Virginia

Early Voting Begins In Half Of The States, BEFORE Presidential Debates!

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Early voting has begun in 25 states, a week BEFORE the Presidential debates begin. And five more states will begin early voting by the end of September.

This includes the “swing” states of Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, so for many voters, it is already too late for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan to change people’s minds, particularly after recent gaffes by the Republican team!

It is expected that one third of all votes will be cast before Election Day, a growing number every Presidential year, and therefore a “wild card” that will affect the election results!

Southern White Evangelical Christians Uncomfortable With Mitt Romney

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Southern white evangelical Christians might be unhappy with President Barack Obama, but as many observers have pointed out earlier, including this blogger, Mitt Romney’s challenge to thrill the above named group is causing unease among them.

The reasons: Romney is just too damn wealthy for people who struggle every day to get by, and his Mormon faith troubles them.

This may all be unfair and unjust, but again, it was predictable that these issues would surface as time went by, and now they have.

It does not mean that Barack Obama will win the South, but he already carried Virginia, North Carolina and Florida in 2008, and is still ahead at this time in both Virginia and Florida, while behind in North Carolina.

The interesting point is that Romney might be able, by default, with his opponent being African American, to carry the rest of the South, but the percentage he would need to give him a chance at the three states that Obama won, is slipping away from him due to these two factors.

And with the growing Hispanic-Latino influence in the South, it is clear that Virginia, North Carolina and Florida will become more “blue” over time, and that Georgia and Texas will eventually turn “blue” in future Presidential elections!

“Swing” States Down To Eight, Narrowing Romney Chances Of Winning Presidency!

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The Mitt Romney Presidential campaign has decided to buy advertising time on television in only eight states, narrowing the chance that the former Massachusetts Governor can win the Presidency.

Eliminated as places of opportunity are Michigan, the birthplace and childhood of Romney, and the state that his father was Governor in the 1960s; Wisconsin, the birthplace and home of his running mate, Paul Ryan; and Pennsylvania, despite the well known white male battleground of western Pennsylvania, often thought to be an Achilles Heel for Barack Obama!

So what are the states still in play?

New Hampshire–4 electoral votes
Virginia–13 electoral votes
North Carolina–15 electoral votes
Florida–29 electoral votes
Ohio–18 electoral votes
Iowa–6 electoral votes
Colorado–9 electoral votes
Nevada–6 electoral votes

The total electoral votes in play are 100, while Obama leads with 247 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney has 191 electoral votes from 23 states. Remember that the winner of the election must have 270 electoral votes.

So, with the updated realities that even Romney’s advertising campaign reflects, Obama wins If

he wins Florida (29 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Virginia (31 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and North Carolina (33 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Iowa or Nevada (24 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Colorado (27 electoral votes)
he wins New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Colorado (24 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Iowa and Nevada (27 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Iowa and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Colorado and New Hampshire (26 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia, Colorado, and either Iowa or Nevada (28 electoral votes)

So these are ELEVEN scenarios where Barack Obama has the advantage–needing only between one and four states of the eight “swing” states to win the Presidency in the Electoral College!

The unemployment rate is lower than the national average in New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio and Iowa, while higher in North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

So if one were to assume that the four states that have the lower unemployment rate than the national average go to Obama, he wins 41 electoral votes, for a grand total of 288 electoral votes.

Of course, there are five states, that are considered “red” or Republican states, that actually are in play, although expected to go to Romney. These are Indiana (11 electoral votes), which went to Obama in 2008; Missouri (10 electoral votes), which was won by John McCain in 2008 by only about 4,000 votes; Montana (3 electoral votes), which is becoming more Democratic; Arizona (11 electoral votes), which is moving toward Democratic over time with the growing Hispanic vote, and the controversial immigration law under Governor Jan Brewer; and Georgia (16 electoral votes), which is gaining a large Hispanic population, which means it will likely trend Democratic over the next few election cycles. Were all of these to go Democratic in a close vote situation, Obama could, theoretically, win 51 more electoral votes!

So, IF Obama were to win all of the eight “swing states” now in play, based on Romney’s decision as to what states to spend money on advertising, he would go from what seems clearly 247 electoral votes to 347 electoral votes–meaning he would have won all of the states he won in 2008, except for Indiana!

This is 18 electoral votes fewer than in 2008, when Obama won 365 electoral votes–due to the theoretical loss of Indiana (11 electoral votes), plus the fact that the states he won lost a total of 7 electoral votes due to reapportionment of seats in Congress, based on the 2010 Census.

But IF Obama were to win the “red” states that could be in play, listed above, a total of five states with 51 electoral votes, his highest theoretical total of electoral votes would reach 398 electoral votes, meaning Romney would win only 140 electoral votes, with Obama winning 32 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney winning 18 states!

The ultimate point of this discussion is to make it clear that the odds of Obama being re-elected are very high, despite the supposedly tight popular vote on a national level, which really proves nothing, as the polls on popular vote in the eight “swing” states demonstrate that Obama is ahead in all of them, except in North Carolina and Colorado, so to bet against Obama would be a losing bet, best thought about before being placed, as the odds of losing large amounts of money is extremely a likely occurrence!

The Republican Party Totally Changed From Its Founding: More Southernized Than Ever Before!

Ronald 1 Comment

The Republican Party started as a party of anti slavery and anti slavery expansion, and became anathema in the South, fighting the Confederacy during the Civil War, and imposing military Reconstruction on the South after the Civil War.

For a century, the South was solidly Democratic in reaction, and the South subjugated African Americans in segregation and discrimination, while the GOP abandoned African Americans after 1877.

In the 1960s, moderate and liberal Republicans supported the passage of the civil rights laws, but southern Democrats started to veer to the Republican Party in reaction to President Lyndon B. Johnson’s advocacy and promotion of civil rights, with Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina leading the march to the GOP.

Richard Nixon pursued a Southern strategy, and after Ronald Reagan became President, the trend to “Southernization” continued, and now it has reached full development, even though we have two Northerners–Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Paul Ryan of Wisconsin–on the Presidential ticket.

The Republican Party of 2012, based on its platform and its rhetoric, has hostility toward minorities, promotion of racism against Barack Obama, hatred of national government, belief in exploitation of low wage workers, and promotes religion over science, all reflective of the backward traditions of the Old South, which remains the poorest part of the nation economically, and yet is willing to support the Republican Party out of fear of change and modernization.

But, ironically, this is the last gasp of this trend, as the country is changing to a multi ethnic society, and the white population that is so anti change is rapidly becoming a smaller portion of the nation, and will be so, in a very obvious way, by the time of the Census of 2020 and after, when the Hispanic and Latino population of Texas and Arizona and Florida will likely turn those states “blue”,. from their momentary “red” status.

So the Republican Party is in the death throes of its Southernization, as even Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia are being changed demographically, rapidly before our eyes!

Growing Possibility Of Libertarian Gary Johnson Having Impact On Presidential Election Of 2012

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Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s Presidential candidate, is showing some strength in polls that indicates he could be the “spoiler” in the 2012 Presidential Election, similar to what Ralph Nader was in the Presidential Election of 2000.

The effect, if Johnson gained a few percent of the vote in “battleground” or “swing” states, would be most likely to hurt Mitt Romney, the Republican Presidential nominee, rather than Democrat Barack Obama, since it seems more likely that libertarian support would come from elements in the GOP.

So the thought is that Johnson could affect the vote in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada, and help, indirectly, President Obama to win those states, although right now, Obama has the edge in Virginia, Florida, and Nevada, and is slightly ahead in Colorado, while behind in North Carolina.

If Johnson can win 3-5 percent of the vote, he could go down in history as notable enough to be recorded as having affected the election, just as Ralph Nader in 2000.

Medicare Will Decide The Election: IF Obama Wins Florida AND New Hampshire Of “Battleground” States, He Wins The Presidency!

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Chuck Todd of NBC’s Meet The Press just demonstrated how close Barack Obama is to a victory for the White House.

Showing an electoral vote map with 237 electoral votes in Obama’s camp and 191 in Mitt Romney’s camp, Todd demonstrates that there are NINE true “battleground” or “swing” states, and if Obama wins Florida and New Hampshire, he has the second term he wants in the White House! And the issue of Medicare, brought to central focus by Paul Ryan and his budget plans on that program, will be the center of the victory of Obama for the Presidency!

Even if Romney wins the other seven contestable states—Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada—he would lose the Electoral College 270-268, due to Florida’s 29 electoral votes and New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes!

But, to assume that Obama would really lose all seven of those states is also delusional, as it is certain that he will win some, and probably, most of them!

This author has been saying this for a long time, and has found some readers of this blog, conservative and Republican friends and associates, and people on Fox News Channel and talk radio, act as if only the public opinion polls, which often show a close race in many states and nationally, should be paid attention to, but that is NOT the case!

The election is decided by the Electoral College, NOT the popular vote nationally,and do not forget that George W. Bush LOST the popular vote in 2000, but was declared the winner of the Electoral College! The same happened to Benjamin Harrison, Rutherford Hayes, and John Quincy Adams in the past!

But to conclude that, somehow, Barack Obama will lose the national popular vote, with the Republican alienation of Hispanics-Latinos, African Americans, women, young voters, the middle class, senior citizens, gays and lesbians, the poor, labor, educators, consumer advocates, environmentalists, and secular voters—in each case, the majority, not all of any group, of course—indicates that those believing what they do are indeed delusional, and cannot be helped by ordinary medical intervention!

Latest Poll Averages Show Obama Ahead Of Romney In Eleven Of Twelve Battleground States!

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Barack Obama may be only slightly ahead of Mitt Romney nationally in the average of various polls–47.3 percent to 44.7 percent, but when one looks at twelve battleground or swing states, he is ahead of Romney in all but North Carolina, where he trails Romney by 48.5 to 46.5, two percentage points.

Obama is ahead by almost 6 points in Ohio; by 2.5 points in Virginia; by 3 points in Florida; by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania; by almost 4 points in Iowa; by 5.5 points in Nevada; by 5 points in Wisconsin; by 7 points in New Mexico; by 6.5 points in Michigan; and by almost 3 points in New Hampshire. In Colorado, the margin is only two tenths of one point for Obama over Romney, nearly an even split.

So Obama is ahead in 10 of the 12 states listed, all of which he won in 2008, nearly even in Colorado, and only behind in North Carolina!

Not bad considering the blistering attacks and lies and deception that have been going on for three and a half years as President, greater than any President since the last one who was called every name in the book, and yet won a landslide victory in 1936 in the midst of the Great Depression, with unemployment levels still much higher than they are in 2012.

The author is referring here to Franklin D. Roosevelt!

The Founding Fathers And Religious Intolerance

Ronald 4 Comments

Having spent the past few days touring Presidential homes of the Founding Fathers in Virginia, it becomes ever more clear how they viewed organized religion.

All of the great Founding Fathers were born of the Christian faith, one sect or another, but all were skeptical of organized religion, being very educated and learned about the history of Christianity, which had included mass murder, bloodshed, violence, and holy wars against Islam, and promotion of antisemitism against Jews.

So George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe all were not regular church goers, and in many respects were Deists, having given up on organized religious trappings.

The Adamses, John and John Quincy, also had similar views, as did Benjamin Franklin and Alexander Hamilton.

If they had been here in today’s world, witnessing the bias, prejudice, and hate promoted by SOME Christian groups in the name of Jesus, they would be totally disgusted for sure!

Liz Cheney Glorifies Sarah Palin As More Qualified Than Barack Obama AND Joe Biden Combined! Is Liz Cheney For Real?

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Liz Cheney, the conservative activist daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, has been trying to make a name for herself on Fox News Channel, and in assisting her father in the writing of his memoirs.

She wants us to take her seriously, but it is very hard to do so after her defense of Sarah Palin, the Vice Presidential nominee selected by John McCain in 2008.

Her dad had the intelligence to admit that Sarah Palin was not qualified to be President in 2008, but she contradicted him, and made the amazing statement that Palin was better qualified for the Oval Office than Barack Obama AND Joe Biden combined!

That is a totally moronic, asinine, ridiculous statement! Biden had 36 years in the US Senate, and was one of its best members in its entire history, and made Palin look terrible in the Vice Presidential debate in 2008. And Barack Obama had a lot more experience in office, and an obviously superior intelligence and brilliance that Sarah Palin does not possess!

Of course, John McCain came to Sarah Palin’s defense, but he has to, in order to legitimize his terrible choice in 2008!

But for Liz Cheney to make such a statement makes one wonder about her own intelligence and qualifications, as she plans to run for the US Senate in Wyoming or Virginia in the future.

But her major qualification is being an “adviser” to her dad! Is that enough to make her qualified to be a Senator? The author will leave that issue to the reader to decide!

Republican Governors Rave About Improved Economy, But Mitt Romney Wants Them NOT To Claim So!

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An interesting development as we see Republican Governors raving about their improved economies, but causing grief for Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney in doing so!

Florida Governor Rick Scott, Michigan Governor Rick Snyder, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and Ohio Governor John Kasich all have been boasting about their states’ economies vastly improving.

The fact that all of these states except Florida have an unemployment rate BELOW the national average is a PLUS for President Barack Obama, although, of course, these GOP Governors will not give him any credit!

But by them pointing out their improved economies, it hurts the cause of Mitt Romney, who is trying to make a campaign simply on the economy, ignoring everything else, such as foreign policy, the future of the Supreme Court, and many social issues.

Romney seems to think that he will be able to focus on what he wants only, but that will certainly not be the case as the Obama campaign zeroes in on other issues, and as the three Presidential debates and one Vice Presidential debate arrive on the scene in September and October!