Virginia

Are Virginia, North Carolina And Colorado The Ultimate Deciders Of The Presidential Election Of 2012?

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A new study comes up with the conclusion that the ultimate swing states for the Presidential Election Of 2012 are Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado.

These states have in common the following: growing numbers of well educated, high income voters with technology expertise in significant technology hubs; plus large increases in Hispanic and Latino population; and large components of women who are also more educated and professional and will not tolerate the attack on women that the Republican Party is engaged in nationally, in many states, and on conservative talk radio.

These states all voted for George W. Bush in 2004, but switched to Barack Obama in 2008, and the trend toward the Democrats, including also Independent voters, seems hard to reverse by the Republican Party and its candidate for President, whoever that will be!

The Immolation Of Marco Rubio And Bob McDonnell For Vice President!

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Two so called “front runners” for the Vice Presidential nomination on the Republican ticket with Mitt Romney have proceeded to immolate themselves in the past two weeks.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio became the co-sponsor of the Blunt Amendment, which would have allowed any employer on ethical or religious grounds to refuse to cover any medical procedure that he did not agree with on a health insurance plan. It was defeated by the Democratic majority, joined by outgoing Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine, who saw this legislation as the “last straw”, and decided to retire from the Senate in frustration at the total stalemate and gridlock that the Senate has become. By Rubio being so active in promotion of this outrageous amendment, it effectively kills him off as a potential GOP running mate, unless Mitt Romney proves to be totally crazy!

Meanwhile, Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia finally backed off on proposed legislation in his state that would have required any woman who wanted to undergo an abortion to have an invasive ultrasound vaginal probe exam, with the bill changed only to take away the invasive aspect of the legislation. This crazy idea makes Virginia look as if it is back in the Dark Ages, and destroys any semblance of McDonnell being a good running mate for Romney, unless again Romney goes totally insane!

It could be that both Rubio and McDonnell perceive that Romney cannot win the election, and that therefore, they would not want to associate themselves with his campaign, but if that is really believed, it gives both of them much more credit for their intelligence and foresight than they deserve!

Super Tuesday: The Significance Of Ohio For Republicans, And Particularly For Mitt Romney!

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Next Tuesday, ten states will be voting in GOP primaries and caucuses, the most of any day in this Presidential campaign.

The state that will matter the most of those ten states is the Buckeye State, Ohio, a state with more delegates and more electoral votes than any of the other nine, and also a Midwestern state which has suffered a great deal from the Great Recession and its aftermath, and has benefited from the survival and success of General Motors and Chrysler promoted by President Barack Obama.

It is also a state which has given us more Presidents than any state except Virginia. And it is a state which EVERY Republican President has won, and every failed Republican nominee has lost.

To put it succinctly, Ohio is a MUST state for a Republican Presidential candidate, and yet it looks very possible that Mitt Romney, despite his narrow victory in his home state of Michigan, might lose this state to Rick Santorum.

If Mitt Romney, presumed to be the front runner and likely Republican choice for President, cannot win Ohio, then how can one expect that he can win it in November against Barack Obama?

So if he loses Ohio, and going by the history of the Republican Party, he loses Ohio in November, then Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential election, and is, therefore, a flawed candidate.

Of course, there is always the chance that for the first time ever for a Republican nominee, Mitt Romney could lose Ohio and win the Presidency, but again, this has NEVER happened from Abraham Lincoln through George W. Bush, and one cannot expect such a quirk would occur.

A Forecast Of The Future? Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley Vs. Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell

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Yesterday, the political website POLITICO sponsored a debate between Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley and Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell over the controversial social issues that have come to the forefront in the past few weeks.

Martin O’Malley came to the strong defense of President Barack Obama, and hailed the successes of the administration, while being critical of the Republicans, led by Virginia’s Governor Bob McDonnell, who became embroiled in a controversy over an invasive vaginal ultra sound bill to undermine abortions by women.

O’Malley at the same time defended the decision in Maryland to make that state the eighth state to legalize gay marriages.

Bob McDonnell was on the defensive, as he explained his change of heart on the invasive ultra sound bill, after much outrage by women and the news media and others who believe in the right of privacy and women’s rights.

As one watched this debate, one could imagine the scenario of a possible 2016 Presidential debate between the two men, governors of neighboring states, with totally opposite views, and both strong defenders of their viewpoints.

Martin O’Malley is already seen as a top tier Presidential candidate for 2016 in the Democratic Party, and Bob McDonnell has obvious ambitions on the Republican side, and has made it clear that he is interested in a Vice Presidential slot with Mitt Romney, if Romney were to choose him. That is the obvious, although denied, reason for his backing off on the invasive ultra sound bill that he seemed ready to sign.

O’Malley has showed evidence that he would be a hard, aggressive campaigner if he ran for President, as he has become one of the major defenders of President Obama’s record, and a critic of the governors of not only Virginia, but also Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida, all hard line conservatives, who he accuses correctly of presiding over very poor employment growth, while Obama, by intervening in Michigan and other Midwestern states, has promoted a revival of the auto industry and the general economy, along with the general progress in decline of the unemployment rate.

Not only is Martin O’Malley demonstrating that a Catholic can have an open mind on issues such as abortion and gay marriage and labor rights, but also Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York, is showing the same on these issues, and both are certainly to be considered front runners for the Presidential nomination in 2016.

Not all Catholic politicians allow their faith to dominate their politics, although Rick Santorum, particularly, and convert Newt Gingrich, both seem to feel that their religious views should be dictated to the population at large, even though we were founded as a nation on the concept of separation of church and state, which John F. Kennedy so clearly enunciated as the first Catholic President of the United States!

Maryland And Virginia: Two Different Worlds Politically, From Different “Planets”!

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There seems to be no comparison of two geographically neighboring states quite on the level of Maryland and Virginia, two diametrically opposite governments, seemingly from different “planets”.

Maryland, one of the most prosperous states, has a Democratic dominated state government and Congressional delegation, and has a Governor, Martin O’Malley, who comes across as a national leader of the future. Maryland has become the eighth state to legalize gay marriage. It has dealt with the issue of the Great Recession and its aftermath in a socially responsible way, and is seen as a model of progressive viewpoint and outlook.

Virginia, on the other hand, while it has the Northern Virginia suburbs, which are more progressive, has an extremely conservative and Republican state government under the leadership of Bob McDonnell and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who makes McDonnell look moderate, not an easy task!

Virginia was moving toward requiring vaginal exams of any woman who wanted to get an abortion. The ultrasound law would have allowed the state to invade women’s bodies in the name of fanatical religious zealots who wanted to stop all abortions, even though it is allowed by Supreme Court decisions. But McDonnell, seen as on the short list for Vice Presidential nomination, came to the conclusion yesterday that such a law would harm his chances of moving ahead politically, as the Virginia Governorship limit is one term. So he suddenly backed off from a pledge to sign such an invasive, insulting bill as this one.

The likelihood of Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, an extreme right winger, succeeding McDonnell in November 2013, as Virginia Governor, is a horrifying thought to many, particularly women and gays, as Cuccinelli is a hardliner on the social issues that are dominating the GOP race for President right now!

So a world of difference exists between Maryland and Virginia, an amazing manifestation considering their being in the same “neighborhood”!

Virginia: A “Swing” State, Or Democratic In 2012 Presidential Election?

Ronald 1 Comment

Virginia is typically considered a Southern state, but as Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia terms it, it has become more like a Mid Atlantic state.

The reasons for this include:

1. Northern Virginia has become a substantial part of the population of the state, tends to be more liberal than the rest of the state, and many of the people living in Northern Virginia work for the federal government, are more educated, and tend to vote Democratic.

2. The minority population of the Virginia, of all ethnic groups, has gone up from 20 percent to 30 percent of the state, so if a large percentage of them vote, it is bound to benefit Barack Obama.

3. Virginia voted for Obama in 2008 by about six percent margin, and if the economy continues to improve, it is unlikely that the state will vote against Obama, when one considers the above two factors.

So the likelihood at this point is that the “swing state” of Virginia will stay in the Democratic column this fall, even though the state government is controlled by the Republicans. Presidential elections and state elections do not always synchronize in many states across the nation.

Obama Strategies To Win Reelection In 2012: Alternative Routes To Victory

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Barack Obama seems extremely likely to win the entire Northeast from Maine to Maryland and Washington, DC in 2012, with possibly New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as exceptions. So that would be 112 electoral votes, or without Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, 88 electoral votes.

He is expected also to win the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon and Washington as well, which would mean 74 electoral votes.

In the Midwest, Illinois is a certainty, and the upper Midwest seems strongly Democratic too, including Michigan, WIsconsin, and Minnesota, which means these four states are together a total of 56 electoral votes.

So far, that adds up to 218 electoral votes, without New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and with them, it is 242, 28 short of the number needed, 270 electoral votes, to win the Presidency.

So what is needed to guarantee an Obama victory?

1, The state of Florida with 29 electoral votes would put Obama over the top with all of the above states, and add Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, all with growing Hispanic and Latino populations, and supportive of Obama the last time, and you get 26 electoral votes, to replace a possible loss of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

2. Another scenario is to win Ohio and Missouri, the two states most representative of the winning Presidential candidates, with Ohio being with the GOP nominee every time he has won in US History, and Missouri wrong only twice on the Presidential winner since 1900–1956 and 2008–with their combined 28 replacing Florida or Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

3. Another strategy is to try to win in Georgia and Arizona, along with Missouri, three states won by John McCain in 2008, but all susceptible to moving to Obama with growing Hispanic and Latino populations. This way one gains 37 electoral votes, replacing either Florida OR Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

4. Also, if Obama wins Virginia and North Carolina, he wins 28 electoral votes and does not need Florida, OR Ohio and Missouri, OR Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado!

The point is that Obama has many scenarios to win, and it is very hard to imagine that all of the above combinations of states will go to a Republican party as right wing and divided as it now is, demonstrated even more by the debacle over the middle class tax cut continuation, leading to a split between Republicans in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

So Obama supporters need to work hard, but the future looks bright!

The Virginia Presidential Primary: Romney Vs Paul, With No One Else On Ballot!

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A weird development has set up the Virginia Presidential primary of March 6 to be a potential major factor in the GOP Presidential race.

Virginia is a “swing state” with a Republican state government stronger than ever before; with a Governor, Bob McDonnell, who is a potential Vice Presidential nominee; with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, thought to be supportive of the Tea Party struggles against Speaker of the House John Boehner; and a state with northern Virginia very liberal and the rest of the state more traditional Old South. It is a state that Barack Obama won, and is a crucial state for him to win in 2012.

Considering the significance of Virginia, one would think all seven GOP candidates for President would be on the ballot, but instead only TWO are to be listed–Mitt Romney, the candidate of “Establishment” Republicans; and Ron Paul, the libertarian and Tea Party, small government, and cutting back on interventions overseas, candidate!

Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry failed to gain enough ballot signatures, and Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and Jon Huntsman chose not to compete at all in the state.

So, assuming the nomination has NOT been won already, which seems a highly likely scenario, this could be the ultimate battle in many ways of Nelson Rockefeller vs Barry Goldwater, modified of course, but definitely a battle for the soul of the Republican Party in 2012!

The Two Sides Of DC: The Vastly DIfferent Worlds Of Maryland And Virginia!

Ronald 1 Comment

The District of Columbia is surrounded by Maryland and Virginia, and the differences between these two states are vast!

Back in the Civil War period, Maryland remained loyal to the Union, although having slavery and secessionists, while Virginia, with vastly more slaves and more rebels, became the leader of the Confederacy, and had the Confederate capitol at Richmond.

Now, Maryland is one of the most loyal Democratic states, very liberal and progressive, and has Governor Martin O’Malley, who is seen by many as an early favorite competitor for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2016. The legislature is heavily Democratic as well.

Meanwhile, Virginia has a possible future competitor for President in 2016 in Governor Bob McDonnell, who also may be a possible Vice Presidential nominee for Mitt Romney, if he is the GOP Presidential candidate in 2012. Also, the state legislature is heavily Republican, and now after yesterday’s election, that party will control both houses of the state legislature for only the second time in a century. Social conservatives will wish to promote their agenda as a result, although the northern part of Virginia tends to be very liberal as a bedroom community for the national capital’s work force.

Could two states be more different? That is hard to imagine, and yet it could be, in theory, that O’Malley and McDonnell could be competing against each other’s philosophies and visions and agenda in the Presidential Election of 2016!

Early Speculation On The Vice Presidency: Marco Rubio And Bob McDonnell

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As the battle for the Republican Presidential nomination heats up, speculation is beginning as to who the nominee’s running mate might be, and most of the attention is focusing on two Southerners, one in the US Senate, and one who is Governor.

Many are saying that newly elected Senator Marco Rubio of Florida is the front runner, with his good looks, his youth (40), Tea Party support, Hispanic heritage (Cuban), his speaking ability, and his representing the fourth largest state in population and electoral votes. Rubio, although only in the Senate for seven and a half months, had a distinguished career in the Florida House of Representatives, including being its Speaker, and knows how to raise money, and to appeal to Hispanic voters, a key voting bloc in Florida and elsewhere.

At the same time, Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia appeals to many as a conservative who avoids controversy and direct connection to the Tea Party Movement, but saying and doing the right things to avoid antagonizing them or conservatives in general, and no one doubts his conservative credentials. He is handsome, well spoken, and represents a swing state, much like Florida, which is crucial to the Republican Party’s chances to win in 2012. McDonnell is also the present Chair of the Republican Governors Association, and is term limited to one term by Virginia state law, to the end of 2013, so would certainly be looking for a role beyond then, and the Vice Presidency would be very enticing!

Both Florida and Virginia went to Barack Obama in 2008, making both of them battlegrounds in 2012. So the odds seem good that either Rubio or McDonnell are the most likely VP nominees for whoever is the GOP nominee for President in 2012.