Steve Bullock

Final Projection On Congressional Elections Of 2020

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With only five days to go until the Congressional Elections of 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate his final projection on what is likely to happen.

The House of Representatives will witness a major Democratic gain, with the estimate being about 15 seats, to a total of approximately 250 Democrats and 185 Republicans, giving the Democrats a wide margin for the next elections in 2022.

Democrats will gain seats in California, Florida, Illinois, Texas, Virginia and Pennsylvania, reaching about five more than I estimated on May 2 in my earlier projection, and a large number will be female and minority.

The US Senate will see a Democratic takeover, and have 53-55 seats. The Democrats will lose Alabama, regrettably, although Doug Jones is an exceptional Senator, the best Alabama has had in a long time, but Alabama is simply unwilling to appreciate a man as decent and accomplished as Doug Jones. If he does indeed lose his seat, however, Jones should be part of the Biden team, maybe as a cabinet member.

The Republicans will lose seven to nine seats, with assuredly the following seven gains and possibly two more:

Arizona, Mark Kelly over Martha McSally

Colorado, John Hickenlooper over Cory Gardner

Maine, Sara Gideon over Susan Collins

Georgia, Jon Ossoff over David Perdue

Montana, Steve Bullock over Steve Daines

North Carolina, Cal Cunningham over Thom Tillis

Iowa, Theresa Greenfield over Joni Ernst

Kansas, Barbara Bollier over Roger Marshall

South Carolina, Jaime Harrison over Lindsey Graham

Georgia’s other seat, presently held by Kelly Loeffler is more difficult to determine, and will not be settled until January.

Sadly, this author and blogger doubts the defeat of John Cornyn in Texas or Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but sees the first seven listed above sure to go Blue, and Kansas and South Carolina possible, so therefore, with the loss of Alabama, but the gain of seven Republican seats, at least 53 Democrats, and the possibility of up to two more, for a grand total of 55 maximum!

Poll Numbers Of Responsible State Governors Of Both Parties Shows Most Americans Are Willing To Sacrifice

Ronald 1 Comment

It is encouraging that the poll numbers of responsible state governors of both political parties are very high, while the poll numbers of reckless, irresponsible, crazy President Donald Trump are rapidly slipping.

Four Republican Governors are acting properly, including

Mike DeWine of Ohio

Larry Hogan of Maryland

Charlie Baker of Massachusetts

Phil Scott of Vermont

Many more Democratic Governors are also being responsible, including 14, among others

Andrew Cuomo of New York

Gavin Newsom of California

Jay Inslee of Washington

Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan

Jared Polis of Colorado

Ned Lamont of Connecticut

J. B. Pritzker of Illinois

Laura Kelly of Kansas

Tim Walz of Minnesota

Steve Bullock of Montana

Phil Murphy of New Jersey

Roy Cooper of North Carolina

Tom Wolf of Pennsylvania

Ralph Northam of Virginia

It is good to see that the vast majority of Americans are showing willingness to sacrifice for the safety and health of others, rather than just thinking about their own pleasures and desires.

Adults are supposed to think beyond their own whims and desires, as they are not children, who have to be taught responsibility.

Think of the massive sacrifices of Americans in World War II, and realize in 2020, there is a percentage of Americans who have no desire to sacrifice, showing how immature they are, and having no social concern, a real disgrace!

Heroic State Governors, Democrats And Republicans, And Then The Southern Republican Governors Preaching Prayer As A Solution!

Ronald 10 Comments

There are heroes out there among both Democratic and Republican Governors, who have taken the lead in their states to protect their populations.

They have shown the kind of leadership that our President is incapable of.

They include:

Republican Governors

Mike DeWine of Ohio

Larry Hogan of Maryland

Charlie Baker of Massachusetts

and Democratic Governors

Andrew Cuomo of New York

Phil Murphy of New Jersey

Gavin Newsom of California

Tony Evers of Wisconsin

Tim Walz of Minnesota

Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan

J. B. Pritzker of Illinois

Laura Kelly of Kansas

Andy Beshear of Kentucky

Ralph Northam of Virginia

John Bel Edwards of Louisiana

Jared Polis of Colorado

Steve Bullock of Montana

Kate Brown of Oregon

Jay Inslee of Washington

There are others, but these are the most notable and outspoken in defending their citizenry.

At the same time, we have Governors elsewhere, particularly in Republican governed Southern States who refuse, in some cases vehemently, to take any direct action, believing God will solve the issue, while ignoring health and science experts.

This includes Mississippi (Tate Reeves) , Alabama (Kay Ivey) , South Carolina (Henry McMaster) , Texas (Greg Abbot), Georgia (Brian Kemp) and Florida Ron DeSantis), among others.

They will be held accountable for mass loss of life, as much as Donald Trump will be for his delayed response, and unwillingness to accept science, at least until this past weekend, when so much damage has already occurred!

Donald Trump Impeachment Trial Could Affect Democratic Presidential Contest,With So Many Senators Unable To Campaign During Trial

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The upcoming Donald Trump impeachment trial is likely to have an effect on the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Since it is likely to be held in January, a month before the Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary, South Carolina Primary, and Nevada Caucuses, the six Senators (Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Michael Bennet) who are candidates for President will be unable to campaign, on days of the trial.

They are required to sit in their Senate seats and listen to the testimony, without speaking, and cannot choose to do otherwise, as it would be against protocol.

If it stretches through the whole month of February, they will not be able to campaign in the 14 states scheduled to vote on Super Tuesday, including California, Texas, Virginia, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Tennessee, among others.

That should help such candidates as Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Steve Bullock, Tulsi Gabbard, Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg, and Deval Patrick.

Whether the impeachment trial will ultimately change the dynamics long term of the race will be interesting to see if it evolves.

Deval Patrick Joins The Presidential Race Belatedly

Ronald 26 Comments

Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick entered the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination this week, further muddying up the waters at a time when we need fewer candidates.

Patrick is impressive in many ways, but being connected to Bain Capital, the company started by Mitt Romney, is not a plus, and it seems to this blogger that he has little chance to be a major factor in the race, in that sense joining former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has decided not to compete in the February 2020 contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

The concern is that by having ever more contenders, the Democrats will shoot themselves, and help Donald Trump to win the Presidency, even after he is impeached by the House of Representatives, but failing to be convicted in the US Senate.

The fact that there are still ten contenders in the MSNBC debate this coming Wednesday in Atlanta, cosponsored by the Washington Post, is not good, as clearly some of them have zero chance to be the nominee.

At the same time, other contenders, including Julian Castro and Steve Bullock, are probably now no longer to be seen as serious contenders.

But one cannot see Tom Steyer or Tulsi Gabbard as serious contenders, and they are in the upcoming debate.

Hopefully, the number of contenders will soon decline rapidly after this fourth debate.

The Democratic Presidential Race Thins As Tim Ryan And Beto O’Rourke Withdraw From Race

Ronald 5 Comments

The Democratic Presidential race is thinning as Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan and former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke have withdrawn from the competition in the past week.

Both were considered moderates, and some thought O’Rourke had a real chance to move ahead, but both candidacies floundered without much public support in polls and in fund raising.

Both Ryan and O’Rourke were the rare white men running for the nomination, with the only serious such candidates left being Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg.

There is also Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, and Tom Steyer, but the most competitive white men are Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg.

The odds of a woman or a minority person being the nominee seems more possible, which is fine, but if that happens, it will mean the Democratic Party has not nominated a white man for President since 2004.

Time For John Hickenlooper, Steve Bullock, And Beto O’Rourke To Give Up Presidential Candidacies, And Run To Help Create Democratic Senate Majority In 117th Congress!

Ronald 5 Comments

It is time for three Presidential contenders to give up their candidacies and run instead for the US Senate in their states, and help create a Democratic Senate majority for the 117th Congress of 2021-2022.

Former Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado; Montana Governor Steve Bullock; and former Texas Congressman from El Paso, Beto O’Rourke, have no real opportunity to continue further, although O’Rourke has qualified for the third Democratic debate in Houston in September. Despite that, and his courageous and outstanding reaction to the El Paso Massacre, it is clear that he is NOT going to progress any further to the top tier of candidates.

Bullock is fascinating, and did well in the second Presidential debate, but he came in too late, and has no traction, despite his being quite impressive.

And Hickenlooper, well, he is a massive dud, and apparently is leaving the race later today.

All three would be wonderful Senators, and the Democrats need a minimum gain of four seats, or three, if the Vice President in the next term is a Democrat, and can organize the Senate majority.

If the Democrats win the Presidency, but fail to win the Senate majority, then nothing will be accomplished, as Mitch McConnell or his successor as Senate Majority Leader, will bottleneck any agenda of any Democrat, whether it be Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, or Pete Buttigieg, the most likely choices at this point to be serious contenders for the Democratic nomination for President.

Joe Biden Survives Onslaught In Second Night Of Second Debate, But Kamala Harris Remains Major Competitor, And Cory Booker Impresses

Ronald 20 Comments

The second night of the second Democratic Presidential debate in Detroit, Michigan, saw former Vice President Joe Biden survive an onslaught from Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Bill de Blasio.

At the same time, Harris remained a major competitor, although attacked by Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard on her handling of criminal justice as California Attorney General.

Cory Booker gained a great deal from this debate as well, and Julian Castro and Jay Inslee both improved their status.

Overall, this debate was far better than Tuesday night’s debate, and it is certain that the 20 debaters will decline by up to half the total for the Houston debate on ABC on September 12 and 13.

Some of these 20 contenders, even if they did well, will be unable to gain 130,000 unique contributors and 2 percent in at least 4 polls, the requirements for the third set of debates.

Right now, the following are definite:

Joe Biden

Kamala Harris

Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren

Pete Buttigieg

The following have a good opportunity to move forward as well:

Cory Booker

Julian Castro

Amy Klobuchar

Jay Inslee

Beto O’Rourke

Steve Bullock

So a total of 11 candidates are likely in September in Houston, and since there will likely be only 11, they may all be on one evening.

Winners Of First Night’s Second Democratic Debate

Ronald 30 Comments

Last night’s first night of the second Democratic debate has clear cut winners, and they are so called “moderates”:

Pete Buttigieg

Steve Bullock

Amy Klobuchar

All three did extremely well, and meanwhile, Bernie Sanders was shouting, and Elizabeth Warren was shaking, not good impressions to witness.

This author thinks all three will still be part of the equation going forward.

But tonight’s second debate will reshape the race, and decide who will be able to move forward, along with these three.

Clearly, Sanders and Warren are not going anywhere, but the number of moderate competitors will be growing in numbers.

Can Montana Governor Steve Bullock Move Ahead In Polls After Second Democratic Debate, And His First?

Ronald 4 Comments

Montana Governor Steve Bullock, a late announcer for President, who was not able to be in the first Democratic Presidential debate in June, will be on the stage next week at the second Democratic Presidential debate in Detroit, thanks for California Congressman Eric Swalwell having withdrawn from the Presidential race.

Bullock represents the Rocky Mountain West, from the fourth largest state in land area, but 8th least in population, and third least densely populated, and often called “Big Sky Country”. Glacier National Park and Yellowstone National Park are found in its territory, and it has become a leading tourist attraction state.

It is a state of agriculture, ranching, oil, gas, coal, hard rock mining, and lumber.

Bullock has been Governor since 2013, and was the only incumbent Democratic Governor to win in 2016, when Donald Trump won the White House. He is seen as successful in gaining goals he has set as Governor, despite a majority Republican legislature. He has chaired the National Governors Association since 2018.

Bullock is perceived as a moderate Democrat who has supported traditional Democratic beliefs, but has said that the Democrats need to look beyond urban areas, and appeal to rural and suburban voters, which makes a lot of sense.

He would be 54 at inauguration, just about the average of all Presidents (which is 55), and a rare youngish white male contender in a field of four old white men (Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper).

Whether he can make a dent at the second Democratic Presidential debate and be noticed will be one of the major elements to watch this coming week.