William Howard Taft

The Longevity Of Presidents Analyzed

Ronald 4 Comments

There is a lot of debate and discussion about Joe Biden’s age.

One needs to examine the history of Presidents and longevity.

In the 20th and 21st centuries, the time of modern America, 40 percent of Presidents (8) have had a short life span, as witness:

Theodore Roosevelt 60
William Howard Taft 72
Woodrow Wilson 67
Warren G. Harding 57
Calvin Coolidge 60
Franklin D. Roosevelt 63
John F. Kennedy 46
Lyndon B. Johnson 64

Other Presidents, 60 percent, (12), have had very long life spans, including

Herbert Hoover 90
Harry Truman 88
Dwight D. Eisenhower 78
Richard Nixon 81
Gerald Ford 93
Jimmy Carter 99 on the coming October 1
Ronald Reagan 93
George H W Bush 94
Bill Clinton 77 and counting
George W. Bush 77 and counting
Donald Trump 77 and counting
Joe Biden 81 on the coming November 20

Then, in a classification by himself, is Barack Obama (62), and seemingly in great health and physical shape!

My conclusion: Presidents and people in general are living longer and healthier, and one cannot deduce from the problems of Senator Diane Feinstein and Senator Mitch McConnell that President Joe Biden will be unable to finish his time in office.

But if, sadly, that becomes an issue, there is absolutly nothing wrong, and a lot very positive, about the ability of Vice President Kamala Harris to take over the Presidency.

When one considers Vice Presidents who succeeded their Presidents during a term, three of them—-Theodore Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson excelled—-while the other six who succeeded were far from outstanding.

But we managed to survive all of the time, and Kamala Harris is 59 years old, the general age of most Presidents upon taking office, and perfectly capable of being Chief Executive if an emergency arises!

Centennial Of Warren G. Harding’s Death, And Accession Of Calvin Coolidge Coming Up On August 2-3!

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The centennial of the death of President Warren G. Harding is arriving on Wednesday, August 2, with Harding passing away of natural causes in San Francisco, shocking the nation, as Harding was on the way to finishing a Western tour, which had included visiting the territory of Alaska.

The swearing in of President Calvin Coolidge took place in the early morning hours on August 3, with Coolidge being sworn in at his father’s homestead in Vermont, where Coolidge was visiting, and with his father, a local justice of the peace, swearing in his son, before he returned to Washington DC, and was again sworn in later in the day.

This was the sixth time a President had died in office, and was the second time that the Vice President who succeeded to the Presidency went on to win a full term of office in 1924, following Theodore Roosevelt, who succeeded the assasinated William McKinley in 1901, and went on to win a full term in 1904.

Harding is regarded by scholars as a failed President, with massive scandals occurring, similar to those of a half century earlier under President Ulysses S. Grant in the 1870s. While he had some successes, he is ranked in the bottom five of all Presidents, in the same category as Andrew Johnson, James Buchanan, Donald Trump, and Franklin Pierce.

Calvin Coolidge is perceived as higher in ranking, generally at the top of the bottom third of Presidents, but shortly after he left office, the Great Depression occurred, and his administration is perceived as having had major negative impact on the economy which led to the Crash on Wall Street seven months after his retirement.

Certainly, the Presidency is seen as having declined in the 1920s, after the Progressive Era of Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, and Woodrow Wilson, and seeing rising fortunes after Herbert Hoover, with the coming to the Presidency of Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1932 Presidential election.

“No Labels” Independent Group A Disaster In The Making!

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The “No Labels” Independent group is an organization forming to provide a potential third party choice for the Presidency in 2024, due to many in the group and nationally having strong feelings that the nation deserves a choice beyond Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

This group, which has both Democrats and Republicans who are flirting with the effort, include many who most Americans have no awareness of, but also some major names:

Joe Lieberman, former Democratic and Independent Senator from Connecticut
Joe Manchin, Democratic Senator from West Virginia
Pat McCrory, former Republican Governor of North Carolina
Larry Hogan, former Republican Governor of Maryland

In a theoretical scenario, this group thinks the potential of the following Electoral College result is possible:

Republican states Texas (40), Nebraska (5), and Florida (30)–75
Democratic states Virginia (13), Illinois (19), Washington (12)–44
“Swing” states Arizona (11), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19)–45

A total of 164 electoral votes, denying either the Republican or Democratic candidate enough electoral votes to win the Presidency!

and 37 percent of the popular vote, causing the House of Representatives, one vote per state, to choose the Presidential winner, and with 26 states at the moment having a Republican majority in the House delegation!

The theory is that six out of ten moderate-independent voters are open to supporting a third party ticket at this point!

But the likelihood is such an effort would lead to Donald Trump winning over Joe Biden, a horrendous development!

This would be extremely destructive, and there is no possible way for an independent candidate to win the Presidency, as the closest we have ever reached that was Theodore Roosevelt, Progressive (Bull Moose) candidacy in 1912, winning six states, 27.5 percent of the popular vote, and six states with a total of 88 electoral votes.

But TR’s candidacy helped Democrat Woodrow Wilson to win, over Republican incumbent William Howard Taft!

One Term Presidencies That Mattered: Jimmy Carter, George HW Bush!

Ronald 2 Comments

President Joe Biden stated at his end of first year press conference yesterday, that he planned to run for a second term in 2024, and that Kamala Harris would again be his running mate.

That is to be expected at this time, but by early 2023, Biden will need to make a final decision on running, so as to open the race to alternative choices if he announces he will retire.

The concept that a President must seek reelection was not the case with three Presidents, who decided not to run–James K. Polk in 1848, James Buchanan in 1860, and Rutherford Hayes in 1880. But Polk, despite not running for another term, is considered to have accomplished his goals, and as it turns out, his health was not good, and he died 105 days after leaving office in 1849.

Buchanan and Hayes are not considered to have had successful terms, and they may have sensed that they could not win reelection.

Other one term Presidents, such as Benjamin Harrison and Herbert Hoover, had horrible depressions to deal with, helping to cause their defeats in 1892 and 1932, and William Howard Taft had a split in his party with former President Theodore Roosevelt, which doomed his campaign for reelection in 1912.

Gerald Ford was a special situation, having not been elected, succeeding Richard Nixon, and having a bad economy, which doomed his desire for election to a full term in 1976, although he is considered in a kind manner at this point, having worked to unite America after the Watergate Scandal and resignation of Nixon.

But the two most recent Presidents defeated for reelection, before Donald Trump, had real accomplishments in office, although they were unable to win a second term, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H. W. Bush in 1992.

Clearly, all Presidents since Rutherford Hayes in 1880, who have survived a term, have attempted to be reelected, but since Biden will be 82 years old weeks after the Presidential Election of 2024, he might decide not to run, or his health might be such that he is told he should not run.

Republican Party Is Selling Its Reputation To Donald Trump, Who Is Hellbent On Destroying The Party!

Ronald 2 Comments

The Republican Party is in the process of destroying its legacy, and selling its reputation to Donald Trump, who is hellbent on destroying the party in his quest for absolute power, and destruction of American democracy!

Whether one agrees or not with the conservative philosophy of the Republican Party throughout its history, the party has added to the constant debate over the nature of government.

The Republican Party had its great leaders with courage and convictions, from the time of the party being founded as a reform party in the 1850s, through its various highs and lows over the past 167 years from 1854 onward.

Its low points included 1912, when William Howard Taft won only two states, 23 percent of the vote, and 8 electoral votes; to 1964, when Barry Goldwater won less than 40 percent of the vote, and only 6 states; to the shock of a reckless businessman, Donald Trump, who was able to hijack the party and its principles in 2016, and now has set out to destroy the party and the nation by refusing to concede defeat in the Presidential Election of 2020, and is a dire threat for the future!

Where are the “Profiles in Courage” that put the welfare of the nation over their own ambitions, and are willing to stand up to Trump Fascism, and its promotion of white supremacy and domestic terrorism, as demonstrated in the January 6, 2021 Insurrection on the US Capitol!

Only a small group is putting the nation and American democracy ahead of their own naked ambitions!

So on this Thanksgiving Day, we have to be thankful that Joe Biden is President, and do everything to insure that the Democratic Party overcomes history, and keeps control, and gains seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate in 2022!

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, Following Tradition Of His Father, Seriously Considering Challenge To Donald Trump Within Republican Party

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It now looks more likely that President Donald Trump may have a second, and potentially, more viable Republican opponent for the Presidential nomination in 2020.

Former Massachusetts Governor William Weld held office from 1991-1997, and was the Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee in the Presidential Election of 2016. He will be 75 years of age in 2020, nearly a year older than Trump. He is a legitimate candidate, but having been out of office for nearly a quarter century, it weakens his ability to draw support.

But now, Maryland Republican Governor Larry Hogan is exploring the idea of announcing, and this should be encouraged.

Hogan has been Governor of a very “Blue” state since 2015, and won his second term in 2018, He has managed to be bipartisan in a state in which the legislature is heavily Democratic. He will be 64 years of age at the time of the election, a full decade younger than Trump.

His father of the same name was a renowned Maryland Republican Congressman from 1969-1975, and served on the House Judiciary Committee that voted three articles of impeachment in 1974 against President Richard Nixon, and the only Republican on the committee to vote for all three impeachment articles. His speech announcing his vote for all three articles of impeachment was truly a “profile in courage” at the time.

Hogan is a rare “moderate” Republican, a centrist and pragmatist, much respected by Democrats. In a June 2018 poll, Hogan had 60 percent support from Democrats. He has a record of environmental reform; immigration reform; support of gay rights and gay marriage; gun control legislation; free community college tuition for middle class and lower class students in the state; supports abortion and reproductive rights for women; and opposed the nomination of Supreme Court Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

The question is whether Hogan or Weld, seen as similar “moderate” Republicans on most issues, have a real chance to stop Donald Trump’s renomination. The argument is that if they could make Trump weakened at all as a result of their challenge, history tells us that an incumbent President with a challenger in his own party, wins the nomination but loses the Presidency, as happened to William Howard Taft, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush in the 20th century.

Barack Obama Fortunate For History That He Is Between George W. Bush And Donald Trump In The Order Of Presidents In Office

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In the long run of history, where a President is in the order of attaining the Presidency really matters.

So, for instance, John Adams is between George Washington and Thomas Jefferson, and while Adams ranks around the middle in ranking of Presidents by historians and political scientists, he is rated much lower than the two Presidents before and after him, who are in the top ten of any listing.

The same goes for William Howard Taft, who is between Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson, both of whom are in the top quarter of Presidents, while Taft is rated in the mid 20s.

And the same is true for George H. W. Bush, who is between Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, both of whom are rated higher than Bush, who is rated in the later teens as President.

On the other hand, Abraham Lincoln comes between the two men usually rated the two worst Presidents, James Buchanan before him and Andrew Johnson after him.

And it is now clear that Barack Obama, rated 11th in one poll, 8th in another poll, and 17th in a third poll, all within the two years he has been out of the Presidency, is fortunate to have George W. Bush, rated in the 30s, and Donald Trump rated either at the bottom under Buchanan and Andrew Johnson, or at most just above them, insuring he will, like Lincoln, always be rated much better.

The Beginning Of A Challenge To Donald Trump For Renomination: William Weld And Larry Hogan

Ronald 19 Comments

It seems as if the beginning of a challenge to Donald Trump for renomination by the Republican Party has arrived.

Former Massachusetts Governor William Weld (1991-1997) , also the Libertarian nominee for Vice President in 2016 with Presidential nominee Gary Johnson, has indicated he is planning to challenge Trump. He would be 75 at the time of the inauguration in 2021.

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who just won reelection last year by a 12 point margin, has also indicated he plans to compete for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2020. He would be 64 at the time of the next election.

Both are moderate Republicans, seen as centrist and pragmatic, and both won office in heavily Democratic states.

Weld has a distinguished aristocratic background starting with ancestors coming over on the Mayflower with the Pilgrims in 1620. He was a counsel with the House Judiciary Committee during the Watergate Impeachment inquiry, and with one of his colleagues being Hillary Rodham, before she married Bill Clinton.

Hogan has the heritage of being the son of a Congressman, with the same name, who, as a member of the House Judiciary Committee in 1974, voted to bring impeachment charges against President Richard Nixon.

Can either of them seriously overcome the advantages of being an incumbent President?

History tells us when incumbent Presidents are challenged for renomination, invariably, the President defeats his opponent, but then loses the election.

So even if Weld or Hogan cannot defeat Trump, hopefully, they can weaken him enough that he will follow in the tradition of William Howard Taft, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush, who overcame, respectively, Theodore Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan, Ted Kennedy, and Pat Buchanan, and yet lost the second term as President.

Growing Likelihood Of Challengers To Donald Trump For GOP Presidential Nomination In 2020

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With Donald Trump being “individual No. 1”, clearly the center of probes by Robert Mueller, the Special Counsel, and also by the Southern District of New York, the likelihood grows of Republicans, who have just come off a 40 seat loss in the House and control of the lower chamber, being alarmed enough that serious challengers to Donald Trump’s nomination for a second term seem likely.

One can expect the following Republicans to consider challenges to Trump.

Outgoing Ohio Governor John Kasich.

Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse.

Utah Senator Mitt Romney, the 2012 Presidential nominee.

Outgoing Arizona Senator Jeff Flake.

Former South Carolina Governor and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

There could be others as well, but this list seems quite realistic, although the more that challenge Trump, the less likely there would be success.

It would be much easier if only one challenger took the bait, and went after Trump.

One can think back to 1979-1980, when President Jimmy Carter was challenged by both Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy and California Governor Jerry Brown.  

The one thing about even one challenger to a sitting President is that the result has been that while the President won the nomination, he ended up losing the election, with three of the four times losing massively.

William Howard Taft won only 23 percent in 1912 after being challenged by former President Theodore Roosevelt, and having to deal with TR as the Progressive Party nominee, as well as Democratic nominee Woodrow Wilson.

Jimmy Carter won only 41 percent in 1980 after being challenged by Ted Kennedy and Jerry Brown, and having to deal with an independent nominee, John Anderson, as well as Republican nominee Ronald Reagan.

George H. W.  Bush won only 37 percent in 1992 after being challenged by Pat Buchanan, and having to deal with independent nominee Ross Perot and Democratic nominee Bill Clinton.

At this point, before we begin the new year, it would seem as if John Kasich would have the upper hand on a challenge over others, and that Ben Sasse, representing a new generation of conservative leadership, would be an additional major challenge to Trump, were Sasse willing to mount a campaign.

Of course, any challenge to Trump would also be indirectly a challenge to Vice President Mike Pence as the “heir apparent”.

Is George H. W. Bush The “Best” One Term President In American History, Surpassing James K. Polk, And What About Jimmy Carter?

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Now that George H. W. Bush is part of American history, the question arises whether he should be judged the “best” one term President in American history.

We have had the following 12 one term elected Presidents who finished their term, but were not given a second term:

John Adams
John Quincy Adams
Martin Van Buren
James K. Polk
Franklin Pierce
James Buchanan
Rutherford B. Hayes
Benjamin Harrison
William Howard Taft
Herbert Hoover
Jimmy Carter
George H. W. Bush

Eight of them, all but Polk, Pierce, Buchanan, and Hayes were defeated for reelection, with those four choosing not to run, and all of these four, except Polk, very unpopular and aware that they were not wanted to be nominated for another term.

The usual viewpoint has been that James K. Polk, with the acquisition of the American Southwest by war with Mexico, and acquisition of the Pacific Northwest by the Oregon treaty with Great Britain, was the most successful one term President. Labeled an expansionist and an imperialist by many, the fact that he presided over the greatest expansion of US territory since Thomas Jefferson, has helped him to be regarded by scholars as a “successful” President, rated 12 to 14 in scholarly polls.

Now, some are saying that George H. W. Bush may be greater than Polk, due to his foreign policy accomplishments in particular, including the end of the Cold War, the unification of Germany, and the Persian Gulf War, along with his domestic policies of “A Thousand Points Of Light”, and the Americans With Disabilities Act.

Some on this list, including Van Buren, Pierce, Buchanan, Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, Taft, and Hoover are seen in a poor light, while J. Q. Adams is seen as not having succeeded in his one term, although a great man, and his father, John Adams, criticized for the Alien and Sedition Acts in 1798, curbing civil liberties during his term.

The only other one term President who could be seen as competing would be Jimmy Carter, with his Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel, the Panama Canal Treaty, his Human Rights advocacy, his creation of new cabinet agencies (Departments of Education, Health And Human Services, Energy), and his exceptional record on the environment, but his negatives, including high inflation, the Iranian hostage crisis, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the Cuban Mariel Boat Lift all help to undermine his case.

So, one could argue that Polk and Bush may be competitive as the “best” one term elected President, without a clear cut answer to the question of who was the better President.

It might be best to say that Polk was the best 19th century one term elected President, while Bush was the best 20th century one term elected President, with Jimmy Carter as the runner up in that regard.