Virginia

Federal District Court Judges And Same Sex Marriage Bans Collapsing!

Ronald 1 Comment

The move toward same sex marriage churns on, with federal judges having utilized the 14th Amendment in four “Red” states in the past two months now to end the discrimination against gays marrying.

So on Valentine’s Day, it now looks more evident than ever that a national Supreme Court decision is in the offing, with Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy, who wrote the majority decision in Lawrence V. Texas in 2003 igniting the gay civil rights movement, likely to be the fifth and decisive vote in any case that goes to the high Court!

Who would ever have thought that Utah, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and now, newly turned “Blue” Virginia (the state of the Loving V. Virginia interracial marriage case in 1967), would see such rapid action to defy the bigots and the haters?

The federal courts have been the herald of the future in so much of modern history, as with Brown V. Board of Education on racial integration, and Roe V. Wade on abortion rights, and Lawrence V. Texas on gay rights, and the courage of federal district judges across the nation to push the Supreme Court toward a final determination of same sex marriage is an indication that often we have to leave it to appointed judges to lead us to our better side of human nature, the ending of discrimination and injustice!

Sadly, we see right wing evangelicals, Catholics, and Mormons fighting a rear guard action, which only makes one realize the evils of these organized groups that have in the past been on the wrong side of many moral and ethical issues, overlooking slavery, segregation, women’s rights, and now gay rights. This is a losing battle long term, and these groups fighting against progress and human rights will pay the price in loss of membership by their willingness to fight a battle that is already lost!

The Presidential Election Of 2016–257 Democrats, 206 Republicans, Five States (75) Swing States!

Ronald 38 Comments

With Chris Christie, the New Jersey Governor, starting to lose public support due to the multiple scandals emerging in the past two weeks, the Republican Party is in crisis mode, as Christie was thought to have the best chance to defeat Hillary Clinton, or any other Democrat in the Presidential Election of 2016.

In actual fact, Christie had no real chance to win, and it was highly unlikely that he could have emerged from the primaries and caucuses as the nominee of his party, in the first place.

The facts have been there all along: the Democrats are a lock to win the Presidency in 2016 and beyond, with their support from Hispanics-Latinos, African Americans, women, labor, young people, educated people who believe in science, and those who believe in the promotion of gay rights, including marriage, whether they are gay or lesbian or straight in their sexual orientation!

The Electoral College is a “fait accompli” for the Democrats, with a guaranteed 257 electoral votes to 206 for the Republicans! Only five states are truly in play, and the Democrats won all five in 2008 and 2012, and are likely to win most, if not all of these five states, in 2016!

These states are:

Florida 29 electoral votes
Ohio 18 electoral votes
Virginia 13 electoral votes
Colorado 9 electoral vote
Nevada 6 electoral votes

This is a grand total of 75 electoral votes in dispute!

So If the Democrats win Florida, or Ohio, or Virginia, they win the Presidency!

If they win Colorado and Nevada together, with none of the other three, they win the Presidency!

To believe that the Democratic nominee will not win the small number of 13 electoral votes needed to win the required number of 270, requires one to be in hallucination!

Face the facts: The Democrats will win the White House in 2016, no matter who is their nominee, and since any likely candidate will be white, not African American as Barack Obama is, just makes the job of winning somewhat easier!

Of course, if the Democratic nominee wins all five of the above states in contention, then that person wins 332 electoral votes to 206 for the Republican nominee.

This is precisely the electoral vote in 2012!

And realize that Texas (38), Georgia (16). and North Carolina (15) all are moving toward the likelihood of Democrats winning their electoral vote by 2020, if not 2016, and North Carolina having gone for Barack Obama in 2008, if not in 2012!

So were these states to switch, not likely but possible in 2016, the electoral vote in 2016 could be as high as 401-137!

The Most Significant Long Range Events Of 2013

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Now that we are in the last day of 2013, it is time to reflect on what the most significant long range events of 2013 are, events that will affect us in the future, and are signs of progress, which can never be reversed.

They include in no special order:

The accomplishment of national health care, a dream since Theodore Roosevelt first mentioned the concept in his Progressive Party campaign in 1912, later suggested by Harry Truman, partially enacted by Lyndon B. Johnson, attempted by Bill and Hillary Clinton unsuccessfully, promoted by Senator Ted Kennedy, and finally becoming law under Barack Obama. Even with all of the kinks and quirks now and in the future, national health care is here to stay, finally making America reach the stage of all other democracies in the world, but as usual the last to adopt social and economic reform, as compared to Europe, Canada, and Australia.

The acceptance by the Supreme Court of the concept of gay marriage, and the expansion from nine to eighteen states of acceptance of same sex marriage, and nothing will ever reverse what has happened, and eventually, the Supreme Court will mandate its legality throughout America, just as they did for interracial marriage in 1967. Many may not like it, but just as with interracial marriage, one does not have to engage in either interracial or same sex marriage, but it is nobody’s business to tell someone else who he or she is to love and to have the benefits of marriage, and no religious institution needs to accept it, as civil marriage will always be available.

The civil war raging in the Republican Party, which will determine if the party of Lincoln, TR, and Ike will survive or go into the dustbin of history, which Is certain, if the right wing Tea Party Movement is allowed to take over the party apparatus, and control the House and Senate Republican caucuses, and control major state governments around the nation. An extreme right wing Republican Party will not survive, and will give the Democrats such dominance that a moderate centrist party, maybe on the pattern of the Whig Party of Henry Clay, Daniel Webster, John Quincy Adams and Abraham Lincoln in the 19th century, will then emerge as a valid alternative to the more leftist Democratic Party by comparison.

The rise of a permanent Democratic majority in the Electoral College, as Georgia, Texas, Arizona and North Carolina will turn “blue” over the rest of the second decade of the 21st century, due to the growth in the Hispanic-Latino population, and the alienation of women from the Republican Party, which is working to control the reproductive lives of women. Both groups will swing these Sun Belt States to the Democrats, and with the Atlantic Coast from New England down to Virginia, and the Pacific Coast and the Upper Midwest more “blue” all of the time, there will be no way that Democrats will lose the White House over the next couple of decades, whether they nominate Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, or someone else, for the Presidency in 2016 and beyond.

The Supreme Court will turn more liberal, as over the remaining years of this decade, the likelihood of new Supreme Court appointments, as well as circuit and district courts, will fall to Democratic Presidents, who no longer have to worry about a filibuster proof majority of 60 votes. The need for only 51 votes or 50 with the Vice President breaking the tie, insures that the courts, and eventually the high Court, will take a different view over time on same sex marriage, abortion rights, civil rights, and civil liberties, reminding one over the next two decades (due to lifetime appointments) of the history of the Warren Court.

A happy 2014 to all my readers and contributors!

Governors And The Presidential Election Of 2016

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It has often been pointed out that more Governors have been elected President over the course of American history than Senators.

From 1900 on, the following Presidents were earlier Governors of their states—Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush.

The argument is that being a Governor prepares one better for the Presidency than serving in the national government in Washington, DC.

Whether this is true or not, the argument now is that the national government, and particularly the Congress, is so engaged in stalemate and gridlock, that the best choice in the Presidential Election of 2016 would be to go once again for a Governor or former Governor, as occurred four times of the past six Presidents, and seven of the past ten national elections.

So if that is the case, what is the market among Governors?

First, the Democratic side:

Martin O’Malley of Maryland
Andrew Cuomo of New York
John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Mark Warner of Virginia
Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Jerry Brown of California
Howard Dean of Vermont
Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Dannel Malloy of Connecticut

Now the Republican side

Chris Christie of New Jersey
Jeb Bush of Florida
Scott Walker of Wisconsin
Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
Rick Perry of Texas
John Kasich of Ohio
Jon Huntsman of Utah
Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Mike Pence of Indiana
Brian Sandoval of Nevada
Susana Martinez of New Mexico
Rick Scott of Florida

So, at least in theory, nine former or sitting Democratic Governors and twelve former or sitting Republican Governors are potential Presidential nominees.

Having said that, it is clear that some of these two groups are highly unlikely to be a candidate, or to have any realistic chance to be the nominee, including for the Democrats: Brown, Dean, Malloy, and Patrick, and for the Republicans: Scott, Martinez, Sandoval, Pence, Haley, and sadly (because he would be the best choice for the GOP long term), Huntsman.

For the Democrats, O’Malley and Cuomo and Warner (who has also served in the Senate), would be the best choices, were it not for the “800 pound gorilla” of Hillary Clinton and the slightly smaller version of Joe Biden. Were it not for them, these three listed Democrats would be a great term to compete for the nomination. Hickenlooper is also a good candidate, but would not be considered as likely to have a good chance, and Schweitzer might very well run, based on recent comments and activities, but the odds for him, especially against Clinton and Biden as things now stand, are extremely high of failure, and even of being mostly ignored by political pundits.

For the Republicans, Christie and Bush would be the most likely to have a real opportunity for the Presidency, but with the Tea Party Movement, neither is very popular, to say the least. Walker might be a better bet on that score, with Jindal seeming less attractive as time goes by, and Perry a real long shot based on his past performances. The “dark horse” to watch would be Kasich, who had a long career on Capitol Hill and knows how Washington works, and despite his mixed record in so many areas, is personally appealing, unlike any of those listed In this paragraph, in many ways the most appealing personally other than Huntsman.

If one had to bet which of each list would have the best chance, all things being equal, one would say O’Malley for the Democrats and Kasich for the Republicans, but the odds are that it will be someone from Capitol Hill–Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden for the Democrats, and Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or Paul Ryan for the Republicans, with the Democrats having the clear edge in the Electoral College, because of the support of the Atlantic Coast and Pacific Coast, and the likelihood of strong support in the upper Midwest and Illinois and Iowa, along with Virginia, an unmatchable scenario for the Republicans, as we look at the political situation as 2013 ends, but always subject to changing times that are unpredictable.

Virginia State Leaders All Democrats For First Time Since 1969 State Election: Harbinger Of Future In South!

Ronald 6 Comments

It is now official. Virginia has the first all “blue” state government, with the top three state officials–Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General being Democrats–since the 1969 state election, 34 years ago!

And the state has gone Democratic twice for Barack Obama, and its two US Senators are Democrats.

With the northern Virginia suburbs going Democratic, and the seat of Republican Congressman Frank Wolf, a moderate Republican now open in 2014, due to the retirement of Wolf after 34 years, it is clear that Virginia is becoming more clearly “blue”, a harbinger for the South, as the Hispanic-Latino population continues to grow.

Over the next few years, we will see more of this growing trend toward “blue” in the South, with Georgia next, and soon after Texas, and once that happens, the chances of the Republican Party winning Presidential elections, the ability to win the Electoral College, will be a dim memory, particularly with the growing right wing trend of the GOP.

The Republican Party is committing suicide before our eyes, and if the Tea Party succeeds in defeating sitting traditional conservative Republicans in primaries in 2014, the acceleration toward “blue” will multiply!

PS A correction needs to be made. All three state officials plus the two US Senators are Democrats for first time since 1969, but in 1989 the Democrats won all three statewide elections for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General, and had one Senator (Chuck Robb), while the other Senator was John Warner, a Republican. Just wish to clarify this matter and I thank Engineer of Knowledge for making me aware of the need to modify this entry!

Virginia Unlikely To See Democratic Agenda Accomplished With Heavily Republican Legislature, And Florida Could Have Same Scenario A Year From Now!

Ronald 16 Comments

It is great news for Democrats that Terry McAuliffe has been elected Governor of Virginia over right wing extremist Ken Cuccinelli, but sadly, with the legislature being heavily Republican, the prediction is that little of the new Governor’s agenda for reform is likely to be adopted.

And after the election for Governor in Florida in 2014, even if former Republican Governor Charlie Crist, turned Independent in 2010 for the Senate race, and now Democratic for the gubernatorial race, succeeds in defeating highly unpopular Governor Rick Scott, the GOP hold on the legislature is still likely to be very powerful, and prevent Crist from accomplishing much of what his agenda might be.

So two key states, and possibly more, with decisions of voters to split power, will be just as paralyzed in the ability to have progress, and be as stymied to a great extent, as in Washington, DC, with a Republican House of Representatives and a Democratic Senate.

The argument that divided government is better government has been shown over and over again to be totally lacking in validity, as all it produces most of the time is stalemate and gridlock!

Virginia Gubernatorial Race Going Democratic: Great Sign For 2014 And Beyond!

Ronald 5 Comments

The lead of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe, a close friend and fund raiser for the Clintons, over Republican Attorney General and gubernatorial nominee Ken Cuccinelli in Virginia, is a great sign for the future of the Democratic Party.

Cuccinelli is a truly nightmare nominee, with his extremist right wing views, and his decision to invite Ted Cruz and Rand Paul into the state to campaign for him, signs of true desperation on his part, and a sign of why the GOP is losing its hold in Virginia.

Cuccinelli’s Lieutenant Governor nominee, preacher E W Jackson, is even more of a right wing lunatic than Cuccinelli, and it is clear that young people, minorities, college educated people, women, and those who believe in socially moderate views are not willing to tolerate such narrow minded and bigoted nominees as Cuccinelli and Jackson.

It has often been said that how Virginia goes in the odd year elections affects Congressional elections the next year, and that has often rang true.

So the Virginia election results, now seen as a massive victory for the Democrats, is a good sign that the state is turning more blue, particularly because of northern Virginia federal government workers, but also because the Republican Party has been unduly influenced by its Tea Party lunatics in that state, as well as nationally, and has led to the highest rate of disapproval for the GOP nationally in its entire history, 63 percent!

IF Hillary Clinton Chooses Not To Run For President, Elizabeth Warren Goes To The Head Of The Class!

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2016 is clearly a year for a woman candidate to be taken seriously for the White House, and everyone figures that is Hillary Clinton.

But despite indications that she plans to run, as hinted at in campaigning for Virginia gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe , it is clear that the attacks on her would be brutal if she ran, particularly on the overinflated manner of Benghazi, Libya, the tragic loss of the ambassador and three others on September 11, 2012. The fact that Ronald Reagan presided over the loss of 252 Marines in Beirut, Lebanon in 1983, is simply overlooked, while the loss of four people is made out to be the crime of the century, while certainly it is a tragic manner.

It could be said that Hillary has problems with her long career, as any one with her experience would have, but it could be that she will, ultimately, decide that at the age of 69 in 2016, she would rather have a life as a lecturer and author, and a new grandmother by that time.

So IF she chose not to run, it would seem clear the Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has inspired many by her strong stands on consumer affairs and so many other matters, would then decide to run, and would excite the base.

And if not her, further behind are New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, both exceptional women, who might join the race.

It is clear that there will be a female candidate on the Democratic side of the Presidential race, even if Hillary Clinton ultimately bows out of the race for the White House!

Republican Lunacy Is Getting Worse By The Day!

Ronald 6 Comments

All that one needs to do is wait, and the Republican Party harms itself and its reputation!

Examples abound, such as just recently, the following:

Virginia Lieutenant Governor nominee E. W. Jackson, a minister, has stated that one cannot be a Christian and also be a Democrat!

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who looks and acts more like former Wisconsin Senator Joseph McCarthy as each day goes by, makes clear that he wishes, with other Tea Party radicals, to force the federal government into being shut down, until and when ObamaCare is defunded, no matter what damage it does to the American economy and our system of national defense, and payments to the elderly and disabled under Social Security and Medicare!

And Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus has threatened to forbid any Republican Presidential debates to be conducted by NBC and CNN, if they go through with plans, in their entertainment divisions, with specials on the life of Hillary Clinton, failing to see that the news division and the entertainment division are separate, and that neither station will give in to his threats! All it can do is undermine GOP attempts to gain public support, as if these two major networks are not engaged in the political campaign, it is the party that loses, more than the stations!

What is wrong with these Republicans, and many other examples, and that only a small coterie of Republicans, such as John McCain and Chris Christie, seem to have any sanity and common sense?

This portends a civil war for the future of the GOP, which will overshadow the 2016 race, as the Republican Party is self destructing before our eyes, more every day!

Financial And Sexual Scandals Seem More Endemic Than Ever!

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Even for one who loves politics, it is becoming disillusioning how politicians seem unable to control their behavior, whether financial or sexual!

So just now, we see Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell facing the end of his political career, even as he is due to finish the one term limited office in his state, with the possibility of having to resign before the end of the term, facing possible prison time if put on trial for his willingness to accept massive gifts for himself and his family from corporate interests who do business with the state of Virginia, and dreams of being President going by the wayside!

And Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett seems to be facing similar accusations, and probable political destruction, proving once again that Republican officeholders are particularly obsessed with money, never having enough of it, and thinking that they are entitled to favors from their corporate friends!

But then Democrats have problems with sexual scandals, not unique to them, but right now the center of the political realities in San Diego and New York City!

San Diego Democratic Mayor Bob Filner, once a quite outstanding Congressman, hardly in his first term as Mayor, is obviously a male chauvinist, who is unable to control his behavior with women, is under fire to resign, refuses to do so, and instead is undergoing soon a two week course in how to behave, as if a 70 year old man with a major problem, can somehow resolve it almost overnight! To top it off, he is being sued for sexual harassment, and wants his legal fees paid by the city government of San Diego! What gall, and outrageous conduct, and Filner needs to be run out of town on a rail, so to speak!

And the biggest story in New York City is not the problems the city faces, but the inability of former Congressman Anthony Weiner to stop sexting, after having been caught at it two years, forcing him to resign, and claiming he had changed his behavior when he announced for Mayor, and then the discovery that he had continued to sext even recently, in an embarrassing charade for New York CIty, for his wife, and for his own reputation! And yet, he refused to quit the Mayoral race, leaving it to the voters in the primary in six weeks, to determine his fate! This man is eating up all the oxygen in the room, and the thought that he could be Mayor of the nation’s largest city is enough to make the whole concept of the importance of the Mayoralty a total joke! His wife needs to stop defending him, and push him out of the race, or else declare she is leaving him, divorcing him, and condemning him, as anything else only hurts the whole point of a suffering wife making clear she is not going to tolerate such public misbehavior any longer!

And ironically, this Weiner caper is undermining the Bill and Hillary Clinton reputation, reminding voters of the unfortunate willingness of Hillary to tolerate Bill’s sexual misbehavior, supposedly to promote her own political career, but demeaning the concept of what a wife’s reaction to her husband’s misdeeds should be!

Who can say that this Weiner disaster might not affect Hillary Clinton’s supposed status as frontrunner for the Democratic Presidential nomination? Every day this goes on, it is as if it is dripping poison on the image of the Clintons, for those who believe in common decency in their politicians, something we are failing to see much too often at any point, but most notably right now!