Seniors

Is “White Flight” Against Republicans And Donald Trump Occurring In 2020?

Ronald 1 Comment

Based on recent polls that seem unbelievable, the idea of “White Flight” from Republicans might be happening.

This would be due to the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the collapse of the economy, but also due to the shock and outrage of many people toward Donald Trump, and his behavior in the Presidency these past three and a half years!

His incompetence and lack of compassion and empathy is making many white voters reconsider the upcoming elections.

So the number of states experiencing polls that show Republicans running behind for the Congress, as well as the President, are multiplying.

Many suburban women, college educated whites, independents, moderate Republicans, and all age groups among whites, except for seniors, are moving toward the possibility of voting for Democrats in Congress, and also for former Vice President Joe Biden.

There is still, theoretically, time for many of these people to reconsider their move away from Trump and the Republican Party, but since events are not going to get better anytime soon, and actually are worsening daily, that is highly unlikely.

So the situation looks as follows:

As indicated in earlier blog posts, the 20 states and Washington DC, which voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, seem securely in Joe Biden’s camp.

Add to this the six states that determined the election for Donald Trump in the Electoral College, all having voted for Barack Obama in 2012–Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida. As of now, the latter four seem clearly in Biden’s camp, and would insure a Democratic victory for the White House.

But Ohio and Iowa also show leanings toward Biden, and other states, thought to be “Red”, also are showing evidence of the same leanings, including North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, but also Kansas, Montana, Indiana and Missouri, and the 2nd district of Nebraska. This would mean 443 electoral votes to 95, as this author and blogger predicted on April 30.

So 34 states could go to Biden, and the Republican US Senators or open seats running in Maine, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, two in Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, and Montana are all in danger as well.

South Carolina and Kentucky seem hard to overcome on the Presidential level, but both Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell seem in a real tight race for their seats, and could lose.

If all of these Senate seats went Democratic, the party could control 12 more seats than they have now, with 59 maximum, or if the one endangered Democrat, Doug Jones in Alabama, lost, it would be 58 seats. If there is a “Blue Wave”, however, one would think Jones would survive his Senate race!

The way things are going, one could even imagine some of the 16 “certain” states for Trump voting against him by small margins, but enough to give the state to Joe Biden.

This would include Alaska, South Carolina, and Kentucky with a total of 20 electoral votes, so if the maximum imaginable occurred, the final electoral vote would be 37 states and 463 electoral votes to 75 for Trump!

And this would mean that Joe Biden would win by a likely ten point or more margin in the total popular vote!

One more time, in mid to late October, this author and blogger will make a final projection on the likely Senate and Presidential results!

The Immoral, Cynical Sequester: Backing Off On Air Travel, But Not On Seniors, Children, The Sick, Unemployed!

Ronald 1 Comment

The $85 billion dollar sequester forced on the nation by the House Republicans has been a tragedy for the helpless, the vulnerable, but once it affects businessmen and air travelers, the Congress is quick to react, but only for that special interest group which tends to have a larger voice politically!

Yes, even this author travels, and will a number of times this summer, and was not thrilled about airline delays caused by furloughs forced on air traffic controllers.

But what about the indigent seniors who will not be fed by the Meals on Wheels program?

What about the children who are in Head Start, and will now have no summer program, and will force their mothers who have work to quit work that barely keeps the family out of poverty?

How about the sick in nursing homes who will not get government services, and will have medications and nursing care dramatically cut?

How about the unemployed, who will have a cut in coverage which allows them to keep a roof over their heads and food in their stomachs?

How about the victims, the people at the bottom of the social scale, who are told that life is to be protected, but only enough to be born, but not any guarantees beyond that?

And this is all so because corporations must get government welfare who should not get it, such as oil companies!

And this is so because those at the top of the economic pyramid cannot be expected to pay more, when they have had the massive tax cuts of the past decade!

And this is because the Republican Party is willing to cater to special interest groups that support their campaigns, including so called “religious” groups who are out to promote their agenda, despite the concept of separation of church and state!

Who gives a damn for the powerless, over the powerful? Certainly NOT the GOP!

And the sequester which they forced through is now being blamed on Barack Obama, rather than where it belongs–with John Boehner, Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell and the rest of their despicable excuse for a political party!