With the sudden, rapid decline in the economy, caused by the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the odds of Donald Trump winning reelection in November 2020 has dramatically declined!
Economic Downturns ALWAYS lead to defeat of Presidents running for reelection, as witness the following examples:
Martin Van Buren–Panic of 1837, loses in 1840.
James Buchanan–Panic of 1857–chose not to run for reelection, but Republican party opposition won in 1860 with Abraham Lincoln.
Ulysses S. Grant–Panic of 1873, Republican successor to Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, lost by massive margin of 250,000 votes in 1876 election, but won a disputed Electoral College vote over Democrat Samuel Tilden.
Benjamin Harrison–Panic of 1893 (evident in late 1892), loses in 1892.
Herbert Hoover–Great Depression (1929 and after), loses in 1932.
Jimmy Carter–Recession of 1980, loses in 1980.
George H W Bush–Recession of 1992, loses in 1992.
John McCain–Great Recession 2008-2009, successor Republican candidate for George W. Bush, loses in 2008.