“Swing States”

“No Labels” Independent Group A Disaster In The Making!

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The “No Labels” Independent group is an organization forming to provide a potential third party choice for the Presidency in 2024, due to many in the group and nationally having strong feelings that the nation deserves a choice beyond Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

This group, which has both Democrats and Republicans who are flirting with the effort, include many who most Americans have no awareness of, but also some major names:

Joe Lieberman, former Democratic and Independent Senator from Connecticut
Joe Manchin, Democratic Senator from West Virginia
Pat McCrory, former Republican Governor of North Carolina
Larry Hogan, former Republican Governor of Maryland

In a theoretical scenario, this group thinks the potential of the following Electoral College result is possible:

Republican states Texas (40), Nebraska (5), and Florida (30)–75
Democratic states Virginia (13), Illinois (19), Washington (12)–44
“Swing” states Arizona (11), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19)–45

A total of 164 electoral votes, denying either the Republican or Democratic candidate enough electoral votes to win the Presidency!

and 37 percent of the popular vote, causing the House of Representatives, one vote per state, to choose the Presidential winner, and with 26 states at the moment having a Republican majority in the House delegation!

The theory is that six out of ten moderate-independent voters are open to supporting a third party ticket at this point!

But the likelihood is such an effort would lead to Donald Trump winning over Joe Biden, a horrendous development!

This would be extremely destructive, and there is no possible way for an independent candidate to win the Presidency, as the closest we have ever reached that was Theodore Roosevelt, Progressive (Bull Moose) candidacy in 1912, winning six states, 27.5 percent of the popular vote, and six states with a total of 88 electoral votes.

But TR’s candidacy helped Democrat Woodrow Wilson to win, over Republican incumbent William Howard Taft!

Discussion Of Martial Law In White House Alarming, With One Month To Go Until Inauguration

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Today, one month before the inauguration, 31 days until Joe Biden and Kamala Harris begin the new administration, there is alarming news that corrupt, renegade lawyers around Donald Trump had a stormy meeting with Donald Trump, promoting the declaration of martial law, suspension of the Constitution under the ill advised Insurrection Act of 1807, and the redo of the election in states that were “swing’ states lost by Trump in November.

The New York Times reports that Patrick Cipollone, one of the President’s White House lawyers, and Mark Meadows, the White House Chief of Staff, argued vigorously against such action, while a renegade lawyer, Sidney Powell, was promoting such alarming ideas, along with wanting to be a special counsel to investigate the election returns, after the Electoral College has already made the election results official on December 14.

The possibility of a coup still exists, but it seems clear that were Trump to move in that direction, that the military and the bureaucracy would not cooperate.

At this point, with a crazed President out of control, and promoting anti democratic actions, at least in his diseased head, that immediate action to force his resignation, and for Vice President Mike Pence to finish out the term, is essential.

And those who argued for such action, including Powell and retired General Mike Flynn, who was convicted and then pardoned, should be incarcerated as traitors and seditionists.

And it is good to see Cipillone, who represented Trump in the impeachment trial and has been the White House Counsel, and Mark Meadows, former Congressman and Tea Party favorite, are putting patriotism and the rule of law ahead of Trump’s maniacal behavior!

A Glorious Day For Democracy, The Rule Of Law, And The Supreme Court Saying “NO” To A President!

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Friday, December 11, 2020, will go down in history as a glorious day for Democracy, the Rule of Law, and reaffirming the Supreme Court for, once again, having had the courage to say “NO!” to a President who thought he was unaccountable!

In 1974, in US V Richard Nixon, the Supreme Court ordered that the Watergate Tapes be handed over to the Special Prosecutior, by a 8-0 decision, leading to the resignation of the President. Three of the votes against Nixon came from Justices he had appointed.

In 1997, in Clinton V Jones, the Supreme Court ordered that the President testify in a civil trial dealing with sexual harassment, leading to his impeachment for lying before a grand jury. The vote was unanimous, with even the two Clinton appointees in the majority!

And now in 2020, the Supreme Court unanimously, with even the three Justices appointed by Donald Trump, throwing out the frivolous case backed by 17 state Attorneys General and 126 House Republicans (two thirds of the party in that chamber), that wished to throw out the votes of the four swing states that went to Joe Biden, insuring him of victory in the Presidential Election of 2020!

The Supreme Court has its critics, and has some members whose ethics and morals are suspect, but the Supreme Court proved its mettle in a crisis moment, and once again limited Presidential power. It prevented a dictatorship from being established by the most corrupt President in American history who, even with a potential pardon by himself (which would be illegal) or by Mike Pence, will pay the price for his violations of the law in New York State, and face likely conviction and a prison sentence!

The Donald Trump Base Is Withering Rapidly

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As the election day ticks down to 22 days today, it is clear that the Donald Trump base of about 35-40 percent is withering rapidly.

The COVID 19 Pandemic and the outrageously poor reaction of Donald Trump and Mike Pence to that disaster is turning senior citizens and even white working class men away from Donald Trump.

The fact that he has called his followers “disgusting”, and glad he does not have to shake their hands, is being noted by many former Trump supporters who now realize Trump would not want them at his Mar A Lago residence in Florida.

Trump is massively losing among those of his former supporters who have a brain and intelligence, morality, and ethics, and see what a disgusting human being he is!

More Trump backers in 2016 have seen how dangerous and unstable he is, and how his narcissism has led him to endanger American foreign policy, and side with authoritarian leaders, including Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, and Mohammed bin Salman, among others.

Many conservatives are realizing that Trump is not a conservative, and many former Republican officeholders have repudiated him as a destroyer of Republican Party history and values.

Trump has made no effort to expand his receding base, and every poll, even on Fox News Channel, shows Joe Biden far ahead in “swing states”, and competing even in states that by all rights should not be contestable, including Georgia, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Arizona.

This is not an issue of whether Joe Biden is a perfect candidate, as no such person exists, but rather whether he represents the interests and concerns of average Americans, whose families have struggled and continue to struggle.

Joe Biden comes from a working class background, and has always had the traits needed for a President—intelligence, knowledge, experience, compassion, empathy, decency, morals, ethics, humanity, and a magnificent record of service unmatched in American history.

The nation is realizing Joe Biden is the right person to deal with the worst conditions we have seen since the Great Depression, far greater than the Great Recession of a decade ago. Only his approach to the future, with Kamala Harris by his side, can help the nation to recover from the COVID 19 Pandemic, the economic calamity, and the racial divide that has been encouraged by the Trump Administration.

America Is In The Most Dangerous Constitutional Crisis In All Of Its History, More Than 1860 Or 1932!

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Shocking but true, America has just entered into its most dangerous constitutional crisis in all of its history, more than 1860 or 1932.

The Civil War has always been regarded as the most difficult moment constitutionally, as the Civil War was on the horizon, but Abraham Lincoln won the election, and was inaugurated peacefully on March 4, 1861.

The Great Depression was at its worse at the time of the election in 1932, but Franklin D. Roosevelt won the election, and was inaugurated peacefully on March 4, 1933.

Both Lincoln and FDR faced assassination threats, but both survived and became our greatest Presidents.

Other times, we have had contested or close elections, as in 1800, 1824, 1876, 1880, 1916, 1960, 2000, and 2016, but always there was a peaceful transition of government from one President to another, without rancor.

But now, yesterday, President Donald Trump indicated that he would not guarantee a peaceful transition of power, that the mail ballots should be thrown out, and his administration continue in office beyond January 20, 2021, and that an extra Supreme Court Justice might be enough to rule in Trump’s favor. Also, there are plans behind the scenes to have Presidential electors in many swing states be convinced to support Trump in the Electoral College, even if Trump is seen as losing the popular vote in many states.

This is alarming, and presages a constitutional crisis that would be worse than 1860 or 1932, and a move by Trump to destroy the Constitution and rule of law, and the establishment of an authoritarian Fascist oriented dictatorship!

It means we have a tense 40 days until the election, and a potentially tense 78 days to Inauguration Day, whereby Trump could declare martial law, or we could have both Trump and Biden coming to Inauguration Day as the perceived winner by their own camps, and how that would be handled.

Our system of government has always been based on the loser accepting defeat, not being a sore loser, and not threatening to provoke violence by his supporters, but Trump is already doing this at his no mask, no social distancing, rallies, an alarming development.

This is a moment of reckoning for all elected Republicans, that while they want to compete to win power, that they have to respect the Constitution and rule of law, and NOT support a renegade President, if the election results are clearly in favor of Joe Biden, as is expected.

We have to hope that Biden wins by a massive margin, as otherwise, we are in uncharted territory, and even if it is a massive victory, Trump might claim it is a stolen election, and throw it to the courts, and a newly appointed Associate Justice could be the decisive factor in deciding whether we retain our democracy.

The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, ironically, could be a major turning point in American history in a negative fashion way beyond the passing of this great woman!

We cannot allow that to occur!

Joe Biden Should Seek To Win Strongly “Red” States, To Promote Democratic Strength, And Humiliate Donald Trump!

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There is a growing feeling of a Democratic “Tsunami” on the way on November 3, 2020, when the Presidential and Congressional Elections take place across the nation.

Indications are that Joe Biden is working hardest on convincing voters to support him in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the three “swing” states that Hillary Clinton lost by small margins.

If those three states switched from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, then the former Vice President would win the Electoral College.

But since there is no guarantee, it is important for Biden to work hard to win Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona as well, to allow for any slippage in the three states lost by Clinton by small numbers. So a lot of effort is going into winning those three states listed, as Biden is now comfortably ahead in all three, along with the other three.

If Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as well as Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona it will be a massive victory, which is almost certain to insure that the Senate would go Democratic by more than the three minimum victories needed. And the House of Representatives would add to the Democratic margin gained in the midterm elections of 2018.

But the argument is why not also go for states that seem long shots–Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa, all of which would make Joe Biden a landslide winner by far?

And even further, why not try to win Kansas and Montana?

So if things go well, the Democrats could have the most massive victory for the Presidency since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and could be a sign of a Democratic majority that would be long lasting!

The total humiliation of Donald Trump would be a wonderful event to witness!

Not Much To Be Happy About On Independence Day 2020

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Tomorrow, America celebrates the 244th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, but there is not much to be happy about.

We are precisely four months away from the most important election since 1940, and the fear is that, somehow, Donald Trump, will manage to fix an election, where every public opinion poll imaginable shows him losing in every single “swing” state, and not by close margins in most of these states.

A constitutional crisis is likely, and the country is so stressed that it could lead to bloodshed and violence, possibly endangering Joe Biden, and whoever is his running mate for Vice President, about a month away from announcement.

The challenge for Joe Biden is massive, not only to win, but to govern in an effective way, starting January 20, 2021.

The most important thing is for every American to take his or her responsibility, and get out there and vote, and encourage everyone he or she knows to do the same, as lack of voting only helps the most dangerous and unhinged President in our history!

Joe Biden And Stacey Abrams Put On Stellar Performance On MSNBC On Thursday Evening!

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With Joe Biden leading in all polls in most, if not all, of the “swing states” in the upcoming Presidential Election of 2020, Trump supporters and naysayers are trying to convince the nation that Joe Biden is mentally incapable to be President, as if Donald Trump is seen as mentally capable now and for the past three plus years.

Well, two nights ago, Joe Biden came on MSNBC with former Georgia gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, and both of them put on stellar, superb performances to all of the questions posed by citizens and also by Lawrence O’Donnell.

Joe Biden may not be perfect in every way, but most certainly Donald Trump is pathetic, as proved by his maniacal Twitter feed and public utterances daily.

Biden is perfectly capable of being President, and will have a strong female Vice Presidential running mate, who might be Stacey Abrams, but there are certainly others who might be preferable, including Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar.

Donald Trump is trying to destroy Joe Biden, but instead, he is destroying himself daily!

The Potential Of Justin Amash To “Mess Up” The 2020 Presidential Election Is High

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Michigan Congressman Justin Amash, elected as a Tea Party Congressman in the Republican “wave” of 2010, went on to a ten year career, including heading the “Liberty Caucus” and being a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, an extreme right wing group that warred against Speaker John Boehner and his successor, Paul Ryan.

Amash went on to vote for the impeachment of Donald Trump in 2019, and to leave the Republican Party, and now he is an announced candidate for the Libertarian Party Presidential nomination.

Considering that Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party nominee received about 3.3 percent of the popular vote and 4.5 million votes in 2016, it is a concern whether Amash could perform at the same level in 2020, and whether it would harm Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the election.

Amash is complicated, as he supports the following that could bring over disaffected Democrats who wanted Bernie Sanders:

He voted against religious institutions being eligible for FEMA grants.

He supported gay marriage being left alone after the Supreme Court ruled in favor in 2015.

He has stated his opposition to political gerrymandering.

He voted against the reauthorization of the Patriot Act in 2011.

He voted against the Trump executive order banning migrating of people from seven majority Muslim nations.

He has stated his support of transgender American rights.

He has opposed building a Mexico Wall.

He has refused to support Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) without agreement that there have been abuses that need to be addressed, while believing in the basic mission of ICE.

He has opposed US support of Saudi Arabia in its war against Yemen.

He has voted against any war against Iran by executive decision, only if Congress agreed by majority vote of both houses of Congress.

And of course, he has been a consistent critic of Donald Trump from the beginning.

So, while Amash is a big Trump critic, he could get disaffected Democrats who are not thrilled with Joe Biden, to vote for him, and that could be a decisive factor in his home state of Michigan and other “swing’ states!

Six Months To The Presidential Election Of 2020: A First Assessment

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With six months and three days until the Presidential Election of 2020, it is time to make a first assessment of the upcoming election.

This author has just published an article on History News Network under my blog “Ronald L Feinman” stating that this upcoming election is the most important since 1940, and one of the five most significant elections in American history, along with 1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940.

Donald Trump is reported going totally off the rails on this, the 75th anniversary of the suicide of Adolf Hitler, and it gets one to think about what may yet happen, as Trump is falling behind Joe Biden in every imaginable poll nationally, and in the “swing” states, including the crucial state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.

If Trump loses Florida, where many senior citizens retire and are dying in the midst of this CoronaVirus Pandemic, there is no practical way for him to win reelection.

With the pandemic which he is refusing to deal with rationally, only thinking about his election, and willing to endanger any crowd that might gather in Arizona or Ohio in coming weeks, and also wanting children back in school even if it undermines and threatens the lives of their parents and grandparents, Trump is clearly on the road to a massive defeat in November!

So, subject to change, here is my assessment of the upcoming election:

Joe Biden will win the 20 states that Hillary Clinton won:

All 6 New England states and add the second district of Maine, which went to Trump in 2016–33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic States of New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia, plus Virginia–72 electoral votes

Midwest States of Illinois and Minnesota–30 electoral votes

Mountain States of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada–20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii–78 electoral votes

So the “base”, adding the second district of Maine to the total, is 233 electoral votes of 270 needed.

Adding to that are the crucial states that Hillary Clinton lost in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (really considered more Northeast but also considered in western section as Midwest)—46

That brings the electoral vote total to 279, enough to win the Presidency for Joe Biden.

However, the trend is strongly in favor of other states turning “Blue”, with the Second Great Depression upon us, along with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and the reality that Trump policies have alienated many groups:

Senior Citizens

Suburban Women

College Educated

Lower and Middle Income Voters

Racial Minorities (African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans)

Jews, Social Justice Catholics, Mainline Protestants

Young People Under 35

Independents

Moderate Republicans

Conservative Intellectuals

Of course, one is not saying that all of these groups will vote “Blue”, but it seems highly likely enough will vote that way and cause a smashing defeat for Donald Trump!

So what other states seem likely to go Democratic, in some cases, by small margins?

In order as follows:

Arizona–11 electoral votes

North Carolina–15 electoral votes

Florida–29 electoral votes

Nebraska–2nd Congressional District–1 electoral vote

Ohio–18 electoral votes

Georgia–16 electoral votes

Iowa–6 electoral votes

Montana–3 electoral votes

Kansas–6 electoral votes

Texas–38 electoral votes

So my estimate at this time, six months before the election, is a maximum of 32 states and DC for Biden and 18 for Trump, and 422 electoral votes to 116 for Trump.

The 116 electoral votes for Trump in 18 states would be:

West Virginia 5

Kentucky 8

South Carolina 9

Alabama 9

Mississippi 6

Louisiana 8

Arkansas 6

Tennessee 11

Missouri 10

Indiana 11

North Dakota 3

South Dakota 3

Nebraska 4 (not including 2nd District)

Oklahoma 7

Utah 6

Wyoming 3

Idaho 4

Alaska 3

But actually, Missouri (10) and Indiana (11) could, by earlier history, surprise, and also vote against Trump and support Biden by small margins, meaning there could be 34 states and a grand total of 443 to 95 in the Electoral College for the Democrats!

Remember that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Missouri was always with the winner since 1900, except in 1956, 2008 (both by small margins of about 4,000 votes) and 2012 when the margin was larger for the defeated candidate, Mitt Romney!

So the exact parameters of the Donald Trump defeat are not final, but this would seem to be the maximum, as another nearly 4 million Americans today filed for unemployment, a total of about 30 million, one out of five workers in the nation, approximately, which would mean a 20 percent unemployment rate, and growing.

If it goes over 25 percent in coming weeks, it will be worse than even the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the American people soundly defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932, and elected Franklin D. Roosevelt!

And realize that the average family size can be considered probably a family of four although there are many households of fewer than four, but if one considers that as a statistic, that means one out of three people directly are affected by unemployment, an astounding 33-35 percent rate, unimaginable and horrific!

The next President will have a challenge on the level of FDR and Abraham Lincoln!