Super Tuesday Primaries

First Impressions Of Iowa Caucuses: Pete And Bernie Lead Factions, Joe And Amy In Trouble, Elizabeth Number Three Hanging On

Ronald 17 Comments

Although the Iowa Caucuses results are still not complete at this writing, the following conclusions are clear:

The big winners are Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders, and they now become the leaders of the two factions in the Democratic Party.

Joe Biden in 4th place and Amy Klobuchar in 5th place are on notice if they cannot do better soon, with Super Tuesday clearly their last stand if they do not perform much better.

Elizabeth Warren may have been 3rd, but failed to win any of the 99 counties, so she seems to be at a difficult time with New Hampshire coming up, and Sanders expected to win.

So it looks like the likely battle, subject to change, is between the oldest candidate and the youngest candidate in the field, with Pete precisely half the age of Bernie.

One is a non devout person of Jewish heritage who calls himself a Socialist, and the other is a devout Episcopalian who attends church regularly, and is gay and has a husband.

Buttigieg won the John F. Kennedy Profiles in Courage award as a high school senior in 2000, having written an essay on the integrity and political courage of then Congressman Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and met Caroline Kennedy at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library.

This is certainly an ironic situation, that the two front runners are linked in this manner. And the fact that one of my contributors to commentary on this blog, D, supports Sanders while I support Pete is also of interest.

So the battle is on, and we shall see what happens!

Time For A New Generation Of Leadership: My Endorsement Of Pete Buttigieg For President!

Ronald 7 Comments

With the Iowa Caucuses taking place on Monday evening, followed by the New Hampshire Primary, the Nevada Caucuses, and the South Carolina Primary later in February, and then Super Tuesday on March 3 (14 states voting), it is time to consider who would be the best choice for President of the United States.

Anyone who has read my blog for the past eleven and a half years knows of my genuine affection for former Vice President Joe Biden.

I wish he had been the nominee in 2016, and believe he would have defeated Donald Trump.

But at age 77 now, and concerned about the idea of an octogenarian Presidency if Joe, or Bernie Sanders, or Mike Bloomberg wins the election, I do not think any of these three would be the best choice for the future of the party and nation.

I wish to make it clear that I will support whoever the Democratic Presidential nominee is in 2020, but prefer a younger candidate who represents the future.

So therefore, I am endorsing former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg for President!

I believe that Pete, while seen as a “dark horse”, represents the future of the party, and would move the nation forward in a rational, reasonable way.

He would be the John F. Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama of his time, as the thought of a Catholic, a Southerner, a Governor of a small state, and a mixed race African American President was unlikely, but occurred in 1960, 1976, 1992, and 2008.

Pete was the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, a small city, but there is no description of who a President should be, and what matters more is the inspiration that a candidate brings to the race.

And Pete represents a new generation; a man who would be the youngest President in history; a man who served in the military in Afghanistan; a Harvard and Oxford graduate; a recipient of the Rhodes Scholarship; and a scholarly man who can speak seven languages.

Pete is a moderate progressive, which is the mainstream of the Democratic Party, and this blogger and scholar does not believe that Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren can win the election. And were either to win, the strong odds are against their agenda as more ambitious than the next Congress would be.

To accomplish their goals would require a Congress similar to that under Franklin D. Roosevelt in the mid 1930s, or Lyndon B. Johnson in the mid 1960s, but that occurring is close to zero, in reality!

The fact that Pete Buttigieg is gay and has a husband would not, in my estimation, be a major factor in the election, except for extremist religious Christians and Jews, but realistically, they would be unlikely to vote Democratic anyway.

And as far as African American voters, while they might favor Joe Biden now, and there are some issues with Pete’s handling of racial issues in South Bend, can one really imagine African Americans backing Donald Trump for a second term?

The prospect of a woman nominee, either Amy Klobuchar or Elizabeth Warren, would be appealing, particularly after the disappointment in 2016, and the fact that the centennial of the Woman Suffrage 19th Amendment, is in 2020. But I think the odds of midwestern white men supporting a woman over a gay male is highly questionable.

A great idea, however, would be to select a qualified woman for Vice President, with Amy Klobuchar the front runner in that regard, older by a generation than Pete, but Obama had Joe Biden who was a generation older as well.

Having a Midwestern ticket of Pete and Amy would insure, in my estimation, a Democratic victory in November, with two firsts–a gay male President and a woman Vice President–two advancements brought to us by the Democratic Party, the party of reasonable revolutionary change as in the case of John F. Kennedy and Barack Obama, half a century apart, and now looking into the future of the nation.

So again, I am in for whoever the Democrats nominate for President as the best choice for the nation, but enthusiastically endorse Pete Buttigieg for President, and welcome all commentary by any reader!

Iowa Presidential Debate Crucial As Caucuses Are Three Weeks From Today

Ronald 3 Comments

The Democratic Presidential debate on Tuesday night is crucial as the caucuses near us three weeks from today.

The latest polls indicate close to a four way split, with only five points between first place finisher Bernie Sanders and fourth place finisher Joe Biden.

It is clear anything could happen on February 3, and it could dramatically influence New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada later in February.

We must remember that Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008 went on to the Presidency after winning iowa in those years.

A win in Iowa could lead to victories in New Hampshire and onward, and that, if occurring, could have a dramatic effect on Super Tuesday, when 14 states, including California and Texas, the two largest, vote in primaries and caucuses on March 3.

A failure to end up at least in third place in Iowa would likely be the death knell of a candidacy.

And yet, even Amy Klobuchar, who is not seen seriously right now, but being from neighboring state Minnesota, could surprise us, having visited all 99 counties in Iowa.

So Tuesday’s debate will be a test of how she can perform, along with how Joe Biden will fare, and also whether Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, numbers one and two, treat each other. Additionally, whether Pete Buttigieg, now third in most polls, can compete against his older and more experienced rivals.

How the debate is judged by media will certainly have a dramatic effect on the likely voting lineup on February 3.

But an additional potential influence on what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire is the upcoming Impeachment Trial of Donald Trump, which will force Sanders, Warren and Klobuchar off the campaign trail, possibly giving an edge to Biden and Buttigieg.

Michael Bloomberg Makes It Official, But Does He Have Any Chance To Be The Democratic Nominee? NO!

Ronald 5 Comments

Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg made it official finally, that he is running for President.

Worth $53 billion, the 8th wealthiest person in America, Bloomberg has begun a campaign where he expects to spend $37 million on ads immediately in the next few weeks, more than all of the other Democratic contenders combined.

Bloomberg is passing the Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary, Nevada Caucuses, and South Carolina Primary, and putting all of his emphasis on Super Tuesday, March 3, when fourteen states have caucuses and primaries, including the major states of California, Texas, Tennessee, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Virginia as the major states on that day.

Bloomberg will not be participating in any Democratic debates, or so it seems, as he does not register in the polls, and is unlikely to gain enough public support to qualify.

He is betting on his fame and public persona to take him to the Presidency, a highly arrogant and egotistical way of seeking the White House.

While he can be proud of some aspects of his 12 years of government experience governing the largest city in the nation, often called the second most difficult job in America, some of his policies were highly controversial.

Additionally, the fact that he is Jewish will make him a target of white supremacists, and the fact of his magnificent wealth turns most people off, as they do not wish to replace one supposed billionaire with a more qualified, but even much wealthier billionaire.

If somehow Bloomberg goes all the way to the Democratic nomination for President, he probably would have a better than even chance to be elected, but being nominated seems a very long shot, not worth betting one’s income or fortune!

The Third Of The Month A Crucial Day–February 3, March 3, November 3, 2020

Ronald 11 Comments

It is now 14 months until the Presidential Election of 2020–November 3.

It is also 5 months to the first voting on the Presidential nominee candidates of the Democratic Party, when the Iowa Caucuses take place–February 3.

It is also 6 months until Super Tuesday, where California and Texas, the two largest states in population, vote, along with 12 other states in the Primaries including Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Virginia.

We are now in the midst of the most crucial period of the upcoming Presidential elections, when the fate of the nation will be decided by which Democratic nominee will challenge Donald Trump, and work to prevent the complete destruction of the American Republic established 243 years ago by the Founding Fathers.

More Presidential Contenders In 2020 Than In 2016: All Time High

Ronald 9 Comments

America is about to witness the largest number of Presidential contenders in its history, as up to 26 Democrats are getting ready to compete in the first two Town Hall debates—on June 26 and 27 in Miami and July 30 and 31 in Detroit.

This includes Senators, Governors, Congressmen and women, Mayors, and businessmen and women, including seven Senators, four Governors, six Congressmen and women, four Mayors, a former Vice President, three businessmen and women, and a former state representative. Some of these are former governors, members of the House of Representatives, and former Mayors.

The Republican Party had set the all time record of 17 contenders in 2016, and it led, sadly, to Donald Trump winning their nomination and the White House.

This number of 26 is pure insanity, and needs to be cut down dramatically, and assuredly, public opinion polls, financial support, and staff growth will quickly eliminate many once the first two debate dates are done, as comparisons on issues and personality, and the likelihood of mistakes and blunders will narrow the field.

Expect that at most ten contenders might survive to the point of the Iowa Caucuses, the New Hampshire Primary, the Nevada Caucuses, and the South Carolina Primary, all taking place in February 2020, before the massive Super Tuesday on March 3, when 12 states, including California, Texas, Massachusetts and Virginia have their primaries.

If one had to guess now who will be the final ten, they would be in the estimate of this blogger the following alphabetically: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.

If that is the final ten, it would include the former Vice President, six Senators, two Mayors, and one Congressman. It would also include four women, one Latino, one mixed race, one African American, four white Anglo men, three white Anglo women, and one gay male and one Jewish male.

Early Caucuses And Primaries Favor Different Democratic Presidential Nominees

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A year from now, the early Presidential caucuses and primaries create a situation where different candidates may have an edge, and are likely to create more complications in deciding who will gain and who will lose favor.

The Iowa Caucuses might favor Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar or Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown.

The New Hampshire Primary might favor Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders or Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.

The Nevada Caucuses might favor California Senator Kamala Harris or Colorado Senator Michael Bennet.

The South Carolina Primary might favor either New Jersey Senator Cory Booker or California Senator Kamala Harris, with its heavily African American Democratic membership in that Southern state.

On Super Tuesday, March 3, Harris might be favored in her home state of California; and former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro or former El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke might have the edge in Texas.

As the month of March wears on, with a number of Midwestern primaries in Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, Klobuchar and Brown would seem to have the edge, assuming no one has become the obvious Presidential choice after Super Tuesday, as at least seven other primaries are conducted that day.

Of course, based on past elections, it could be that the nominee would be decided simply by the large number of states conducting their primaries on March 3 (at least 9 states, including the giant ones of California and Texas).