Virginia

The Myth That The Election Victory Of Hillary Clinton Is Narrowing: The Misunderstanding Of The Electoral College As Against Polls

Ronald 11 Comments

It is amazing to this author and blogger that so many Americans seem to think that the election victory of Hillary Clinton is narrowing, according to some public opinion polls.

There is a failure to understand that news media have an investment in building up that there is a real battle between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, when there is absolutely no realistic chance for Donald Trump to overcome the deficits that he has created for himself over the past 15 months.

The point to be made is that it is the Electoral College and 270 electoral votes that elects our President, and in fact, as George W. Bush reminded us, a candidate can actually lose the national popular vote and still be elected President, as happened in 2000, and also in 1824, 1876, and 1888.

There are 18 “Blue” states and the District of Columbia, which have voted Democratic from 1992 on, and are not about to change. But even if Pennsylvania and Wisconsin somehow surprised us, which is not going to happen in the real world, Hillary Clinton is presently ahead in all of the “Swing” states that Barack Obama won, plus she is even or slightly ahead in a number of “Red” states.

If she wins the likely 242 from the 18 states and DC, all Hillary needs is Florida OR Ohio and Virginia OR a combination of other “Swing” or “Red” states, the latter including, possibly North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Utah, Montana, South Carolina, and even in new polls the states of Texas and Mississippi, and even possibly one vote in Nebraska in the Omaha area, since Nebraska, along with Maine, allows splitting of electoral votes.

To believe that Hillary will somehow lose is totally preposterous, while it can be said that IF the Republican Party had nominated John Kasich, or even possibly, Jeb Bush, all bets would have been off.

And while Gary Johnson will have some effect in some states, the Libertarian nominee is not going to be the spoiler he thought he would be.

And the Green Party and Jill Stein—just forget it, not worth one’s time and attention!

Grand Opening Of Democratic Campaign As Tim Kaine Is A Rock Star In Introduction To The American People In Miami Rally!

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Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, presented himself to the nation yesterday at a political rally in Miami, Florida, with Hillary Clinton, at Florida International University, a heavily Latino school.

Many observers had said that Kaine was a “boring” personality, but he was anything but that. He was a “Rock Star”!

The TV audience and the crowd learned just how dynamic, caring, committed, and principled Tim Kaine is, apparently a secret just unveiled, as he was not well known nationally.

Tim Kaine is a wonderful human being with compassion and concern for social justice, just the opposite of Republican Vice Presidential nominee, Indiana Governor Mike Pence, who has demonstrated an extremist right wing Tea Party view on so many different issues.

The future debate between Kaine and Pence will be very revealing, and will help Hillary Clinton win the Presidency.

And we will be blessed in January with a great successor in the Vice Presidency to follow Joe Biden, who must be recruited for some important position, as we should not lose his talents and expertise.

A good suggestion is to make Biden Secretary of State or Attorney General, both areas of his expertise and knowledge, not only as Vice President for eight years, but also his years as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Senate Judiciary Committee.

The Democrats have, once again, blessed us with outstanding Vice Presidents—Walter Mondale under Jimmy Carter, Al Gore under Bill Clinton, and Joe Biden under Barack Obama, and now they offer us the talents and great judgment and humanity of Tim Kaine.

Virginia Senator Tim Kaine A Great Choice For Vice President, And Possible Succession If Need Arises!

Ronald 11 Comments

Hillary Clinton has made a great choice for Vice President, in selecting Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her partner to run the executive branch for the next four to eight years.

Tim Kaine comes from a crucial swing state, and would be the third Virginia leader to be Vice President, after Thomas Jefferson and John Tyler, who both became President. He is also the first Virginian to be on the Presidential election ballot, since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916, not a native Virginian, however, as Governor of New Jersey.

Kaine would be the second Catholic Vice President after Joe Biden, with John F. Kennedy the only Catholic President.

Kaine is a steady, stable, pleasant, well liked political leader who has proved by his experience and interaction with other government leaders that he is well qualified to be President, if the emergency arises. He is also, like Joe Biden, well liked personally by Republicans in the Senate and House of Representatives who have dealt with him.

Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine are very comfortable together, and Kaine has a tolerant and mild temperament that engenders confidence.

Kaine has served as Richmond Mayor, Lieutenant Governor, Governor, Senator, and chairman of the Democratic National Committee, and his resume is very diverse and broad.

Kaine has served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Senate Armed Services Committee, crucial committees and experiences in an age of terrorism.

Kaine has the great advantage that he speaks fluent Spanish, a big plus for the Latino community, which is now one out of every six Americans.

If Kaine is elected, his replacement is appointed by Virginia’s Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe, which would not be true had Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, or New Jersey Senator Cory Booker been selected.

Kaine was already on the short list for Vice President with Barack Obama in 2008, a sign that he is well regarded in Democratic circles.

Kaine went to the University of Missouri, Columbia as an undergraduate, and to Harvard Law School, so has excellent academic credentials.

Kaine’s Catholicism and Spanish language ability will help him in states including North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada, and his working class roots will help in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Tim Kaine can be criticized on the issue of free trade, and on supporting the Iran deal, but it will not have that much of an effect on the election, as this blogger sees it. He is certainly not “perfect”, but then no one is.

This blogger was correct when he said that Kaine was the front runner for Vice President, and that the history of the Democratic Party nominees for President choosing a US Senator for Vice President would be continued, all but 1972 and 1984.

This nomination also shows once again that Southerners are favored for Vice President now 9 times since 1944 onward in the Democratic Party, even though Tim Kaine is very different than most earlier Southern nominees for Vice President, much more progressive. Also, Southerners have been on the Presidential ticket at either end of the Democratic ballot in all elections since 1944, except 1968, 1972, 1984, 2008, and 2012, a total of 14 out of 19 times.

Tim Kaine will be an asset to Hillary Clinton, both during the campaign, and as an active Vice President in the mold of Walter Mondale, Al Gore, and Joe Biden!

The Reality Of Terrorism Worldwide Requires A President With Knowledge And Experience, NOT Slogans And Braggadocio!

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The reality of terrorism worldwide presents a massive challenge to the next President of the United States, as it did to George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

We cannot afford to have an ignoramus, or a mercurial personality, to sit in the White House, such as Donald Trump.

We need a person of vast experience and knowledge, and a cool, measured handling of stress, and Hillary Clinton demonstrated that as Barack Obama’s first term Secretary of State from 2009-2013.

And Hillary Clinton needs a Vice President who has demonstrated similar traits, and the more one looks at the various Vice Presidential possibilities for Hillary, the more Virginia Senator Tim Kaine looks in many ways as the best choice.

He serves on the Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committee, and has had vast government experience as Richmond Mayor, Governor of Virginia, and now Senator from Virginia.

While he is not exciting or dynamic, he has a cool, balanced personality, and were an emergency to arise, Tim Kaine could certainly fill the shoes of the Presidency.

This is not to downgrade Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro, Tom Perez, Cory Booker, Al Franken, Amy Klobuchar, Sherrod Brown, and Tom Vilsack, among others.

But on further reflection, it just might be wise for Hillary to select Tim Kaine!

After So Much Vice Presidential Speculation, New Names Show Up!

Ronald 5 Comments

Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are busy keeping us guessing as to who will be their Vice Presidential choices.

After so much speculation, it turns out, according to latest hints, that others not originally considered likely choices, are surging ahead.

So for the Republicans, Indiana Governor and former Congressman Mike Pence seems like the front runner, with Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions also becoming part of the discussion.

And for the Democrats, suddenly, Secretary of Agriculture and former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack seems like a possible choice, with Secretary of Labor Tom Perez of Maryland and Virginia Senator, former Governor, and former Mayor of Richmond Tim Kaine as other possible choices.

Compared to bigger names, such as Newt Gingrich or Chris Christie on the Republican side, or Elizabeth Warren or Julian Castro on the Democratic side, these potential choices seem less exciting and dramatic, but that does not mean that there is not an argument for them.

Pence is less controversial than other VP choices for the Republicans, although he signed a bill against the civil rights of gays and lesbians in public accommodations that had to be changed under protest, and with many businesses canceling plans to expand into Indiana, and with him concerned about a gubernatorial race that looks very difficult to win. He is a hard right wing conservative Republican who the Christian right loves, which makes him unable to expand the base of the Republican Party. But Pence does not have a big mouth, and is not considered a bully, as Gingrich and Christie are.

Sessions is the typical Southern conservative very similar to past Southern Democrats up to the 1960s, very hard line on immigration, but the first US Senator to endorse Trump. He is not appealing personally as Pence is.

Tom Vilsack was actually considered on the short list for VP for John Kerry in 2004 and for Hillary Clinton, had she won the nomination of the Democrats in 2008, and is a pleasant enough fellow, and is from a “swing” state.

Tom Perez is Hispanic, Dominican heritage, and also very well liked by Hillary Clinton, and a very effective Secretary of Labor for Barack Obama.

Both Vilsack and Perez as cabinet members do not endanger any Senate seats, which is a plus for both of them.

Kaine was on the short list for VP in 2008, and is well liked, and has been Mayor of Richmond, as well as Governor and Senator, and also Democratic National Chairman, and also well liked by Hillary Clinton. Fortunately, with a Democratic governor in Virginia, an appointment to replace him would be a Democrat. And to top it off, Kaine speaks perfect Spanish, as this blogger has seen on the news reports, a very impressive plus, considering that 55 million Americans, out of 320 million speak or are od Spanish origin.

Trying to guess the ultimate choices for Vice President has become more complex and difficult, so we shall have to wait and see, but it will be interesting to witness what transpires!

The “Short List” Of Vice Presidential Choices For Hillary Clinton

Ronald 13 Comments

According to the Associated Press, the “short list” of Vice Presidential choices for Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton includes:

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren

Virginia Senator Tim Kaine

Housing and Urban Development Secretary and former San Antonio, Texas Mayor Julian Castro

All three are excellent choices, but this blogger would recommend Castro as the best choice.

It is important to keep Democrats in the US Senate, as even one seat might matter for a majority.

Castro is only 42, which is wonderful, since he represents a new generation of leadership in the future, and is a Latino of Mexican heritage, the future of America, with 65 percent of all Hispanics in America being of Mexican heritage.

The likelihood of a Latino President in eight years, possibly Castro at age 50, is a great possibility.

Castro may not have direct foreign policy experience, but then neither does Warren, and while Kaine is on the Foreign Relations Committee and speaks Spanish, and is 58, a good age for a Vice President with a President eleven years older, and is an excellent choice, Castro is the best overall fit at this time. He gives the Democrats a chance to make Texas competitive, and move that state toward becoming “Blue” by 2024, when Castro could be the successor to run for President.

Once Texas turns “Blue”, the Electoral College is insured for the Democrats for the long term future!

British Betting Odds On Democratic Vice Presidential Nominees

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If one goes by British betting odds, the list of potential Democratic Vice Presidential nominees is as follows:

In front is Julian Castro, former San Antonio Mayor, who is presently Secretary of Housing and Urban Development; followed by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren; Virginia Senator Tim Kaine; Secretary of Labor Tom Perez (from Maryland); and former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley (who was in the Democratic Presidential race).

After those five, the odds on others, in their order, are New Jersey Senator Cory Booker; Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown; and then Minnesota Senators Al Franken and Amy Klobuchar.

Looking at the list, the “safest” choices to make are Castro, Perez, O’Malley, Franken, and Klobuchar, as the first two are cabinet members and not potentially giving up a Senate seat; O’Malley is out of office; and Franken and Klobucar come from a solidly “blue” state that has a Democratic Governor able to appoint a Democratic replacement were either to be elected Vice President.

Warren and Booker come from states with Republican Governors, who would be able to appoint a Republican temporarily as their replacement, while Kaine and Brown comes from “swing states” with a Republican governor in Ohio, and a Democratic Governor in Virginia now under federal investigation in a state which would be Republican if not for northern Virginia’s strong Democratic bent.

The Growing Significance Of Minnesota In The Vice Presidential Sweepstakes For The Democrats!

Ronald 1 Comment

Minnesota is a strongly Democratic state, with a Democratic Governor, Mark Dayton, who has been very successful in promoting economic growth in the state.

It also has two Democratic Senators, Al Franken and Amy Klobuchar, both supremely qualified to be Vice President.

It was also the state of Vice President and Presidential nominee Hubert Humphrey in 1968, and Vice President and Presidential nominee Walter Mondale in 1984.

It was also the state of Senator Eugene McCarthy and Senator Paul Wellstone.

Hillary Clinton has to consider both Franken and Klobuchar, as it is assured that either one in the Vice Presidency would be replaced by a Democrat, not assured in other states, including New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia.

Franken would be a great “attack dog” against Republican Donald Trump, and would be the first Jewish Vice President if Hillary Clinton won the White House.

Klobuchar would be the first woman Vice President, and far superior to Geraldine Ferraro and Sarah Palin in qualifications and experience.

Either Franken or Klobuchar would be a worthy successor to Joe Biden to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency!

Potential White Male Vice Presidential Nominees For Hillary Clinton’s Presidential Campaign In 2016

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If Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton decides not to go “radical” and select a woman or a person of minority heritage as her Vice Presidential choice for the upcoming Presidential Election of 2016, she has a long list of potential white males to choose from.

She could go for a Senator from a “swing” state, including the following:

Virginia–Senator Mark Warner or Senator Tim Kaine

Ohio–Senator Sherrod Brown (who I projected on December 31 as the likely choice)

Florida–Senator Bill Nelson

But there are other potential nominees, including:

Incumbent Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, which I recommended on this blog in February 2015, and was interviewed about it by John Hockenberry of THE TAKEAWAY on National Public Radio on January 21 of this year, which can be found under “Interviews” on the right side of the blog

Senator Al Franken of Minnesota

Former Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut

Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon

Of these nine potential candidates, the most likely would seem to be Brown, Kaine, and Franken in that order.

Biden and Nelson will both be 74 this year, five years older than Hillary Clinton, while O’Malley opposed Hillary in the early primaries and Merkley is the only US Senator to have endorsed Bernie Sanders, making them less likely.

Warner seems less likely than Kaine from Virginia, due to his close race for reelection in 2014, one he almost lost, and Murphy, one of the brightest young liberals, is more of a “dark horse”, not mentioned by many, but a possible surprise choice.

Marco Rubio: A Shooting Star That Has Burned Out!

Ronald 5 Comments

Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s political career is over, as he not only lost his state in the Republican Presidential primary to Donald Trump by nearly 20 points, but also lost all 67 Florida counties, except for his home base of Miami Dade County!

What a complete collapse, and Rubio gave up his chance for reelection, mindful that he had said he was not happy in the Senate, an amazing statement as many, including this blogger, would love to be a member of the Senate, a very exclusive club!

Rubio is like a shooting star who has burned out short of age 45, and now he says he will not run for Governor in 2018 or for the Senate again, and certainly not for the US House of Representatives!

We have seen the last of Marco Rubio on the political scene, as how can one crash so badly and survive politically?

Of course, no one should feel sad for Rubio, who was way beyond his own level in the Senate, and although handsome and charismatic, never came across as terribly principled or even bright in a political sense!

But be assured, Marco, who is from a struggling family background, will do well financially in the corporate world, due to his time in the national spotlight.

So just like Eric Cantor of Virginia, who is doing very well on Wall Street after his defeat for House seat nomination in 2014, Marco will become wealthy and can make speeches for large amounts of money, so do not feel bad for him.

Rubio will never be President, but he had some fleeting fame, and will have a much more lucrative career than he ever would have had, had he not lost his quest for the Presidency!