Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center For Politics has come out with an estimate of what is likely to occur in the Presidential Election of 2024.
Sabato projects that the Democrats are ahead in states that add up to 260 electoral votes, ten short of the number needed to win the Presidency.
The Republicans are said to be ahead in states that add up to 235 electoral votes.
Democratic leaning states that are not solid include Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico.
Republican leaning states that are not solid include Texas, Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska.
So according to the Sabato estimate, there are only FOUR states that are truly “Toss-Ups”—Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia or the “WANG’ states, with a total of 43 electoral votes combined.
If everything as estimated occurred, Georgia with 16 electoral votes would be enough for the Democrats to win, while Arizona with 11 electoral votes, or Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes separately would also be enough for the Democrats to win, and with Nevada only having 6 electoral votes, so not enough to win.
Of course, this does not include the possibility of the two states which allow splitting of electoral votes–Maine and Nebraska–having a district vote for the opposition in that state’s popular vote count.
In 2008, Nebraska went for John McCain but gave one electoral vote to Barack Obama in the Second Congressional District; and in 2016, Maine went for Hillary Clinton, but gave one electoral vote to Donald Trump in the Second Congressional District.