!

The Coming Battle For The Hispanic Republican Leadership: Marco Rubio Of Florida Vs. Ted Cruz Of Texas

Ronald 2 Comments

Florida Senator Marco Rubio is gaining the spotlight next Tuesday evening, when he is commissioned by Speaker of the House John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to deliver the Republican Party response to the State of the Union Address of President Barack Obama.

Rubio is young, good looking, charming, charismatic, and represents the Sunshine State, which sometime late in this decade will surpass New York in population and become the third largest state. In addition, it is a “swing state”, arguably the most important if the Republicans are ever to recover from their last two defeats for President, and losing the popular vote in five of the past six elections. And Rubio is clearly planning to run for President. So his response to the State of the Union Address will be crucial to his campaign to build up his image.

But as he becomes seen as the “savior” of the Republican Party, as Time Magazine terms it, he will have another Hispanic Senator, like Rubio a Cuban American, as a rival, who comes from a state much larger in population and in land area, and that is newly minted Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, second in land area to Alaska and second in population to California, and four and a half times the land area of Florida.

Cruz, just 17 months older than Rubio, clearly has his own Presidential plans in the future, and he is much more willing to be openly aggressive in his rhetoric and behavior than Rubio, who tends to be more gentlemanly by nature. Cruz is like a bull in a China shop, and does not care what anyone thinks, because he is an open Tea Party activist, while Rubio is only loosely connected to that right wing movement.

Rubio is diplomatic compared to Cruz, who is less than tactful in just a short time in the Senate, going on the offensive, not being a quiet freshman in the Senate. Cruz was born in Canada, but claims he can run for President, an issue which would have to be investigated further for its validity, particularly when Barack Obama was born in Hawaii, but has had his native citizenship questioned because his father was Kenyan. Cruz is an “in your face” type, and his arrogance is likely to cause him to have fewer friends in the Senate than Rubio.

So Cruz cannot help but wish that Rubio “falls on his face”, as Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal did in delivering the response to the State of the Union Address in 2009.

The irony though is that both Rubio and Cruz represent only three percent of Hispanics, and their conservative ideology is highly unlikely to draw Mexican American support (almost two thirds of all Hispanics in America) or Puerto Rican support ( the second highest percentage among Hispanics with a little over 9 percent), something that they seem not to understand.

So it really does not matter what happens with Rubio and Cruz and their Presidential ambitions, as it is clear that the vast majority of Hispanics will continue to vote Democratic over the long haul. A sign of this is that even the Cuban American population, traditionally Republican because of Fidel Castro, is starting to move in the direction of the Democratic Party, at least among the younger generation which has no memory or experience in fleeing Communist Cuba under Castro control for the past 54 plus years!

The Coming Battle For The Hispanic Vote Of Two Ambitious Republican Senators—Marco Rubio And Ted Cruz

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One of the most interesting political battles over the next few years will be that between two Cuban American Republican Senators from major populated states, both of whom have Presidential ambitions, both of whom are young, both of whom are aggressive in trying to swing Hispanic voters toward the Republican Party and their own plans for national office.

These two Senators are Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, and neither will allow the other to gain any advantage unchallenged.

Rubio and Cruz are right wing conservatives, both of whom appeal to Tea Party activists, although Rubio tries to separate himself, to some extent, from some of that right wing group’s rhetoric at times.

Cruz has no such problem, and is, if anything, more “in your face” in his tactics than Rubio, even though he has been a Senator for exactly six days so far! His cockiness and arrogance were evident even before he was elected, and he will give no slack to anyone who does not share his extremist views on almost any issue!

We will witness constant one upsmanship by both Senators, who will be rivals for a long time, both being in their very early 40s, and both perceiving themselves in the White House in the future.

The question will be can they gain the support of fellow Hispanics and Latinos, when they, as Cubans, represent THREE percent of all Hispanics and Latinos, with a full 65 percent being Mexican Americans, and Puerto Ricans being the second largest percentage of Spanish speaking Americans. The likelihood of massive numbers of Mexican Americans and Puerto Ricans becoming loyal to the Republican Party because of Rubio or Cruz seems highly unlikely.

The Four “States” Of Florida

Ronald 1 Comment

Florida began early voting today, and it is the ultimate “swing state”, as it is really four “states”!

North Florida and the Panhandle is strongly conservative and Republican, except for Gainesville, the home of the flagship University of Florida.

Central Florida is the ultimate battleground of Tampa and Orlando, with growing Hispanic population, heavily Puerto Rican, but also Midwesterners who are Republicans, so it is hard to know what will happen here.

Palm Beach and Broward Counties in South Florida are fertile Democratic territory, and heavily Jewish and other Northeasterners.

Miami Dade County is heavily Cuban, likely Republican, but the younger generation may be straying from their parents and grandparents.

Voter turnout and enthusiasm will decide if Florida goes to Barack Obama or Mitt Romney in ten days!

Major Florida Factor Often Not Considered: The Puerto Rican, And Other Non Cuban Hispanic Vote

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As the battle for Florida’s electoral votes goes on, many observers are failing to realize the possible influence of the massively increased Puerto Rican population, particularly in the major area of significance, Central Florida.

Often, many people assume that the Hispanic vote is mostly Cuban, and that they, of course, traditionally vote Republican because of the failure of John F. Kennedy to eliminate Fidel Castro at the Bay of Pigs in 1961.

But in recent years, the Puerto Rican population in the state of Florida, and particularly, in Central Florida, has ballooned to nearly match or surpass the Cuban population found mostly in South Florida.

There are nearly a million Puerto Ricans in Florida, a state that is always rapidly changing, and becoming more non Cuban Hispanic by the month.

The Puerto Ricans of Florida, with smaller numbers in the past, supported the election and reelection of Governor Jeb Bush, but they went to Barack Obama for President in 2008, and are seen as likely, by large percentages, to vote for him again. The key, as always, will be voter turnout.

Additionally, there are a growing number of Hispanics from other nations in the Western Hemisphere, and the tendency of many would be to support Obama, although the very religious element, against abortion and gay marriage, might not, but the point being made here is that to assume, because of some polls at the moment, that Mitt Romney has Florida locked up, with its 29 electoral votes, is a massive mistake, as Florida will be in play, and may well decide who is the next President. And realize that younger Cuban Americans, in many cases, are abandoning the Republican beliefs of their parents and grandparents, and some will vote for Barack Obama!

And remember, with the biggest prize of the “swing” states, 29 electoral votes, Florida may select Barack Obama for a second term, and without the intervention of the Supreme Court for George W. Bush, as in the Presidential Election of 2000!

Florida In Many Ways The Major Battleground Of America In 2012

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The state of Florida is now the center of attention, with its Presidential primary coming up on Tuesday, and polls indicating that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has a double digit lead over former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, with Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and Texas Congressman Ron Paul lagging behind.

Romney, by going on the attack against Gingrich in the two Florida debates this past week, and spending about four times as much on campaign advertising as Gingrich, seems likely to win despite the decision of two popular Floridians, Senator Marco Rubio and former Governor Jeb Bush to avoid endorsing anyone.

Without an endorsement, it still seems as if both Rubio and Bush are secretly behind Romney, seeing Gingrich as divisive and likely to cause a disruption in party unity.

Both are potential Vice Presidential candidates for Romney, and both are also potential Presidential candidates in 2016 if the Republicans lose to Barack Obama in 2012.

And being the third largest state, with an increase of two electoral votes, and matching New York in electoral votes, Florida becomes the biggest battleground of all, since California and New York are seen as strongly Democratic and Texas as strongly Republican.

Florida, won by Obama in 2008, is definitely up for grabs with its 29 electoral votes, and it is really three or four states. There is the Panhandle of Florida, likely to go Republican for sure. There is Central Florida, including Tampa and Orlando and other areas, which is the real battleground. There is Broward and Palm Beach Counties, likely to support Obama. And then there is the Miami-Dade County influence of Cuban Americans, traditionally Republican.

Florida is the South (Alabama) in the North; the Midwest in the Central area; and Northeast and Cuba in the South. It is also affected by the Jewish vote in South Florida and the Puerto Rican vote in Central Florida. As one observer summed it up, Florida is the Jews, the Cubans, and the “rednecks”! Of course, this is an oversimplification of the state’s political clout, but it is clear that the Republican nominee and President Obama will spend a lot of time in the state, as it may very well decide who occupies the White House in 2013!

Florida: A Complex State Politically, And Hard To Predict Its Impact

Ronald 1 Comment

With the Florida Republican Primary just eight days away, and with many Republican voters having already engaged in early voting or absentee mail ballots, the question arises as to what one can expect to happen on January 31.

Mitt Romney has the most money and is seen as the moderate in the race, although he professes to be conservative.

Newt Gingrich, flush off his victory in South Carolina, would seem to have an edge, although Florida is not quite the same as South Carolina electorally, being much more unpredictable.

Florida is really multiple states in electoral behavior, as the Panhandle, particularly west of Tallahassee, the state capital, is very much like South Carolina or “southern Alabama”, strongly evangelical Christian and Tea Party oriented. But central Florida, including Tampa and Orlando, tends to be made up of people from the Midwest, while South Florida has large concentrations of Cubans, but also Northeasterners, including Jews in large numbers. And Puerto Ricans are found in Orlando in large numbers, and liberal strongholds exist in Tallahassee due to Florida State University’s presence, and in Gainesville, home of the University of Florida.

So if Florida comes across in the GOP Primary as too conservative, that can affect the balance among Hispanics, African Americans, and Jews, heavily concentrated in South Florida and portions of Central Florida, when it comes to the Presidential election in November.

Florida has a “split personality”, and being a megastate, more representative of the nation than Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina, it could turn out to be very unpredictable in its impact on the Republican Presidential battle, and in the fall campaign against Barack Obama.

A Major Positive For Barack Obama In 2012: The Hispanic-Latino Vote

Ronald 1 Comment

Many Hispanics and Latinos are unhappy with President Barack Obama, due to the deportation policies of the administration, seen as considerably tougher than under George W. Bush; and to the continuing economic difficulties faced by them, a higher unemployment rate than whites.

But yet, it seems clear from a survey of the Pew Hispanic Center that Hispanics and Latinos will back Obama by 2-1 over any Republican opponent.

The reason is the constant anti Hispanic and anti Latino statements of Republicans running for the Presidency, and the Republican membership of Congress.

Also, jobs, education and health care matter most to Hispanics and Latinos, and on all three, the GOP is seen as unfriendly and antagonistic to the values and concerns of those groups.

John McCain received 31 percent of the Hispanic and Latino vote in 2008. George W. Bush had done better, with about 40 percent. It seems clear that whoever the Republican nominee is, he is unlikely to get much more than 20 percent, if that.

And only Cuban Americans are likely to vote in the majority for the Republican nominee for President, while Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, and other Central and South American Hispanics will certainly back Obama overwhelmingly!