Younger Voters

Presidential Election Of 2024 Likely To Hinge On Six States!

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It is very clear that American politics has reached the stage where it can be quite certain that the Presidential Election of 2024 will hinge on six states, where both major party Presidential candidates will spend most of their time and effort on winning just those six states that are likely to be in play!

The Republican nominee, almost certainly Donald Trump, will have the clearcut edge in states with 235 electoral votes, and Democratic President Joe Biden will have the advantage in states with 226 electoral votes.

So 77 electoral votes in six states will decide who wins the White House!

Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Arizona
Nevada

The nation is so bitterly divided that now it all comes down to these six states, unless there turns out to be a suprise.

And in future elections, other states could be in play, depending on voting patterns of new and younger voters!

It used to be that more states were in play, but in the past generation, parties have tended to gain dominance in many states!

Democratic “Blue Wave” Victory Much Greater Than Had Been Imagined Possible

Ronald 8 Comments

It is now evident that the Midterm Elections of 2018 were a revolution in many respects, a true “Blue Wave.”

We now know that 8.8 million more people voted Democratic than Republicans, the widest margin in American history, more than any other midterm election in modern times.

We now know that the Democrats gained 39 seats, and one more possible, in the House of Representatives, greater than anyone could have envisioned, meaning they will have 234 or 235 seats to the Republicans 200 or 201.

We now know that white suburbia, women, younger voters, independents, and racial and ethnic minorities all went over to the Democratic camp by wide margins.

We know know that seven more states have Democratic Governorships, and that such despicable people as Scott Walker, Kris Kobach, David Brat, and all of the Orange County Republican House members (Reagan Country) lost their races to Democrats.

We know that now Arizona and Nevada, along with Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania seem more likely to go Blue in 2020.

However, we also know that Democrats and progressives lost in Florida, Georgia, and in the Texas Senate race, and that seats were lost in the Senate in Florida, Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota.

Overall, with some disappointments, a great result, and optimism about 2020.

The Age Issue’s Effect On Hillary Clinton, But Also Possibly On Bernie Sanders, Against Younger Republicans in November!

Ronald 28 Comments

The Iowa Caucuses results demonstrate a major problem that Hillary Clinton faces–the age issue.

A vast majority of young voters, those under 45, but even more so those under 29, supported Bernie Sanders, the oldest candidate ever to seek the nomination of a major political party.

Even John McCain (age 72)and Bob Dole (age 73) were not the same age at the time of the election campaign as Bernie Sanders.

Even Ronald Reagan (age 73) was “younger” when seeking reelection in 1984!

How is it that young voters, who flocked to Barack Obama, age 47 in 2008, now love Bernie Sanders, age 75 by the time of the election?

What is it about Hillary Clinton age 69) that makes young Democratic voters dislike her that much, when young voters back in 1992 liked her husband, Bill Clinton, age 46?

This is a serious issue, as it looks more likely that Hillary, the likely Democratic nominee, will face a much younger Republican candidate in Ted Cruz, age  45, or more likely, Marco Rubio, also 45 but five months younger than Cruz.  It means that the age difference would be almost 24 years.

The argument that either Cruz or Rubio are not “old” enough or experienced enough to be President is an argument that will not work, as John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and particularly Barack Obama, were accused of the same “weakness”, but all became President.

To have the Democratic nominee, either Hillary or Bernie (six years older) as the “old” candidate, against a young Republican such as Cruz or Rubio, is unprecedented in American history.

A difference of 24 years is not the all time difference, as John McCain was 25 years older than Barack Obama in 2008; Bob Dole was 23 years older than Bill Clinton in 1996; and George H. W. Bush was 22 years older than Bill Clinton in 1992, but in each case the Democrat was the younger nominee.

But if it was Bernie Sanders against Cruz or Rubio, the difference would be nearly 30 years!

This time, it will be the opposite, with the Democrat much younger than the Republican, and one has to wonder how it might affect the election results, particularly with younger voters in the Democratic Party gravitating to Bernie instead of Hillary, and possibly younger voters in general going for Cruz or Rubio due to youthfulness!

Bernie Sanders And The Younger Voter: A Special Connection!

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One of the most interesting developments of the 2016 Presidential campaign is the appeal of Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont among younger voters, specifically under the age of 45.

This means those born after 1970 and up to 1998, the age group which has no issue with gay rights and gay marriage; abortion rights for women; legalization of marijuana; supportive of immigration reform; and belief in the need to deal with climate change.

This group is the future of America, and it is a progressive group overwhelmingly by any measurement!

So in the midst of Republican Donald Trump publicity, Bernie Sanders’ s supporters, who Hillary Clinton desperately needs  if she ends up as the Democratic nominee for President, which is still most likely, any attempt by Clinton to trash Bernie will backfire on her candidacy in November.

It is possible that if Hillary wins but leaves “bad blood” with Bernie, that these younger voters, including first time voters, might just sit out the campaign in disgust!

Will the younger voters allow the older, less educated, and much  more white composition voters who support Trump carry the day?

This will be a crucial issue in the Fall campaign, how to keep the younger voters Democratic, rather than have them sit out the election, and possibly give the “Archie Bunker” candidate the opportunity to do his destructive deeds in the Oval Office!

Census Bureau Report On Presidential Election Turnout Bad News For Republican Future

Ronald 3 Comments

The Republican Party is in deep trouble for the long term future, as Census Bureau figures show a decline in percentage of whites who voted, while African Americans surpassed the percentage of whites voting.

In the Midwest and Southeastern US, the black vote grew dramatically, which is why Republicans are still determined to do whatever they can to prevent the black vote by whatever method they can conjure up. 66.2 percent of black voters participated, compared to 64.1 percent of the white voters participating.

Voter turnout declined overall to 62 percent from 64 percent, and it is clear that younger voters have declined in percentage, from 48 percent to 41 percent.

Women had 64 percent participating, compared to men at 60 percent, with white turnout declining n 39 states among both men and women.

The groups that demonstrated least participation include single people, unemployed, renters, and those with only high school or some college education. a worrisome sign for the future, with the economy’s improvement the only way these groups might increase participation.

If the Democrats can keep the same groups and percentages backing them in 2016 as occurred in 2012, the Republican party will rapidly decline as a contender for the White House, and first signs are that Hillary Clinton will be likely to keep the coalition going and,, possibly, improve on it!