Virginia

Imagine A Presidential Election Battle Without Any Previous Candidates In The Race!

Ronald Leave a comment

The thought has crossed this blogger’s mind what it would be like if for once, just once, no one who had previously competed for the Presidential nomination of either party, nor had been a Vice Presidential running mate, became involved in the upcoming Presidential Election campaign of 2016.

Think of who would be eliminated from consideration:

Democrats (8)–Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Jerry Brown, John Kerry, Howard Dean, Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich

Republicans (11)–Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, John Kasich

Who would be left to compete?

Democrats (13)–Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kirsten Gillibrand, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley, Mark Warner, Corey Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Jay Nixon, John Hickenlooper, Brian Schweitzer, Deval Patrick, Rahm Emanuel

Republicans (13)–Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Peter King, Mike Pence, Rob Portman, Scott Walker, Brian Sandoval, Susana Martinez, Nikki Haley

One can wonder who would be competitive for the Presidential nominations, and who would galvanize support among the population and go on to be the nominees of the two major political parties!

We would have a true “donnybrook” situation, with anyone having the potential to be the nominees, “catch fire”, and go on to be the 45th President of the United States!

If this author was to venture an educated guess, one would come to the following conclusions:

Democrats–The major battle would be among Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley and Mark Warner.

Republicans–The major battle would be among Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Mike Pence and Rob Portman.

The final battle would be between Warren and O’Malley for the Democratic nomination, and between Marco Rubio and Mike Pence for the Republican nomination.

The two finalists would be Martin O’Malley and Marco Rubio, with O’Malley being the winner and the 45th President of the United States!

This is due to the reality of the Electoral College, which strongly favors the Democrats to win the White House in 2016 and beyond, as the Northeast, New England, Upper Midwest, and Pacific Coast are strongly “Blue”, and most of the “swing states” are favored to go “Blue” as well, including Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, and Iowa.

Florida and North Carolina would be more difficult for the Democrats, particularly if Rubio is the GOP nominee, but the electoral vote would still be heavily Democratic, even without those two states!

A Rational, Sensible Proposal: Two Californias, Two Texases, Two Floridas, Two New Yorks, Northern Virginia And Washington DC Unified As A State!

Ronald Leave a comment

There has been a lot of speculation and discussion about the creation of new states, and this was discussed in a post on July 4 on this blog.

However, despite the move toward a ballot measure to create SIX Californias, it will NOT happen, and neither will five Texases, nor three New Yorks, nor two Marylands, nor two Illinoises, nor two Pennsylvanias, and even another suggestion, two Colorados!

However, it is NOT unreasonable to suggest that there could be a division of the following states into two states each–California, Texas, Florida, and New York.

A Northern and Southern California would make sense, as the state is overly large, with 38 million people, with a division being the North California state would include San Francisco and Sacramento and the Silicon Valley, and Central California, while South California would include Los Angeles and San Diego, and the heavily populated areas around LA and San Diego.

A Northern and Southern Texas might be divided along the following lines—North Texas being the Panhandle and West Texas along with Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area; and South Texas including East Texas, Austin, Houston, and San Antonio and down to the Rio Grande River boundary line except for the Western area around El Paso, which would be in North Texas.

A division of New York would be the New York City counties, along with Long Island, and Westchester and Rockland Counties, a total of nine counties, with the other 53 counties North of the city of New York (including Albany, Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester) being named New Amsterdam, the original Dutch colony name.

A division of Florida would be Northern Florida and Central Florida as North Florida, and South Florida being the counties of the Keys, Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties.

Finally, a good idea would be to add Northern Virginia to Washington DC, name it Columbia, and revive the old failed amendment for statehood for DC, by adding those northern Virginia suburbs to the nation’s capital, and ending the discrimination against the 700,000 residents of DC, by making them part of a state, with the state known as North Virginia!

No more Congressional seats in the House of Representatives would be created, except for the addition of the District of Columbia to the Northern Virginia suburbs, so there would be 436 House members, instead of 435. However, there would then be 55 states, creating ten new US Senators; requiring 56 instead of 51 Senators to be a majority; 61 instead of 55 to end filibuster on executive branch nominations; and 66 instead of 60 Senators to end all other filibusters.

Commentary on this is welcome!

Nations Breaking Up: Could It Happen Among American States?

Ronald 1 Comment

We are living in a world where nation states have broken up, and where the potential for more such breakups is increasing.

Yugoslavia broke up into multiple nations in the 1990s, as did the old Soviet Union, and Czechoslovakia.

Sudan broke up into two nations in 2011, and Iraq seems on the road to a similar breakup, sadly through religious revolution, fanaticism and loss of life.

There has been the threat in the past of Quebec breaking away from Canada, although that seems less likely now.

Scotland will decide whether to split from the United Kingdom in a referendum this September.

There are threats of the breakup of Belgium and Spain, where strong nationality groups wish for independence.

At the same time, there has been secessionist talk by right wing groups in Texas, and even outgoing Governor Rick Perry talked up the idea a few years back, and then abandoned such talk.

But seriously, without violence, not like the Civil War in the 1860s, there are ideas floating out on the political wilderness of the possible future breakup of eight states, and the theoretical creation of an additional 16 states as a result, requiring an additional 32 US Senators, making the total possibly 132, instead of the present 100, in the upper chamber, while not changing the number of members of the House of Representatives.

These possibilities are as follows:

California–six states instead of one—Jefferson (rural Northern California); North California (centered about Sacramento, the state capital); Silicon Valley (San Francisco and San Jose); Central California (Bakersfield, Fresno and Stockton); West California (Los Angeles and Santa Barbara); and South California (San Diego and Orange Counties).

Texas–five states instead of one—New Texas (Austin, the present state capital and College Station); Trinity (Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington and Tyler); Gulfland (Houston, Corpus Christi, Galveston); Plainland (Lubbock, Amarillo, Waco, Abilene); and El Norte (San Antonio, El Paso, Brownsville).

New York–three states instead of one—Suburban counties of Southeast New York (Westchester, Rockland, Dutchess and Orange Counties) and Long Island (Nassau and Suffolk); New York City (Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan, Bronx, Staten Island); and Upstate New York (including the rest of the state, including Rochester, Buffalo, Syracuse, Binghamton).

Florida—two states instead of one—South Florida (the Keys, Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach); and Northern Florida (the rest of the state).

Illinois–two states instead of one—Chicago and near suburbs; and the rest of the state.

Pennsylvania–two states instead of one—Philadelphia and near suburbs; and the rest of the state, including Pittsburgh and Harrisburg).

Virginia–two states instead of one—Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC; and the rest of the state.

Maryland–two states instead of one—Baltimore, Annapolis, and Washington DC suburban counties (including Montgomery and Prince George’s County) and three rural eastern shore counties; and Western Maryland.

Is any of this likely to happen? Probably not, but great food for thought. It would require revolutionary changes in the US Senate, and would create new issues of which party would benefit, the Democrats or the Republicans, since the major metropolitan areas would be separate from the more rural counties in these eight states, and it would create a new dynamic in American politics hard to predict long term!

Barack Obama Totally Correct: GOP Will NEVER Win Presidency Again Unless They Return To Political Center!

Ronald 2 Comments

President Barack Obama has made a statement that cannot be contradicted!

IF the Republican Party moves away, at some point, from the extremist right wing of the Tea Party Movement, and the influence of the old Southern Democratic racists turned Republicans because of the Civil Rights Act of fifty years ago, then they have the opportunity, and even likelihood, of eventually regaining the White House!

But if they insist on alienating women, African Americans, Latino and Asian American citizens and immigrants, labor, gays and lesbians, environmentalists, those who believe in science over religion, poor people, the middle class, educated people, and those who believe government is good rather than evil, then they will, Obama says, NEVER win the Presidency again.

The nation is turning “Blue” over time in Texas, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, and already much of the Midwest has become more definitely “Blue”, as well as Florida and Virginia.

So, as Obama states, it is all up to the Republican Party! Moderate your right wing extremism, or your party is in the dustbin of history, as America is not a mean spirited, racist, nativist nation, just many of those who choose to call themselves Republicans.

Republican Governors With Presidential Ambitions Falling Like Flies In Political Scandals!

Ronald Leave a comment

So now it is THREE Republican Governors who have had Presidential ambitions, who are falling like flies in political scandals!

First, it was former Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, who now faces trial and the likelihood of prison for financial irregularities.

Then it was New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who is enmeshed in a number of scandals about his use of funds, and his payback to those who oppose him, including the blockage in Fort Lee, New Jersey of the George Washington Bridge.

And now it is Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who had a recall campaign in 2012, and used outside groups to raise money, in unison with his own staff, an illegal action that could lead to criminal charges!

So three Governors with overriding ambition, and three arrogant, nasty, abusive Governors in their dealings with the news media, critics, and the general public, and all having a sense of entitlement!

But the more cocky and self serving they are, the more dramatic the fall!

Do not be surprised if all three Governors end up in prison, a place they richly deserve, and the likelihood of the states of New Jersey and Wisconsin is an overthrow of the Republicans in the Governorship, just as happened in Virginia with the election of Terry McAuliffe in November 2013!

Did Veiled Anti Semitism Help To Defeat Eric Cantor In His Congressional District?

Ronald 2 Comments

Eric Cantor, the House Majority Leader, lost his party’s nomination to an opponent who constantly talked about his Christian faith, and credited his victory to God!

Cantor is the ONLY non Christian Republican officeholder in Congress, a proud Jew of the Conservative (moderate) brand of Judaism, and a very strong supporter of Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He managed to win public office in Congress, and earlier in the state legislature, despite his being jewish in an area around Richmond, where the Jewish population is only one fourth of one percent!

Since only 65,000 people voted in the GOP primary, in an area with many rural voters, many of whom have never interacted with Jews, it makes one wonder if anti Semitism may have played a role in his defeat. The margin of victory, about 6,500 votes, makes that scenario a possibility!

This is not an assertion that Eric Cantor lost for this reason, as his arrogance and cockiness, and lack of contact with much of his district, spending an inordinate amount of time in nearby Washington, DC as second ranking Republican, certainly played a major role in his defeat. His stand on immigration reform may also have undermined him, plus the opposition of right wing talk show hosts Laura Ingraham and Mark Levin (himself Jewish).

But since there is a right wing Christian element of anti Semitism out there in the population, particularly in rural areas, even the thought or possibility of Cantor’s religious beliefs playing a role in his defeat, is very disturbing!

It is certainly of concern, in any case, that the Republican Party in Congress now is all white (except for appointed Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina), all Christian (much of it extreme right wing), and heavily male and Southern or Great Plains.

This is not representative of America now, or its long range future!

Tea Party And Right Wing Talk Radio Against Kevin McCarthy As House Majority Leader!

Ronald 3 Comments

Now that Eric Cantor is being forced out of Congress by his Virginia district, the battle is on over who should be House Majority Leader, and the Tea Party Movement and Right Wing Talk Radio has come out fighting against present House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy of California.

Right wing radio critics, including Mark Levin and Laura Ingraham, who worked against Eric Cantor and for his opponent in the primary, David Brat, condemn McCarthy as part of the “Establishment”, as much as Cantor and Speaker of the House John Boehner, and the Tea Party is ready to fight anyone connected to any cooperation on any matter with Barack Obama. Despite strong opposition and criticism by Boehner, Cantor, and McCarthy toward Barack Obama, they can all be accused of making some agreements with him, including ending the government shutdown, and planning some kind of immigration reform, although far less than Obama has wanted.

The fact is that McCarthy, as conservative as he is, comes across as “moderate”, less combative in rhetoric, more congenial, a more pleasant persona than either Cantor or Boehner. The fact that he comes from California is seen, however, as a negative, since the Tea Party gets its strength from the “heartland” of the nation.

The fear is that if McCarthy becomes second ranking House Republican, one is looking at the potential future Speaker of the House, as Cantor was thought to be, until his defeat this week.

So the civil war in the GOP continues to fester and boil over!

The Republican Party 2014–Anti Immigrant, Anti Women, Anti Gay, Anti Labor, Anti Science

Ronald 2 Comments

The Republican Party of 2014 has put itself into a box it cannot get out of, and it is doomed to lose the nation short term and long term, as a result!

Yes, the Republicans can win gerrymandered Congressional districts in the “hinterland” of the nation, but they cannot win the African American vote, the Hispanic-Latino vote, the women’s vote, the gay and lesbian vote, the labor vote, or the science and environmental vote!

Without those, they cannot EVER become a serious threat to the Democrats for the White House or the US Senate long term, even if somehow they are able to gain six Senate seats and the majority in the Midterm Elections of 2014!

In 2016, with two thirds of the Senate seats being Republican seats, and with Tea Party activists leaving behind a record of total rejection of government, and total lack of concern for their fellow citizens, the Senate will have a major Democratic majority, and the House has a good chance of being take back by the Democrats!

And with the states of Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina turning “Purple” toward “Blue”, with growing numbers of Hispanics and Latinos, and also the growing Asian vote there and elsewhere; and with Florida and Virginia also more “Blue” than ever in Presidential races, the Republican Party will be “toast” as a serious political opposition!

There would have to be a major realignment of the GOP for this pessimistic assessment of its future to change, but the spokesmen for the party, and the candidates jockeying for position for 2016, shows otherwise.

The Republican Party is deaf, dumb, and blind at their own self destruction, and their reward will be total repudiation by all but the ignorant and biased of the “hinterland”, who want an America which is no longer there, the America of the 1950s, when we favored the traditional immigrant groups from Northern and Western Europe; when women “knew their place” as housewives and mothers, and not workers and educated; when those who were gay or lesbian “stayed in the closet”: when the labor movement offered tons of blue collar jobs that no longer exist, due to the greed and selfishness of American corporations looking for “cheap” labor overseas; and when we abused the environment, and yet woke up to the importance of science after the Soviet orbiting of the first space satellite, Sputnik I!

Those days are gone forever, but the GOP is like an ostrich with its “head in the sand”, denying reality, and for that, they are, and will be, punished and repudiated!

Do Not Believe Polls Which Predict GOP Senate Majority!

Ronald Leave a comment

So many polls are now predicting that the Republican Party will win control of the US Senate. But polls have been proved wrong before, and the Democrats should not run scared, just run aggressively against the Do Nothing Republicans, similar to what Harry Truman did in 1948!

The Republican Party is wrong on immigration reform; is wrong on the right of workers; is wrong on the treatment of women at work and in their private lives; is wrong on the environment and climate change; is wrong on the need for gun regulation; is wrong on the use of the race card; is wrong on its refusal to promote infrastructure spending; is wrong on its decision to oppose more expenditures on veterans; is wrong in its opposition to ObamaCare; is wrong in its attacks on Social Security and Medicare; is wrong in its efforts to deny voting rights; is wrong in its advocacy of wars everywhere, rather than pursuing diplomacy and peace; is wrong in their anti intellectual, anti science agenda; is wrong in its promotion of theocracy, rather than separation of church and state; and is wrong in its planned strategy to obstruct all judicial and executive nominations and therefore to cripple operation of the courts and government agencies.

The Democrats are likely to keep the following Senators–Mark Pryor of Arkansas; Mary Landrieu of Louisiana; Kay Hagan of North Carolina; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire; Mark Warner of Virginia; and Mark Begich of Alaska.

They have a good chance of defeating Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, with their nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes; win the open Senate seat in Georgia with Michelle Nunn; win the open Senate seat in Iowa with Bruce Braley; win the open Senate seat in Michigan with Gary Peters; and an even chance to win the open West Virginia seat with Natalie Tennant over Republican Shelley Moore Capito.

The only seats seen likely to switch from D to R are: South Dakota and Montana; while the Democrats have a good shot at winning Kentucky and Georgia. With West Virginia possibly going Republican with Capito, and Maine having a chance that Republican Susan Collins loses to Democrat Shanna Bellows, if such happens, it is no gain by the Republicans.

The best prediction is that the Republicans MIGHT gain two seats, falling four states short of the six needed to make Mitch McConnell Majority Leader, with him likely to lose to Grimes in Kentucky, in any case.

The worst case scenario for the Democrats is the loss of South Dakota and Montana; and the loss of West Virginia, therefore meaning a Republican gain of three seats!

And in 2016, with two thirds of the seats being Republicans, the Democrats are sure, in an election where their Democratic Presidential nominee will be heavily favored, to win a large number of additional seats, nearing up to 60 from a possible low of 52 in 2014!

The Political Ticket For President With Julian Castro As Vice Presidential Running Mate In 2016!

Ronald 1 Comment

San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, in his third term as Mayor of the seventh largest city, made quite an impression at the 2012 Democratic National Convention, when he gave a speech that reminded many of Barack Obama’s speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention.

An attractive, charismatic politician of Mexican American heritage, with his identical twin Joaquin Castro a member of the House of Representatives, the San Antonio Mayor gained an image as someone to watch, and he will be only 42 in 2016.

With the Hispanic-Latino population and vote multiplying, and with Texas seen as a battleground in the future, and even possibly in 2016, Julian Castro is the ideal Vice Presidential running mate, whether for Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Martin O’Malley, Elizabeth Warren, Mark Warner, or really ANY other Democratic Presidential nominee!

Castro has run the seventh largest city with distinction, and now is being nominated to be Barack Obama’s Housing and Urban Development Secretary, moving him to Washington and the center of national politics.

Castro is articulate, knowledgeable, and puts Texas and Georgia and North Carolina into play for 2016, along with improving the odds of Virginia and Florida remaining Democratic.

His youth (42) at the time of the election is an excellent balance for Hillary (69) or Joe (74), as it offers the experience and seasoning of either Hillary or Joe, while adding the largest Southern state to the game of Democratic party advancement. His urban experiences also are a major plus.

Castro’s only negatives are his last name, which Republicans will probably utilize to leave the impression that he is related to Cuban leaders Fidel and Raul Castro. Also, the anti immigrant policy of right wingers will use the fact that Castro is Mexican American as a racist attack on all Hispanics and Latinos, which will be to their detriment, as immigration will become an issue that will harm the Republican Party, as rightfully it should!

Overall, a great move to have Castro head the HUD Department and be available as the BEST running mate for Vice President for ANY Democratic Presidential nominee, insuring a massive win for the Democrats for the White House in 2016!