Third Parties

If Donald Trump Loses Just 4 Percent Of Republican Voters, He Loses Election Massively!

Ronald 2 Comments

Donald Trump is losing more than four percent of Republican voters, according to public opinion polls, who seem mostly to be cultish like, willing to accept any Trump outrage as acceptable.

But the revelation that Trump has paid no federal taxes for 10 of the last 15 years through 2017, and only paid $750 each year of 2016 and 2017, is enough to turn a small sliver of Republicans, who still have a brain and reasoning power, against Trump!

After all, they and the rest of us, except the very wealthy, DO pay federal taxes, so why should Donald Trump NOT pay his fair share of taxes?

Trump also has exploited the federal budget with all of the costs of all his golfing adventures, and charging everyone who goes to any of his Trump hotels, including Vice President Mike Pence and others, higher rates, paid at federal budget expense. And when his children travel and spend, it is all on the rest of us taxpayers!

So statistics indicate that Trump has no chance to win simply by losing a small percentage of Republican voters, which now seems certain!

Beyond the small sliver of Republicans who have a brain and ethics, also consider that Joe Biden’s lead among women is nearly double that of Hillary Clinton in 2016, and that similar statistics hold for independents and moderates for Biden as compared to Clinton in 2016.

And third parties will not take nearly 6 percent of the vote and help Trump this time around, but rather no more than 2-3 percent at most.

Joe Biden will go into Tuesday night’s debate with a tremendous edge, and all he needs to do is expose the lies, the danger, and the incompetence of Donald Trump.

Also, realize that Trump is losing MORE former Republican officeholders and cabinet and military personnel who served under Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush, as well as those who worked for the Presidential campaigns of Bob Dole, John McCain, and Mitt Romney!

And many conservative commentators, those NOT connected to Fox News Channel, or other further right wing media, also long have condemned Trump, and are engaged in working to retire him, and bring him to justice!

So watch as Donald Trump deteriorates before our eyes in the next month, and yet threatens American democracy, while the military has made it clear that they will not back any undemocratic moves by the Fascist in the White House!

New Analysis Of Presidential Vote: Trump Had A Majority of Eleven Million Popular Votes Against Him, Far From A Mandate!

Ronald 6 Comments

As the Presidential Inauguration comes upon on us in five days, a new analysis of the election results shows the repudiation of Donald Trump by the American people.

Yes, the Electoral College, an outdated system that should be reformed, but will not be, made him the winner because of an 80,000 votes margin in three states–Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

But there were a total of 137 million popular votes and Trump won only 63 million, meaning he lost 74 million, a total of ELEVEN million majority against him!

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by almost 3 million, but almost 8 million votes were cast for other candidates and third parties. So other candidates received, together, SIX percent of the vote, although no states were won by other than Trump and Clinton.

So Donald Trump does NOT have a mandate, and public opinion polls already show him the least popular President-Elect ever since polling began!

The Destructive Nature Of Third Parties: Protest Vote But Leads Too Often To Less Preferable Nominee Winning White House

Ronald 4 Comments

Third Parties are supposed to represent democracy in action, but we have now learned the hard way that it denies popular vote winners the Presidency!

It happened in 2000, when Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan took enough votes away to harm Al Gore, and elect George W. Bush.

And now it has happened again in 2016, with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein taking enough votes to harm Hillary Clinton and elect Donald Trump.

Bush did much harm in his Presidency, and realistically, Donald Trump can be seen as likely to do even greater damage.

Any one who voted third party in 2000 or 2016 should feel guilt, as it has led to the worse choice, and nothing was accomplished, except maybe to feel good that one protested.

There is no way to prevent third party movements, but it has NEVER had a positive effect, with maybe the exception of Theodore Roosevelt’s Progressive (Bull Moose) Party in 1912.

But in a democracy, nothing can be done to prevent this harmful action from taking place, so likely, we will lose the better Presidential nominee more times in the future!

A 1912 Election In 2016: A Third Party Campaign Ending Up Second, And Republican Candidate Third?

Ronald 4 Comments

In the crazy world of American politics, the concept has grown that we could be witnessing an election in 2016 that might emulate the Presidential Election of 1912, where Woodrow Wilson, the Democrat defeated Theodore Roosevelt, the Progressive (Bull Moose) Party nominee, and Republican President William Howard Taft.

We could, in theory, have businessman Donald Trump, who is, right now, riding high in the polls, being treated in a way that he feels is unjust. He has already said that he would not pledge to support the Republican nominee for President, if if is not him, and if he feels he has been treated unfairly.

So, were that scenario to happen, Trump could, very well, run on a third party or independent ticket, copying the route of billionaire Ross Perot, who ran as an independent in 1992, helping to elect Bill Clinton over President George H. W. Bush.

We could have Hillary Clinton, or even Joe Biden, if he chooses to run, or even Bernie Sanders, benefit from a Republican party split. And imagine if Jeb Bush was the losing Republican candidate to another Clinton.

But also, Trump has shown strength in a poll in a three way races, with him gaining 20 percent of the vote, similar to Ross Perot’s 19 percent in 1992.

But what if Trump’s popularity were to continue to grow, and Trump could match third party nominee Theodore Roosevelt’s 27.5 percent of the vote in 1912, leading TR to end up second, rather than third, the only time a third party has ended up second instead of third?

Imagine the shock if Clinton or Biden or even Sanders won 42-43 percent of the vote and won the Electoral College, with Bush or some other Republican ending up third behind Trump, just as President William Howard Taft did in 1912, when he only won 23 percent of the vote!

If Trump were to end up with mid 20s percentage of the vote, it would be likely that he would win some states in the Electoral College, with the Republican winning very few states, as with Taft only winning two states in 1912.

That scenario, were it to happen, would be the true demise of the Republican Party as we know it, but maybe, just maybe, it would lead to a “purging” of the party, and a return to moderate centrist conservative government, and an ultimate revival resembling the party of the Eisenhower to Ford years!

A Third Party In The Offing: Not Likely!

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With the disgust over the disaster of the 113th Congress, and the GOP inspired government shutdown, the public opinion support for a third party has risen to its highest point in a decade, with 60 percent stating such a belief, in a Gallup Poll.

The frustration is understandable, but the American system of government has never moved toward a three party system, which would create the need for coalitions, and prevent passage of legislation, making it more difficult than the split Congress has demonstrated.

Third party history has been one of protest, and having an effect on who wins the Presidency, and promoting new ideas that often are later accepted by one or the other major political parties.

What is much more likely than a third party competing with the two major parties is a political realignment, with the Democrats likely to benefit by the civil war in the Republican Party.

And the Tea Party Movement is doomed, as the American people are catching on as to how destructive and negative that movement has been in the past four years.

The Republican Party has had a history of some great leaders and accomplishments, but their ability to compete is doomed, until and when they recognize that moving to the Far Right is a disaster, and that they must appeal to the voting groups that they have antagonized, including minorities, the young, woman, labor, and the struggling middle class.

And they must repudiate the hold of religion over their party, and emphasize tolerance, open mindedness, and a belief in the power of science, or else they will never be competing, and might be replaced by a new party!

Famous Party Switchers (51) In American History

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The news that former Republican Governor Charlie Crist of Florida, who left the GOP in 2010 and became an Independent, has now registered as a Democrat, and is certain to run for Governor again in 2014 in the Sunshine State, brings to mind the interesting list of famous party switchers in American history, whether from one party to the other, or from one party to an independent or third party.

This is nothing new at all, and some of the most courageous and outstanding political leaders, many of them historic, have done the same thing that Charlie Crist has done.

Among the best known are the following:

Future Or Past Presidents Who Switched Parties

Martin Van Buren
Millard Fillmore
Abraham Lincoln
Theodore Roosevelt
Ronald Reagan

Presidential Candidates Who Switched Parties

Martin Van Buren
Millard Fillmore
Theodore Roosevelt
Robert La Follette, Sr.
Wendell Willkie
Henry A. Wallace
George Wallace
John Anderson
Pat Buchanan

Senators Who Switched Parties

Robert La Follette, Jr.
George Norris
Henrik Shipstead
Wayne Morse
Harry Byrd, Sr.
Strom Thurmond
Richard Shelby
Ben Nighthorse Campbell
Robert Smith
Jim Jeffords
Joe Lieberman
Arlen Specter

US Congressmen Who Switched Parties

Donald Riegle, later Senator
Phil Gramm, later Senator

Others Who Switched Parties And Later Identity

William Seward, Senator And Secretary of State
Salmon Chase, Senator, And Chief Justice Of Supreme Court
Raymond Moley, Brain Trust Adviser to FDR
Jesse Helms, Senator
John Connally, Governor and Secretary Of The Treasury
Trent Lott, Senator
Elizabeth Dole, Senator
Hillary Clinton, Senator And Secretary Of State
Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State
Jeane Kirkpatrick, United Nations Ambassador
William Bennett, Secretary Of Education And Drug Czar
Rick Perry, Governor
Susana Martinez, Governor
Norm Coleman, Senator
Michael Bloomberg, Mayor Of New York City
John Lindsey, Mayor Of New York City
Rudy Guiliani, Mayor Of New York City
Howard Dean, Governor
Leon Panetta, Secretary of Defense
Carolyn McCarthy, Congresswoman
James Webb, Senator
Charles Barkley, National Basketball Association Star
Arianna Huffington, Journalist And Blogger
Lowell Weicker, Senator
Lincoln Chafee, Senator
Jesse Ventura, Governor

What an ALL STAR list this is, 51 individuals, a lot of the most outstanding political talent in American history!

Gary Johnson And Virgil Goode Could Siphon Support For Mitt Romney In Several “Swing” States

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Gary Johnson is the former Republican New Mexico Governor, and Libertarian Party candidate for President. He is also on the ballot in 47 states.

Virgil Goode is a former Republican Congressman from a district in Virginia, and Constitution Party candidate for President. He is also on the ballot in two dozen states.

Johnson is believed to have support in New Mexico, Montana, Nevada and Colorado, while Goode is thought to have support in Virginia.

Notice that these are all considered “swing” states, although New Mexico has been seen as less so than it once was, and is generally not included in recent months as being in that category. And Montana is one of those few states thought to be Republican, but with some possibility of switching to the Democrats.

But also notice that all of these states are now considered to be in favor of Barack Obama, except Montana.

So the question arises, will these former Republicans hurt Romney enough that he loses these “swing” states and even Montana, or will Obama win even with some support for Johnson and Goode in these states?

In other words, can Johnson and Goode end up for Romney as Ralph Nader was for Al Gore in 2000, the difference in votes that caused Gore’s defeat for President?

It will be interesting to see if either or both third party candidates have a significant impact on the results of the election!

Presidential Debate Dates Announced For Colorado, Kentucky, New York And Florida

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The Commission on Presidential Debates has announced the dates and locations for the Presidential debates of 2012.

The first debate will be at the University of Denver in Colorado, on Wednesday, October 3, just about five weeks before the election.

On Thursday, October 11, the Vice Presidential debate will take place at Centre College In Danville, Kentucky, where an earlier debate was held.

Then on Tuesday, October 16, a second Presidential debate will be held at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, also a previous debate location.

Finally, on Monday, October 22, the final debate will be held at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, just fifteen days before the election.

The fact that two of the debates are in “swing states”, the first and the last, is noteworthy, based on the concept of “first impressions” and “last licks or opportunity”!

A planned backup site, in case for some reason one of the debates cannot for some reason be held, is Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, the ultimate “swing” state, which was won by John McCain over Barack Obama by just a few thousand votes, with it taking many days before McCain could be declared the winner in that state.

One should point out that since 1900, only TWICE has the winner of the Presidency lost Missouri, and both times just by a few thousand votes–Dwight D. Eisenhower losing to Adlai Stevenson in 1956, and Barack Obama losing to John McCain in 2008!

The only candidates to be allowed in the debates will be those who have 15 percent support in the polls, with Ross Perot in 1992 being the only third party candidate to have the opportunity to debate the Republican and Democratic nominees. It is highly unlikely that any third party movement will have any chance to reach that threshold!

Could Jon Huntsman Be The John Anderson Of 2012? What Effect Could It Have On The Presidential Election?

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Some speculation and rumors are beginning that Jon Huntsman, the moderate centrist candidate in the Republican race for the Presidential nomination, might abandon the party and run as a third party candidate, appealing to the center of the population. Right now, in reality, he scores exactly one percent in eighth and last place of the Gallup poll, on the Republican race for President, so he might not have any sustaining influence, but who can know this far ahead?:

Huntsman has been depicting Barack Obama as too far to the Left, and all of his GOP opponents as too far to the RIght, and his argument is that the Center, where most people are, needs to have representation in the election.

Huntsman is an appealing candidate in his appearance and speaking manner, and comes across as rational and reasonable to people who are disgusted at the growing right wing extremism of the Republican Party. He has personal wealth, and is courted by the news media, so in theory, he could run a substantial third party of independent bid.

In many respects, he appears to be similar to former Illinois Congressman John Anderson, once one of the top leaders of the Republican minority, who left the party and ran as an Independent in 1980, claiming that President Jimmy Carter had been disappointing and that Ronald Reagan was too far to the Right. After winning a lot of media support and 15 percent in polls, he was able to gain the opportunity to meet Reagan in one debate, with Carter refusing to confront him. Anderson made Reagan look weak in their debate, but then Reagan performed well against Carter and won a landslide victory, with Anderson only winning 7 percent of the vote. Many who flirted with Anderson, including this author, ended up not voting for him, with the recognition that third party or independent candidates only hurt one of the candidates, and cannot win with the Electoral College reality which favors the major party candidates.

If Huntsman were to run, the question is would he hurt Obama or the Republican nominee more? There is no easy answer to this question, but it would certainly “muddy up the waters” of the campaign were he to do that.

Sadly, even if one hoped that such a so called Centrist candidate were to run, at the end we are going to have either Obama or the Republican nominee as our President for the next term, and easily the preference would be for Obama, who the author regards as the best Democratic President since Lyndon B. Johnson!

The author was not thrilled at the time with Jimmy Carter, and often even with Bill Clinton later, but right now, he would be opposed to a Jon Huntsman, or any other, third party candidate, who might just harm Obama and elect the horrors of a Rick Perry or Michele Bachmann or Ron Paul!

Time For Reality Check On Balanced Budget Constitutional Amendment And Third Party Potential For Success In Presidential Elections

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Unfortunately, many Americans, probably a vast majority, live with a false set of facts about American government, as it stands under the Constitution. There is a major need for a reality check!

Many people, including Republicans in Congress, seem to think that a balanced budget amendment will solve our economic problems, when there is absolutely no chance of that occurring! Any constitutional amendment required a two thirds vote of the House of Representatives, followed by a two thirds vote of the US Senate, and then a majority vote in each of the two houses in three fourths or 38 of the 50 states, with the only exception being Nebraska, which only has a one house or unicameral legislature.

We are not ever going to bring about 290 out of 435 votes in the House of Representatives and 67 out of 100 votes in the Senate for such an amendment! Only 36 proposed amendments have EVER achieved this two thirds vote, and the number of failed amendments is in the hundreds over our history!

But notice, even with 36 amendments making it through the Congress, we have only 27 amendments, telling us that NINE amendments failed to gain a three fourths support of state legislatures. Another way to put it is that IF there is a one vote majority in one of the two houses of the state legislatures against an amendment in just THIRTEEN states at a minimum, the amendment fails to be added to the Constitution.

There is no realistic possibility of a balanced budget amendment EVER making it into the Constitution, no matter what politicians say! And were it to happen, it would create a strait jacket, paralyzing us in a time of economic collapse, war, or natural disaster, no matter what limitations are put into such an amendment. It is time for serious minded people to give up the idea that such an amendment will EVER pass, and instead, take responsibility for the fact that the federal government IS necessary, and that we are all going to have to pay more taxes, whether we like it or not, and that it is PATRIOTIC to pay our fair share, including the super wealthy being thankful for their good fortune, and paying the tax level they used to pay from the 1940s through the 1970s, and certainly at the least, the levels of the Bill Clinton years in the White House!

It is also time for “dreamers”, who have the view that a serious third party movement could lead to the election of a President, to get a reality check as well!

Our electoral college system, which can only be changed by a constitutional amendment, which is not going to happen either, prevents a third party candidate from winning, with Theodore Roosevelt performing the best as a third party candidate of the Progressive Party in 1912, but only winning six states and 88 electoral votes, about a third of what is needed to win the White House. The only reason even he did that well was that he was a former President and extremely popular. Such a scenario will NEVER happen again, particularly with the 22nd Amendment, which limits Presidents to two complete terms in office, something not existing in 1912, when Theodore Roosevelt ran for what would have been a third, but non consecutive term as President.

Even if such a thing could happen, a third party candidate without major party backing would have an impossible situation gaining support to govern effectively, as indeed, independent Governor Jesse Ventura of Minnesota discovered in his term from 1999-2003!

For good or for bad, we are stuck with the two party system, and we will be electing a Democrat or a Republican for the Presidency for the long term future!

So forget the constitutional amendment route for a balanced budget, and ignore the thoughts of a third party movement electing a President, and instead accept the reality of the American future–we need to work within the system and just pick better people for public office, as we always have the right to do by voting and organizing, and stop hating our government, which with its faults, is still essential and necessary in our daily lives, as much as we would wish otherwise in our dreams!