Rutherford B. Hayes

Donald Trump’s Threat To Utilize The Insurrection Act Of 1792 To Establish A Military Dictatorship

Hard to believe, but a law passed under George Washington in 1792 to promote a stable American Republic could destroy the Republic under a demagogue such as Donald Trump 233 years later in 2025 if Trump is able to regain the Presidency a year from now!

The purpose of the law was to overcome internal rebellion, best exemplified by the Whiskey Rebellion in Pennsylvania in 1794, but also used by Abraham Lincoln during the Civil War; by Presidents Rutherford B. Hayes and Grover Cleveland in labor disputes; by Presidents Dwight D. Eisenhower and John F. Kennedy to promote Southern integration of schools during the Civil Rights Era ; and by President George H. W. Bush during the Los Angeles riots in 1992.

It is NOT designed to crack down on legal, constitutional right of dissent, including marches, demonstrations, and other displays of nonviolent action, but Trump has stated he would promote mass arrests and deportations upon taking the oath of office on January 20, 2025!

Something must be done to prevent such an outrageous movement toward Fascism, and the destruction of the Bill of Rights, and the first step would be to insure that Donald Trump never gets near the Oval Office again!

Presidential Concession Speeches An Endorsement Of American Democracy!

The story of American democracy over two centuries and more has been graceful concession speeches by the losers of Presidential elections. Despite vehement and emotional feelings on both sides of an election, being a “good sport” and conceding in a proper manner is an American tradition!

The only time there was, in effect, no concession speeches was when South Carolina, and eventually ten other Southern states, eventually refused to accept that Abraham Lincoln had won the Presidency in 1860, and began the civil insurrection known to history as the American Civil War!

Other than that one time, losers of Presidential elections have always been gracious and patriotic in their acceptance of the victory of their rivals, until 2020 when Donald Trump refused to concede and provoked the US Capitol Insurrection of January 6, 2021!

Some elections have been very close, as in 1876, when Rutherford B. Hayes defeated Samuel Tilden, in an election which dragged on to final determination until just before Inauguration Day in 1877, with Tilden accepting his loss.

The same situation occurred in 1884, when the Republican Party lost the Presidency for the first time in a generation to Democrat Grover Cleveland by very small margins, but James G. Blaine accepted defeat graciously.

In 1916, we had the second closest Electoral Vote margin after 1876, until later in the year 2000, with loser Charles Evans Hughes being gracious in defeat to President Woodrow Wilson.

The upset election victory of President Harry Truman over New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey in 1948 was accepted in a proper way by Dewey. And later, Truman had Dewey visit the White House!

Richard Nixon in 1960 had advisers suggest he challenge John F. Kennedy over the close Illinois vote, but Nixon, outgoing Vice President, refused to drag out the matter, and accepted defeat in a gracious manner.

President Gerald Ford was heartbroken in 1976, when he lost to Jimmy Carter, but was very gracious in concession, read by his wife Betty Ford, because the President had developed laryngitis. And the Fords and the Carters became fast friends in later years, a closer friendship than anyone since John Adams and Thomas Jefferson!

Michael Dukakis was way ahead of George H. W. Bush at one point of the 1988 Presidential campaign, but was very appropriate in his concession speech.

President George H.W. Bush was devastated by his loss to Bill Clinton in 1992, as was Bob Dole in 1996, but both were proper in their concessions.

Al Gore fought the good fight in 2000, contesting the result for 36 days, but then conceding, when the Supreme Court intervened, and as outgoing Vice President, rejected any further battle over the Electoral College vote count on January 6, 2001.

Senator John McCain was totally decent and proper in his gracious concession speech, congratulating the nation in 2008, on the election of the first African American President, Barack Obama.

Mitt Romney had the same decency when he lost to Obama in 2012, and Hillary Clinton conceded the morning after the 2016 election to Donald Trump, although totally stunned by the loss.

So there was no excuse, and still there is none today, for any candidate for the Presidency who loses the election to refuse to concede, and instead to cause chaos, disarray, and literal violence, as that provoked by Donald Trump against Joe Biden’s victory in 2020.

So the time has come for Donald Trump to pay the price for the bloodshed and violence he provoked, and to be convicted and sentenced to federal prison.

And his decision to continue to provoke violence and what he calls “retribution” should lead to his incarceration BEFORE trial, as an example to the American people what happens, when anyone, even a former President, chooses to promote undermining of American democracy and the rule of law!

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Gains Minnesota Support, Now At 205 Electoral Votes!

The movement to change the Presidential Election process from the Electoral College system that has allowed five Presidential elections to be won by the national popular vote loser, has made more progress in the past few days, with Minnesota becoming the 16th state plus the District of Columbia to agree to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact!

Five Presidential Elections have seen the “vote of the people” denied with the popular vote loser becoming President as follows:

1824 Andrew Jackson loses to John Quincy Adams despite 38,000 vote lead
1876 Samuel Tilden loses to Rutherford B. Hayes despite 252,000 vote lead
1888 Grover Cleveland loses to Benjamin Harrison despite 90,000 vote lead
2000 Al Gore loses to George W. Bush despite 540,000 vote lead
2016 Hillary Clinton loses to Donald Trump despite 2.86 million vote lead

The total number of electoral votes needed to win the Presidency is 270, with the 16 states and DC adding up to a total of 205 electoral votes.

The problem is in a divided America all of the states and DC that have agreed to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact are “blue” states.

In order of their adoption by the state legislatures and signing by the governors are the following states: (starting in April 2007 until May 2023)

Maryland
New Jersey
Illinois
Hawaii
Washington
Massachusetts
District of Columbia
Vermont
California
Rhode Island
New York
Connecticut
Colorado
Delaware
New Mexico
Oregon
Minnesota

Two states–Maine and Nevada–passed the compact, but in Maine, a followup required vote failed and in Nevada the Republican governor vetoed the legislation. But in the past two weeks, Nevada passed the legislation again, and it seems almost ready to add its six electoral votes to the total, making it, when it happens, 211 electoral votes.

Six other states saw one of the houses of the state legislature pass the bill–Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Michigan (15), North Carolina (16), Oklahoma (7), and Virginia (13). If these six states were to pass such a bill in the future, it would mean 68 more electoral votes, which with the present 205, would add up to 273, three more than needed, and if Nevada joined the list, it would be 279!

But even if more states were to join this compact, it is likely that there would be a constitutional challenge if, in a future Presidential election, this compact came into reality, and it could cause a major division in the nation.

Electoral Count Act Of 1887 Needs To Be Modernized To Avoid Another January 6!

The Electoral Count Act of 1887 needs to be updated and modernized, to avoid another January 6 situation.

Fortunately, a bipartisan group of Senators is at work on this project.

Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine, with the backing of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, is leading a group of Senators, including Democrats Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Chris Coons of Delaware to prevent a repeat of the nightmare created in 2021.

It would clarify the Vice President’s role so that there would never be doubt again about the counting of Electoral Votes.

The law of 1887 came ten years after the contested Presidential Election of 1876, where Republican Rutherford B. Hayes became President by a margin of one vote–185-184–over Democrat Samuel Tilden, who had won the popular vote by about 250,000!

Possibility That Neither Donald Trump Nor Joe Biden Will Be On Presidential Ballot In 2024

The possibility now exists that neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden will be on the Presidential ballot in 2024.

There are good reasons for this scenario.

Joe Biden would be 82 a few weeks after the Presidential Election of 2024, and Donald Trump would be past 78 and a half at the time of the inauguration, making both of them the oldest Presidential contenders in American history.

Donald Trump faces multiple lawsuits, and the strong potential for prosecution, both criminal and civil, which could harm any chance of him being the Republican nominee.

And there are many conservatives and Republicans who would want to be rid of the menace of Donald Trump.

Joe Biden’s age, and the hints of possible cognitive tests being bandied about by critics, makes it harder for him to consider a second term, along with all of the problems he is dealing with, which might undermine his future, particularly if the Democrats lose the House of Representatives, and even, potentially, the US Senate.

The feeling of a fresh start, and younger candidates is very appealing to many Americans.

If it turns out that neither Trump nor Biden, and even Vice Presidents Mike Pence and Kamala Harris, are passed by as alternatives, which could be a possibility, then we would have a scenario rarely seen in US history, of Presidential tickets that have neither the President nor Vice President having been nominated for either office.

The only elections since 1824 where no one nominated was ever on a Presidential ballot before being chosen are the following 12 elections out of a total of 50 elections:

1844 election of James K. Polk
1852 election of Franklin Pierce
1868 election of Ulysses S. Grant
1876 election of Rutherford B. Hayes
1880 election of James A. Garfield
1884 election of Grover Cleveland
1896 election of William McKinley
1920 election of Warren G. Harding
1928 election of Herbert Hoover
1952 election of Dwight D. Eisenhower
2008 election of Barack Obama
2016 election of Donald Trump

Donald Trump, The Republican Party, And Two “Big Lies”!

Donald Trump lost the national popular vote twice, by massive margins, much more than George W. Bush in 2000, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and John Quincy Adams in 1824.

Together, he lost by nearly 10 million votes–2.85 million in 2016, and 7.1 million in 2020.

The “Big Lie” is that Donald Trump won EITHER time, 2016 and 2020.

It is clear that the Russians and Vladimir Putin helped to fix the election in 2016 in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, giving Trump the victory by a combined total of about 78,000 votes.

In 2020, Trump lost much more massively, even in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, along with Georgia and Arizona, but his party is perpetuating a myth that helped to provoke the Capitol Insurrection of January 6, 2021, for which Donald Trump should be held accountable and be in prison!

Conservatism and the Republican Party are being destroyed, and the idea that nearly 70 percent of Republicans in polls believe the “Big Lie”, and refuse to acknowledge Joe Biden won the Presidency is beyond any sense of reality. This undermines American democracy, rule of law, and respect for the Constitution.

The Republican Party officeholders, with the exception of a small group, including Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, Adam Kinzinger, Lisa Murkowski, and a few others, has become a Fascist Party, a right wing Populist Party, a worshipper of Donald Trump, as if he is their Adolf Hitler or Benito Mussolini, unwilling or unable to accept the truth, and living in an alternate reality!

Acceptance Of Defeat In Presidential Elections A Norm, Except For Donald Trump!

The American political tradition is that the losers of elections accept defeat in Presidential elections, as well as other elections, and do not act like sore losers!

But we have a “sore loser” President who now says he does not know if he will accept defeat in November!

What does he propose to do? To encourage his supporters to promote violence and bloodshed? To refuse to leave office and barricade himself in the Oval Office?

If any move to promote violence and bloodshed develops as a result of Trump’s bad behavior, it is time to arrest him, even while still President, as a traitor! And were he to refuse to leave office on January 20, 2021, the Secret Service, the Capitol Police, and elements of the military would have to drag him out, maybe in handcuffs and chains, and maybe being ‘rough”, as he suggested to police officers one time on Long Island, New York in 2017!

There is no room for a loser who will not accept loss!

When we look at our history, Samuel Tilden was gracious in defeat in 1876 despite having won the popular vote to Rutherford B. Hayes.

The same happened when President Grover Cleveland lost reelection in 1888 to Benjamin Harrison, despite winning the popular vote.

The same happened when Richard Nixon lost to John F. Kennedy in 1960, in the midst of accusations of fraud in Illinois and Texas.

It also happened in 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote over George W. Bush, but lost the electoral vote due to Florida voting for Bush by the official count of 537 votes.

And Hillary Clinton also accepted defeat in 2016, despite a massive nearly 3 million popular vote lead over Donald Trump, but in a very close count, lost the Electoral College by small margins in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

What was acceptable for Samuel Tilden, Grover Cleveland, Richard Nixon, Al Gore, and Hillary Clinton MUST be good enough for Donald Trump!

From Election To Inauguration: Four Worrisome Times, And Now Again In 2020

In American history, we have witnessed four times when the period from the election to the inauguration has been a worrisome time.

The first time was 1860-1861, when Abraham Lincoln was facing the secession of the South, and likely civil war, and even the danger of assassination threats before he took office.

The second time was 1876-1877, when the popular vote went to Samuel J. Tilden, but the electoral vote went to Rutherford B. Hayes, decided by a special Electoral Commission, which resulted in the closest electoral vote imaginable, a one vote margin of electors.

The third time was 1932-1933, when Franklin D. Roosevelt faced a recalcitrant Herbert Hoover, who refused to cooperate with the President-Elect as the Great Depression worsened.

The fourth time was 2000-2001, when the electoral vote was decided by the Supreme Court, awarding Florida to George W. Bush over Al Gore, by the second closest electoral vote, only five electoral vote margin.

And now, in 2020, we have to fear that Donald Trump will refuse to concede the election, and will fight it in every possible way, if the electoral vote is contested. And even if it is an easy victory for Joe Biden, Trump might create a constitutional crisis, and attempt to declare martial law and suspend the Constitution. He also might attempt to start a war with China or Iran, in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic.

So we have a lot to worry about as we move toward the Presidential Election of 2020!

Economic Downturns And American Presidential Elections In History

With the sudden, rapid decline in the economy, caused by the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the odds of Donald Trump winning reelection in November 2020 has dramatically declined!

Economic Downturns ALWAYS lead to defeat of Presidents running for reelection, as witness the following examples:

Martin Van Buren–Panic of 1837, loses in 1840.

James Buchanan–Panic of 1857–chose not to run for reelection, but Republican party opposition won in 1860 with Abraham Lincoln.

Ulysses S. Grant–Panic of 1873, Republican successor to Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, lost by massive margin of 250,000 votes in 1876 election, but won a disputed Electoral College vote over Democrat Samuel Tilden.

Benjamin Harrison–Panic of 1893 (evident in late 1892), loses in 1892.

Herbert Hoover–Great Depression (1929 and after), loses in 1932.

Jimmy Carter–Recession of 1980, loses in 1980.

George H W Bush–Recession of 1992, loses in 1992.

John McCain–Great Recession 2008-2009, successor Republican candidate for George W. Bush, loses in 2008.

Is George H. W. Bush The “Best” One Term President In American History, Surpassing James K. Polk, And What About Jimmy Carter?

Now that George H. W. Bush is part of American history, the question arises whether he should be judged the “best” one term President in American history.

We have had the following 12 one term elected Presidents who finished their term, but were not given a second term:

John Adams
John Quincy Adams
Martin Van Buren
James K. Polk
Franklin Pierce
James Buchanan
Rutherford B. Hayes
Benjamin Harrison
William Howard Taft
Herbert Hoover
Jimmy Carter
George H. W. Bush

Eight of them, all but Polk, Pierce, Buchanan, and Hayes were defeated for reelection, with those four choosing not to run, and all of these four, except Polk, very unpopular and aware that they were not wanted to be nominated for another term.

The usual viewpoint has been that James K. Polk, with the acquisition of the American Southwest by war with Mexico, and acquisition of the Pacific Northwest by the Oregon treaty with Great Britain, was the most successful one term President. Labeled an expansionist and an imperialist by many, the fact that he presided over the greatest expansion of US territory since Thomas Jefferson, has helped him to be regarded by scholars as a “successful” President, rated 12 to 14 in scholarly polls.

Now, some are saying that George H. W. Bush may be greater than Polk, due to his foreign policy accomplishments in particular, including the end of the Cold War, the unification of Germany, and the Persian Gulf War, along with his domestic policies of “A Thousand Points Of Light”, and the Americans With Disabilities Act.

Some on this list, including Van Buren, Pierce, Buchanan, Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, Taft, and Hoover are seen in a poor light, while J. Q. Adams is seen as not having succeeded in his one term, although a great man, and his father, John Adams, criticized for the Alien and Sedition Acts in 1798, curbing civil liberties during his term.

The only other one term President who could be seen as competing would be Jimmy Carter, with his Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel, the Panama Canal Treaty, his Human Rights advocacy, his creation of new cabinet agencies (Departments of Education, Health And Human Services, Energy), and his exceptional record on the environment, but his negatives, including high inflation, the Iranian hostage crisis, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the Cuban Mariel Boat Lift all help to undermine his case.

So, one could argue that Polk and Bush may be competitive as the “best” one term elected President, without a clear cut answer to the question of who was the better President.

It might be best to say that Polk was the best 19th century one term elected President, while Bush was the best 20th century one term elected President, with Jimmy Carter as the runner up in that regard.